Money, Markets & New Age Investing

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The current macro-economic “narrative” is as follows:

1.      The Consumer remains "strong", with a "healthy" Balance Sheet

2.      The Labor Market remains "solid." 

In today's podcast I use FACTS, data and simple mathematics to COMPLETELY blow up that narrative and debunk the greatest macro-economic myth out there right now, that the Consumer remains in a "strong" position, with a "healthy" balance sheet, and that the Labor market remains "solid". 

The macro-economic data is SOLID, in suggesting the complete OPPOSITE is true, that the Consumer is CHOKING, their Balance Shee...

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As a tsunami of "supply" rolls towards the shores of the US Treasury market ... it’s hard to envision how US Bond yields don't rise further unless, or more realistically until, the Fed takes action, taking the 30-Year T- Bond above 5% and calling into question the underlying "credibility" of the US Bond market.

Indeed, the top-down secular fundamentals for both the US Treasury market and the value of the US currency is DECIDELY BEARISH, as it pertains to the Debt Black Hole the US has entered.

Oddly enough, Greg ha...

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At the risk of aging myself, I vividly remember Mad Magazine as a kid, and the goofy, enigmatic, care-free character Alfred E. Neuman.

Alfred was famous for being care-free with the buzz phrase..."What, Me Worry?"

As the Trade War intensifies, I ask, who is "worried" out there?

Well Donald Trump is hoping China is worried. The Donald is hoping that Fed Chair Powell is worried.

But both of these individuals are giving us their BEST "Alfred E. Neuman" imitation.

What? Me, Worry?<...

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Stagflation, Supermassive Debt Black Holes, Consumer Cocoons, FOMC Policy, Trump Tariffs, the Financial pop-media, the Stock Market, US Dollar and Gold...Greg "talks" all these topics in this recent interview, hosted by an industry legend, the original Wall Street Whiz Kid, Peter Grandich, one-time agent and money manager to some of New York's most iconic professional athletes, now retired.

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A multitude of macro-monetary storm fronts are converging on the US Dollar and are coming from a variety of directions, putting the US currency on the defensive, and opening the door for a technically significant violation of the multi-year bull market trend.

Indeed, the US Dollar is on the verge of executing a major long-term, secular-trend-reversal to the downside, one that would (will) carry serious, game-changing consequences for ALL major markets, particularly as Germany and France move towards fiscal loosening, debt expansion, and money printing to pay for increased defense spending...

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In this episode Greg discusses:

The two biggest macro-economic dislocations in US history, as the main secular "themes" for 2025 (and beyond).

The micro-details in the form of the simple mathematics that clearly illustrate and define those two macro-dislocations.

And the markets...what to do! Two specific strategies that anyone can deploy within the stock market to help protect the purchasing power of your money, income and wealth.

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Among several macro-themes I pushed during last January's 2024 Outlook, I note three that are intertwined with the US Consumer:

One) US Consumer cocoon would “harden” amid deflation in “real” Retail Sales.

Two) Consumers would RELY on Credit Cards to “make ends meet,” thus Delinquencies would soar under intensifying financial pressure, thanks to dangerously LOW savings and ZERO “real” wage growth.

Three) A consumer credit crunch would evolve.

BAM, we entered the final phase, so to speak, as the Fed's Consumer Credit data this week revealed a RARE monthly d...

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By deciding to cut their Fed Funds Policy Rate this past week, amid a renewed rise in CPI price indexes is a clear sign that the FOMC is "acquiescing" to higher general rates of inflation.

Subsequently the US Dollar has broken out to the upside in a big way, which in turn is weighing on US Stock Indexes, Gold along with the entire Metals complex, and even Bitcoin.

What's next for the US economy, the Federal Reserve, the Dollar, and US asset prices?

Greg lays out his...

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In Episode One of Season Three of Money, Markets & New Age Investing Greg Weldon defines the new "D.E.I." for the next four years in the US under Donald Trump.

The new D.E.I. is...

...DEBT

...EASY-MONEY

...INFLATION 

Hear all about the NEW AGE "trends" and find out what Greg envisions for the markets over the next few months, in Season Three, Episode One, of Money, Markets & New Age Investing! 

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Vladimir Lenin once said...

 "The way to crush the bourgeoisie is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation."

While there is controversy as to whether it was in fact Lenin who said that, or the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes, who attributed that line to Lenin following an interview he conducted with the Russian leader...the fact is simple, the US Consumer is being CRUSHED, ground up between the millstones of taxation and inflation.

Here is what Keynes wrote, quoting Lenin...

"As t...

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The "Twin Towers" are gone, but never forgotten. Greg worked in Four WTC for several years, and in the adjacent World Financial Center as well, so it is with all humility and respect that he discusses the macro-economic version of the "Twin Towers", because they are back, standing taller than ever, and putting the US Dollar in harm's way. Greg speaks to the records being set within BOTH the US Federal Budget data, and the US Trade data, as the Twin Tower DEFICITS are a BIG problem, again.

Throw in a...

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It's Season Two, Episode Ten and Greg reviews the dramatic shift in the monetary policy narrative from the Federal Reserve this past week, away from "fighting inflation" to "protecting the economy", following yet another in a string of EXCEPTIONALLY WEAK economic data, culminating in a nightmarish Employment Situation Report on Friday from the BLS.

Greg dissects the data, not only in the US, but also in China, who published equally WEAK macro-economic in the last two weeks, as the two largest economies on the planet are suddenly in a downward race...

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In Episode 9, Greg introduces his new Three Podcast Special Series, "interviews" with a handful of the greatest money managers/traders of all-time, thanks to his colleague of many years, the legendary Jack Schwager, author of the must-read and top-ten all-time financial market book, "Market Wizards".

Yes, Greg has received permission from Jack to share excerpts from this classic book, an abundance of real world blood, sweat and tears lessons from the greatest of all time, several of whom Greg has worked with or for during his long-tenured career. Of course, Greg's...

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There was a mind-numbing Presidential debate this week on national TV, but there is NO "debating" the facts:

Fact -- the US consumer is cocooning, cutting back discretionary spending amid a depletion of savings, maxed-out credit cards, and "real" wages that barely keep pace with (still high) inflation. "Real" (inflation adjusted, in dollar terms) Retail Sales have been NEGATIVE for five consecutive months, in 19 of the last 20 months, and in 24 of the last 27 months. That is a FACT.

Fact -- the US housing market is CRUMBLING, as New and...

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First, don't miss the offer of a FREE Chart Book that accompanies this Episode, with dozens of cool charts on Consumer Credit, Delinquencies, Household Finances, Inflation, Retail Sales, and, ALL the markets we are currently involved with, Financials, Utilities, Consumer Staples and Utilities along with the US Dollar, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper, Base Metals, Uranium, Natural Gas, Bitcoin, Ethereum and more!  Email us at sales@weldononline.com to request this FREE Chart Book.

 As for "Powell Taps Out", Greg notes that at the May FOMC meeting, as he did in March, Je...

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The S+P 500 has risen by +50.8% since the October 2022 low.  The XLK S+P Information-Technology ETF has risen by +88.0% since the October 2022 low.   And since just last October the NASDAQ-100 Index has risen by +31.2% .

The last six-months of this massive bull move in US stocks has been driven by three themes: 

·       Expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024 

·       AI and chip stocks 

·       The perception that the Consumer is "strong" 

Two of these themes have IMPLODED, and the other has run its near-term course, lea...

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Twenty-two global Central Banks held meetings this past week to decide what, if any, changes they would make to their monetary policy stance. More than one-third of those Central Banks (8) voted to CUT their official short-term Policy Rate, TWICE as many as voted to raise rates (4), while 10 of 22 left policy unchanged.

Of those Central Banks that left rates unchanged, the majority of them communicated belief that they would be cutting rates this summer or fall, as global monetary officialdom is starting to ease policy before inflation actually declines to their target...

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You have heard me warning about a coming crisis in US Commercial Real-Estate and how it would link to Small Banks, not only here in the US, but around the world. Moreover, I warned in December about Small Bank Balance Sheets, and cited that as the likely REASON WHY the Fed abandoned their hawkish rhetoric at the year-end meeting. 
 
You have heard me warning about a coming Consumer credit problem, particularly as it relates to out of control borrowing via Credit Cards, and how this would link to the global economy in...

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In Episode #3 of Season Two Greg offers an in depth look at three countries which reflect the three primary and dominant macro-economic "backdrops" - Stagflation, Inflation and Deflation.

Each of these locations offer crystal clear evidence within the data and the market positioning and thus gives us clues as to how these scenarios may emerge in other countries, including the Anglo-nations (AKA USA, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia).

Subsequently we can use these three examples to provide a roadmap to aid in deploying risk capital, depending on which of...

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What Does the FOMC Know, That the Markets Don't? 

Alternative Title: "Jerome Powell goes Mandelbaum on the Market!"
 
Indeed, Jerome Powell and the FOMC stunned markets last week as the US Central Bank did NOT verbally "protest" the uber-dovish Fed Funds Rates "priced into" the futures market for end-2024 (roughly 4.50%, down from 5.00% in October), but rather went DEEPER and MORE DOVISH, with projections that put the FF Policy Rate BELOW 4% by the end of next year. 

The Fed went "Mandelbaum" on the markets..."taking it up a not...

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What began as the smallest of dovish comments among a broad range of hawkish “Fedspeak” from Chairman Powell in his post-FOMC press conference earlier this month, became a rallying cry for many market participants wanting to celebrate their belief that Fed is positioning itself to REFILL the proverbial monetary "punch bowl“… 
 
 ...and...that the risk-on PARTY has started again, after eighteen months of inflation-induced sobriety. 
 
Already the forward short-term interest rate contracts in the EU, UK, and US, are "pricing-in" CUTS in Policy Rates next year. In the US there is now...

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I asked rhetorically in a research piece I wrote last week...is Jerome Powell a "con man"?
 
Of course the answer is a resounding NO. Jay Powell has talked the talk and then walked the walk. He has told us what he thinks, he has told us what he will do, and then he does it, ever since 2018 and the publication of eleven Fed White Papers defining the "new monetary paradigm", which proposed to let inflation rise to whatever level it wanted to without "tolerance bands", to rise high enough to l...

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Just as inflation has retreated and it at least appears that a soft landing is not such a far-fetched thought as we once might have believed, BAM, the "perfect storm" is unleashed on the markets in the Middle East, in what could become a worst-case-scenario. 

We start with China, where the PBOC has remains TIGHT even as the economic data erodes as is best evidenced by a multi-month decline in the year-year rate of change in both Export and Imports. The Chinese Central Bank has been reluctant to cut their Policy R...

Just as inflation has retreated and it at least appears that a soft landing is not such a far-fetched thought as we once might have believed, BAM, the "perfect storm" is unleashed on the markets in the Middle East, in what could become a worst-case-scenario. 

We start with China, where the PBOC has remains TIGHT even as the economic data erodes as is best evidenced by a multi-month decline in the year-year rate of change in both Export and Imports. The Chinese Central Bank has been reluctant to cut their Policy Rate even in light of six-months o...

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Irresponsible money printing and out-of-control deficit spending, exacerbated by (ongoing) supply-demand fundamentals that are increasingly skewed towards supply side issues (AKA shortages relative to demand) leads to inflation (AKA more money chasing fewer goods). 

Inflation leads to a decline in the purchasing power of paper currencies (globally), which in turn leads to an overtly and unrelentingly hawkish monetary policy from Central Banks, in our case the Federal Reserve Bank. A "restrictive" monetary policy leads to rising Bond yields (which is now turning into a global Bond market mini-melt-down), an exponentially higher c...

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In this business one must put ego aside and be willing to be wrong, a lot. Success comes down to unearthing the facts, digging deep into the data-details, connecting the dots globally, and putting ALL the little pieces together to build a picture that reflects the FACTS as they relate to the current situation. 

From there we must be open minded to changes in the macro-monetary environment while conjuring up and contemplating ALL the possible scenarios the current FACTS might portend for the future. As I conjoin the puzzle pieces offered b...

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Is it Mark William Calaway? … or Jerome Powell? … will the REAL "Undertaker" please stand up!

Indeed, the modern-day version of legendary WWF superstar and World Champion "The Undertaker" is none other than the current Chair of the US Federal Reserve Bank, Jerome Powell ... who continued his Steel Cage Death Match this past Friday while on tour in Jackson Hole. Powell has spent the last year wrestling with, grappling with, and battling the great "Inflation Genie", and ultimately only the victor will be allowed out of then cage to h...

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The average Consumer in the US has been forced to borrow money just to pay the monthly bills, and while Consumers have exhaled a sigh-of-relief as inflation spiraled back "down" to 3%...little do they realize the WAR is not over. No, the war has only just begun, as the "base effect" in Energy, THE primary force that drove inflation lower, is done, finished, over, GONE! ...to be replaced next month by a sharp year-year INFLATION in Gasoline, which will could well drive the rate of CPI inflation back above 4%. 

Worse yet, t...

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The infamous "line" from the Hollywood classic "Animal House", when freshman Delta pledge "Flounder" walks into a smokey room with frat brothers sitting around several poker tables and cluelessly asks … "Are you guys playing cards?" 

Today, Greg asks that question of the Fed … using the Fed meeting Minutes from the June Central Bank pow-wow as the likely answer, and then delves into the intricacies and nuance of high stakes poker, the kind of game global Central Banks are now "playing" in terms of when to "fold" their hawkish rate-hiking "hand". Indeed, an en...

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In Episode #9, before Greg gets to the intensifying and already vicious El Nino that has become dominant in the Pacific Ocean...he discusses the Fed and monetary policy, the disinflation in the year over year rate of change in CPI inflation to just 4%, and the polarized price action in the US Dollar. 

Then Greg takes on the US Federal Budget numbers for May, and breaks down what this NIGHTMARE is really all about...enabling an insolvent, and debt addicted government, who must print ever more money on “our dime”, with US Publi...

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While all focus is on the “Debt Ceiling” buffoonery...the Retail Sales report revealed DEEP and DEEPENING contraction in Sales within nearly EVERY type of Discretionary sector-industry…particularly the heretofore resilient Building Material and Garden Supply stores.  At the same time the Fed continues to turn apathetic and complacent phrase when asked about the banking system, saying they EXPECT further tightening in “credit conditions”, and they continue to verbally “attack” the labor market.  How far will the Fed go to fight off thoughts, already priced into the markets, of Fed rate cuts by year end, a lowe...

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Ahead of the May 3rd meeting of the US Federal Reserve Bank's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) the debate is raging ... will and should the Fed hike their official short-term interest (policy) rate again, or not. 

 The year-year rate-of-change in the US Consumer Price Index has disinflated to "only" +5.0% amid a massive single-month decline posted for March as the Energy "Base Effect" started to impact the data. This is a phenomenon that becomes much more intense, and potentially disinflationary, over the next three months, with the potential to bring the PCE in...

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Over the last fifty-two weeks Bitcoin has outperformed the US Stock market (S+P 500 Index) by +42.9%, while Ethereum has outperformed the S+P 500 by +27.2%, and Gold has outperformed by +17.0% despite a +4% appreciation in the US Dollar Index over the last year.

The FOMC’s about-face on Balance Sheet “shrinkage” (AKA QT) and expansion of $297 billion in a single week, THE LARGEST EVER (excluding three consecutive weeks at the height of the pandemic), has shaken markets … and is the final piece of a bigger picture dynamic that is BULLISH for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Si...

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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has summoned the ghost of Paul Volcker, circa 1978, with a monetary regime that is hell-bent on generating PAIN, economic pain, as a means to "defeating" inflation. Powell has pledged to use the Volcker "playbook", draconian rate hikes that squelches final demand to bring it into line with lower supply, even if it means sparking a recession. But it goes further, as Powell cannot justify pausing the monetary tightening until there is DISINFLATION in ASSET PRICES too! Pain in stocks, and a Gold price that is NOT threatening to bust...

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Greg discusses the UNPRECEDENTED growth in debt during 2022, both public debt and private debt, with the understanding that reliance on printing exponentially more and more money, as a means of economic survival, is ultimately a losing hand. This is especially true when Global Debt holds an unbeatable hand, an Ace-High Royal Flush, suited in Diamonds (for the obvious irony) … 10 of Diamonds is Private Debt (Consumer, Corporate, Unfunded Pensions) … Jack of Diamonds is CB Balance Sheets … Queen of Diamonds, International USD Debt … the King of Diamonds is "Public" Debt (AKA Government Debt) … and the Ace of Dia...

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Wow, SO much to talk about in Episode #3. Greg starts with a discussion of US Household sentiment as it pertains to their current/future financial "situation", for better, or worse. Further, he looks back at inflation in 2022, linking it to depleted Household Savings, record consumer credit creation, and outright deflation in "real" wages-income, along with a massive "liquidity drain" in the monetary system and Bond markets, with the latter becoming unstable at times. Then he looks ahead to 2023 to note a broad range of intensifying risk factors, specifically as it applies to ever-more-acute...

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**Please excuse the sound quality, our new audio set up will be in place for Episode 3, thanks for your patience**

In Episode 2, Greg discusses this week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee amid the expectation that the US Central Bank will raise their official policy rate, again.  Greg talks about inflation rates receding and what happens as the US Dollar begins to retreat, and Gold begins to rally.  Moreover, Greg gets more in-depth with the actual execution of a specific trading recommendation and how to approach the all-important risk mana...

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You see it in the weather, extremes at both ends of the spectrum, record heat, record cold, record floods, record drought and for sure you see it in politics, the far right and far left are both increasingly loud and militant, there is little middle ground anymore.  I am talking about polarization...you see it in human behavior all over the place, on the road, in the stores, in your neighborhoods, and it is acutely and significantly impacting the economy and markets.  It is a NEW AGE and never before has it been mo...

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Your introduction to the new podcast, launching this month...Money, Markets & New Age Investing with your host Greg Weldon.  We are excited to have you on this journey with us!

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