The Circuit

Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss Nvidia GTC, AI infrastructure, optical networking, and the future of semiconductor technology. They analyze Nvidia's strategic positioning, product innovations, and industry trends shaping the AI and data center landscape. They also talk OFC/optical trends and Micron earnings. 

In this episode of The Circuit, hosts Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg dive into NVIDIA’s strategic positioning within the AI infrastructure stack, colloquially referred to as a "five-layer cake". They dissect NVIDIA’s recent push into open-source models, comparing it to Intel’s historical dominance through Linux optimizations, while questioning the true intent behind NVIDIA’s $26 billion "investment" in open-source R&D. The conversation shifts to the rapidly evolving world of "agentic orchestration," where AI agents collaborate across different models to maximize efficiency and token spend. Finally, the duo explores the broader hardware ecosystem, including Meta’s ambitious six-month...

Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg analyze the latest earnings reports from Broadcom and Marvell, discuss the future of AI semiconductors, optical vs copper interconnects, and Apple's strategic moves in affordable devices. They explore industry trends, supply chain dynamics, and technological innovations shaping the semiconductor and consumer electronics markets.

In this episode, Ben and Jay discuss a whirlwind week of announcements in the tech industry, focusing on AMD's partnership with Meta, NVIDIA's impressive quarterly performance, and OpenAI's significant funding round. They explore the implications of these developments for the semiconductor market, the rise of AI agents, and the future of SaaS. The conversation highlights the importance of profitability, strategic partnerships, and the evolving competitive landscape in the tech sector.

In this episode of The Circuit, Ben Bajarin, Jay Goldberg, and Paul Karazuba discuss the current state of the semiconductor industry, focusing on the impact of tariffs, supply chain challenges, and the shift from copper to fiber in networking. They explore the inflection points driving demand for AI compute and the potential for mergers and acquisitions in the sector. The conversation highlights the complexities of navigating geopolitical tensions and the evolving landscape of technology and infrastructure.

In this episode, Ben and Jay discuss various topics related to the tech industry, focusing on hyperscalers, cloud computing, and the memory market. They analyze the earnings of Nebius and CoreWeave, the implications of heavy asset businesses, and the dynamics of AI and memory. The conversation also covers the performance of Applied Materials and networking companies like Cisco and Arista, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in these sectors.

In this episode, Ben and Jay discuss the significant surge in capital expenditure (CapEx) among major tech companies, dubbed 'CapEx Palooza.' They explore investor sentiment and market reactions to these expenditures, the implications of backlogs and demand in the tech sector, and the future of AI and cloud services. The conversation also delves into the dynamics of CapEx spending among hyperscalers, emerging trends in semiconductor mergers and acquisitions, and the impact of rising memory prices on consumer electronics. Additionally, they highlight the strategic acquisition of Silicon Labs by Texas Instruments and the potential of timing technologies in the...

This episode of The Circuit dives into the current "gold rush" of semiconductor earnings, navigating the tension between unprecedented demand and the hard physical constraints of the supply chain. Hosts Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg explore why the current Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) cycle is structurally different from the past, the internal "compute wars" happening within hyperscalers like Microsoft and Meta, and the surprising volatility in the storage and analog markets.Whether it's the "AI hotel" backlog or the high-stakes memory negotiations at Apple, this discussion provides a deep look at the plumbing behind the AI revolution.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss Intel's recent earnings report, highlighting the company's strong Q4 performance but disappointing guidance due to wafer capacity constraints. They explore the challenges Intel faces in scaling its foundry operations, the market's reaction to the earnings call, and the strategic decisions being made by Intel's leadership. The conversation also delves into the complexities of advanced packaging and yield issues, as well as the future opportunities for Intel in the semiconductor industry and the importance of customer relations.

In this episode of The Circuit, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the launch of Ben's new publication, "The Diligent Stack." The duo then performs a deep dive into TSMC’s recent earnings, analyzing the risks of semiconductor cyclicality, the massive CapEx requirements for the future, and the specific bottlenecks in advanced packaging (CoWoS). Later, they shift focus to OpenAI’s partnership with Cerebras and the introduction of ads to fund massive compute needs. Finally, they break down the latest data on GPU pricing, highlighting the significant premiums hyperscalers charge compared to NeoClouds and the difficulty of tracking pricing for...

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the highlights from CES 2023, focusing on the significant advancements in robotics, AI infrastructure, and the competitive landscape among major tech companies like NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel. They explore the themes of modularity in data centers, the evolving role of CPUs, and the challenges posed by memory supply constraints. The conversation also touches on the future of autonomous vehicles and the integration of AI in everyday technology, emphasizing the rapid pace of innovation in the tech industry.

In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg engage with Benedict Evans to explore the current state of AI development, its historical context, and future predictions. They discuss the potential for an AI bubble, the importance of productization for user adoption, and the varying levels of AI integration across different industries. The conversation also touches on the comparison between Nvidia and Sun Microsystems, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in the AI landscape.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin, Jay Goldberg, and Austin Lyons delve into the evolving landscape of networking, particularly in the context of AI and GPU technologies. They discuss the transition from traditional networking methods to more complex AI-driven networking, the significance of scaling strategies, and the critical role of SerDes in modern data centers. The conversation also touches on the ongoing debate between copper and optical networking solutions, highlighting the challenges and innovations in the field.

This discussion analyzes the evolving landscape of semiconductor networking and custom silicon, anchored by recent updates from Marvell and Broadcom. Ben and Jay review Marvell’s Industry Analyst Day, noting the company’s strategic pivot toward networking and optical interconnects over pure custom logic. They debate the technical and timeline challenges of shifting AI clusters from copper to optical (fiber) cabling, contrasting Google’s proprietary all-optical approach with the broader merchant market. The conversation then moves to Broadcom’s recent earnings, dissecting the market’s negative reaction to CEO Hawk Tan’s low-energy performance, the looming competitive threat of MediaTek at...

In this episode, Ben and Jay discuss a range of topics including Ben's health update, Amazon's recent AWS event focusing on AI compute, the competitive landscape with Nvidia and Google, Marvell's earnings and challenges in custom silicon, networking innovations with DPUs, Marvell's acquisition of Celestial, Nvidia's investment in Synopsys, Intel's resurgence in advanced packaging, and the leadership changes at Apple. The conversation highlights the evolving dynamics in the tech industry, particularly in AI and cloud computing.

In this conversation, Ben Bajarin discusses the recent innovations surrounding NanoBanana and its new feature, Notebook LM, which has significantly impacted the way infographics are created. He highlights the ease with which users can transform data and text into visually appealing infographics, showcasing the power of AI in data visualization.

The conversation explores the dynamics of market competition, particularly focusing on AMD's position and the strategies of hyperscalers. The discussion delves into game theory as a framework for understanding potential future scenarios in the tech industry. They also discuss key neocloud earnings and engage in a conversation on if these companies are REITs or neoclouds. 

This episode argues that today’s AI exuberance fits a familiar pattern: bubbles misallocate capital on the way up but leave behind productive infrastructure that powers the next S-curve. We revisit the “boom-bust-build-out” cycle and apply it to compute and the grid, note why “good enough” AI latency could flip capex behavior, and push back on modeling everything in gigawatts—useful for planning, risky for strategy. On companies: ARM’s quarter was solid, with rising royalties/CSS stickiness and a strongly implied first-party chip effort complemented by the DreamBig memory-controller acquisition to improve AI-era CPU roles. Qualcomm benefits from a higher-ASP A...

The conversation delves into the competitive landscape of cloud computing, focusing on Nvidia's ambitions and the fragmentation of the market with numerous Neo clouds. Jay Goldberg discusses the implications of this fragmentation for Nvidia and its customers, who are increasingly seeking to develop their own custom silicon.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss Intel's recent earnings report, highlighting a sense of stability in the market compared to previous downturns. They explore the demand for CPUs, particularly in the enterprise sector, and the implications of upcoming product launches. The conversation shifts to Intel's foundry developments, where they express optimism about new manufacturing processes and customer engagement. They also analyze the competitive landscape of AI compute infrastructure, particularly focusing on Amazon's challenges with its Tranium chips and the implications of Anthropic's partnership with Google. Finally, they delve into the future of AI agents, discussing the...

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent industry discussion (confusion?) on GPU depreciation.  Jay Goldberg was also at OCP this week and they disucss takeaways from the networking show related to AI compute and AI datacenter. 

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent partnership between OpenAI and AMD, exploring its implications for the AI compute landscape. They delve into the competitive dynamics between AMD and NVIDIA, OpenAI's ambitions to become a hyperscaler, and the financial challenges associated with massive AI infrastructure investments. The conversation shifts to Intel's advancements showcased during a tour of their Fab 52, highlighting their competitive edge in semiconductor manufacturing. Finally, they touch on Qualcomm's acquisition of Arduino and its potential impact on the IoT sector.

Takeaways

OpenAI's partnership with AMD marks a significant...

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg delve into the evolving landscape of hyperscalers and Neo clouds, discussing their definitions, the significance of power contracts, and the shift from Bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure. They explore the challenges posed by storage constraints in the age of AI, the implications of OpenAI's new app Sora, and Meta's acquisition of Rivos for custom silicon development. The conversation culminates in a reflection on the importance of semiconductor manufacturing and the future of technology.

In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Michael Cunningham discuss the evolving landscape of semiconductor recruitment, focusing on macro trends, the impact of AI, and the challenges of reshoring manufacturing. They explore the skills in demand, the dynamics of the job market, and provide valuable advice for both entry-level engineers and senior directors looking to advance their careers. The discussion emphasizes the importance of soft skills, ownership in leadership roles, and the need for companies to adapt to the changing technological landscape.

On this week’s episode of The Circuit, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg break down the surprising new partnership between NVIDIA and Intel, including a $5B investment and plans for co-developed CPU–GPU systems for data centers and PCs. They explore what this means for x86 in AI racks, AMD’s competitive position, and why Intel’s silence on Foundry raises big questions. The conversation also touches on Meta’s new Ray-Ban AR glasses—demo fails and all—and Huawei’s unexpected progress in advanced chipmaking. A packed episode full of strategy, irony, and hot takes on the future of semiconductor

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent Apple iPhone launch event, highlighting the innovations in the iPhone Air and Apple's semiconductor strategy. They delve into Synopsys's disappointing earnings report and the subsequent market reactions, as well as Broadcom's position in the semiconductor landscape. The conversation also covers Nvidia's new CPX system and the implications for the market, concluding with a discussion on the funding of the AI boom and the financial strategies of major players like Oracle and OpenAI.

Ben and Jay unpack why Broadcom’s “fourth customer” (~$10B) custom-ASIC win reset sentiment even after a modest beat/raise, and how that squares with hyperscalers second-sourcing away from NVIDIA in the near term. They frame the true battleground as networking—Ethernet’s ubiquity vs. NVLink’s tight integration—then differentiate GPUs’ performance-per-watt advantages from custom ASIC cost calculus, arguing that “lumpiness” (program outcomes) is not “cyclicality” (inventory swings). They stress TAM realism: it’s easy to total up CapEx, but the ROI numerator (revenue/profit) is still unknowable. Structurally, TSMC remains the default winner, with a plausible Intel Foundry financing path in...

In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent earnings reports of Nvidia and Marvell, focusing on the implications for the AI market and the challenges posed by geopolitical factors, particularly regarding China. They analyze Nvidia's growth projections, the complexities of ASICs, and the competitive landscape for AI servers, particularly highlighting Dell's position in the market. The discussion also touches on the nuances of CapEx spending and the importance of clear communication from companies to investors.

In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent government investment in Intel, its implications for the semiconductor industry, and the competitive landscape of Nvidia's new technology. They explore the future of Intel, the challenges it faces in securing customers, and the significance of Nvidia's Spectrum XGS Ethernet announcement. The discussion also touches on the state of the analog devices market and anticipates Nvidia's upcoming earnings call, highlighting key areas of interest and potential impacts on the industry.

Takeaways

The U.S. government now owns 10% of Intel, signaling confidence in the company.
...

In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss various topics related to the semiconductor industry, including the implications of new regulations on companies like AMD and Nvidia, the challenges faced by cloud computing providers, the market dynamics affecting Applied Materials, and the potential government involvement in Intel's future. They explore the complexities of profitability, market competition, and the evolving landscape of technology and regulation.

Takeaways

New regulations on semiconductors may be unconstitutional but are unlikely to be challenged.
Profitability concerns overshadow the earnings of cloud computing companies.
Demand for GPU compute is...

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the latest earnings from AMD, highlighting their strong performance amidst market fluctuations and concerns about competition in the AI space. They delve into the growing importance of AI networking solutions and the recent release of OpenAI's open-source models, including GPT-5, which introduces a more collaborative approach to AI interactions. The conversation also touches on the uncertain future of AI and the challenges faced by Intel, concluding with a reflection on the evolving landscape of technology and its implications for the market.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the latest earnings reports from major tech companies, exploring themes of market dynamics, investment in AI, and the implications of CapEx spending. They delve into the concept of whether we are in a bubble, the challenges of monetizing AI, and the competitive landscape among tech giants like Google, Meta, and Amazon. The conversation also touches on the potential disruption from Apple in the search market, the role of Nvidia in AI, and the future of companies like Qualcomm and Arm in a rapidly evolving tech environment.

The conversation explores the implications of a potential TSMC monopoly in the semiconductor industry, discussing the risks it poses to pricing, innovation, and competition. The speakers emphasize the need for strategic decisions among semiconductor companies and the importance of considering commercial solutions to mitigate the risks associated with a monopoly.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent developments in the AI and semiconductor industries, focusing on Nvidia and AMD's approval to sell modified chipsets to China, the political dynamics influencing these decisions, and the competitive landscape with Huawei. They also analyze TSMC's earnings, the need for infrastructure upgrades to support AI agents, and the implications of Synopsys' acquisition of Ansys. The conversation concludes with a look at Marvell's leadership change and its potential impact on the industry.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent developments in the RISC-V ecosystem, including Global Foundries' acquisition of MIPS and the implications for the semiconductor industry. They also delve into Intel's challenges with its manufacturing processes and the shifting landscape of AI, highlighting the potential for both growth and caution in the current market dynamics.

In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Professor John Metzler discuss the current state and future prospects of the Japanese semiconductor industry, focusing on key players like TSMC and Rapidus. They explore insights from Metzler's recent trips to Japan, the challenges of talent acquisition, and the broader implications for global semiconductor competition. The discussion highlights the unique approaches being taken in Japan, including the integration of AI and photonics, and the importance of a sustainable business model for new ventures in the semiconductor space.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent Marvell custom semiconductor event, the challenges faced in the custom chip business, and the evolving role of hyperscalers in chip design. They explore the future of ASICs versus GPUs, the growth trajectory of the semiconductor industry, and the impact of software on compute needs. The conversation also delves into chip design innovations, particularly the rise of chiplets, and the changing economics of semiconductor manufacturing.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent developments in the tech industry, focusing on Apple's WWDC and AMD's product roadmap. They explore Apple's integration of AI into its operating system and the implications for developers, as well as AMD's performance and its competitive stance against Nvidia. The conversation also highlights the importance of networking in AI infrastructure and the evolving business models in the AI space.

In this episode, Ben and Jay discuss the latest developments in the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on Broadcom's earnings and the implications of AI on the market. They explore the growth of the semiconductor segment, the challenges in ASIC development, and the innovations in networking with the introduction of Tomahawk 6. The conversation also highlights the increasing importance of storage solutions in AI applications and anticipates upcoming events in the tech world.

In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Austin Lyons discuss Nvidia's recent earnings report, the future of AI and inference, and the dynamics of the AI market, including the impact of China on Nvidia's revenue. They explore the differences between consumer and enterprise workloads, the role of financing in AI server sales, and the challenges of realizing ROI from AI investments. The discussion also touches on real-world applications of AI in business and the future of AI integration in consumer products.