The Macro Trading Floor
The Macro Trading Floor is a fun and actionable macro and markets podcast hosted by Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly. If you are looking for banter, financial education, and actionable trade ideas this is the podcast for you!
Recession Risks & Reflexivity
Alf and Brent discuss the reflexivity bias: now that the S&P500 is rallying again, investors are keen to talk about AI Capex driving indexes higher - where were they when we hit 4,800? Always be aware of your negative and positive biases. The duo also discusses recession odds and a gameplan to approach rates, FX and equity markets.
To contact Alf: ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg
To contact Brent: ping Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg
Podcast transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-01may25/
Trillions of US Dollars To Sell?!
This week, Alf and Brent focus on an obscure yet crucial component of FX flows: the hedging needs from large institutional investors. These whales own $33+ trillion of USD-denominated assets, and over the last 15 years they have systematically under-hedged their USD exposure - were they to change their mind forecasting a weaker USD, there could be trillions of US Dollars to sell.
Want to chat with Alf? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg
Want to chat with Brent? Ping him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg
The Bond Vigilantes Are Here
Alf and Brent discuss the incredible price action we are witnessing: USD down, equities down, and now bond yields up too. This is what Bond Vigilantes price action looks like, and while it's typical in emerging markets it's almost unprecedented in the US.
Want to reach out to Alf? Ping him on BBG: Alfonso Peccatiello
Want to reach out to Brent? Ping him on BBG: Brent Donnelly
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-10apr25/
You Ready For Liberation Day?
Alf and Brent discuss the ''Liberation Day'' deadline for tariffs - and come up with some interesting conclusions. Also, the duo assesses what the Trump administration's long-term plan might be. Finally, Alf and Brent discuss the concept and risk management behind carry trades.
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-27mar25/
Wake Up: The German Fiscal Stimulus Is Huge
Alf and Brent discuss the German fiscal stimulus announcement: with its gigantic magnitude and fast-track process, this marks a historical turnaround for Germany and Europe. The implications for markets are big in stocks, bonds, and FX.
If you want to chat with Alf, ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg or send an email to alf@palinurocapital.com
If you want to chat with Brent, ping him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg.
Growth Scare: Yes or No?
Alf and Brent unpack the last big market moves which investors are broadly interpreting as a growth scare. Is that the correct interpretation? And in general: are we going to have a US growth scare or not?
Interested in Alf's institutional macro research?
Contact him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg or via alf@themacrocompass.com
Interested in Brent's daily FX research reports?
Contact him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg or check out Spectra AM/FX
The Next Big Macro Trade
Markets are caught between cross currents, and the thesis for a stronger USD / sticky inflation seems as valid as the thesis for gentle disinflation / slower growth. Brent and Alf discuss what the next big macro trade could be.
Want access to Alf's institutional macro research? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg or send an email at alf@themacrocompass.com
Want access to Brent's research notes? Ping him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg or visit https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20fe...
How To Trade Tariff Day
In this episode, Alf and Brent reflect on the upcoming ''Tariff Day'' and how to trade it. The duo shares their scenario-based approach covering multiple asset classes including bonds, FX and equities.
Alf can be reached via X (@MacroAlf) and on Bloomberg (Alfonso Peccatiello)
Brent can be reached via X (@@donnelly_brent) and on Bloomberg (Brent Donnelly)
Show notes: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-6-options-or-cash
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-17jan25/
The UK Bond Market Is Imploding
Alf and Brent discuss the big moves in UK bond markets and the drop in the UK Sterling: bond vigilantes are in action, but what next? They also focus on the upcoming tariff announcement and the impact on US bond markets, the US Dollar and equity markets.
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-10jan25/
The Most Hawkish Fed In Years - What Now?
Powell delivered a super hawkish message: inflation remains sticky, and the Fed won’t cut rates as much as the market expected in 2025. The “Fed Put” is not there anymore - should investors go and buy their own puts?
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20dec24/
The US Dilemma in 2025
Alf and Brent discuss the US dilemma in 2025: should Trump be aggressive out of the gate with tariffs sacrificing growth for foreign policy victories, or should he focus on other priorities allowing Powell to cut rates and facilitate the refinancing of $7 trillion of maturing Treasuries? The duo also discussed the perils and benefits of leverage in trading and investing.
Do you want to ask questions to Brent and Alf?
Reach out to Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg.
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com...
Trading Trump 2.0
Alf and Brent resume the show by assessing how to approach Trump 2.0 from a macro trading perspective in 2025. They also discuss the ''Death of Europe'': is it happening, or is it an overcrowded narrative?
Trial for Alf's Institutional Research: https://forms.gle/25heFudTB4ouuJ1H6
Brent's Daily Newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-06dec24/
Trump's Secret Agenda
In this week's episode, Brent and Alf discuss the implications of a Republican sweep. Markets reacted in a textbook way, but today they are busy unwinding most ''Trump trades''. Should we take Trump's agenda at face value and assume it's negative for bonds and positive for the USD? Or should we instead dig deeper and figure out what Trump really wants?
FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86
Check out Brent's research: https://www.spectramarkets.com/
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.co...
The Bond Market Is On Fire
Heading into US elections, US bond markets are on fire: yields are selling off, the term premium is back in positive territory, and investors are worried the sell-off can extend further.
Alf and Brent discuss a framework to assess bond yields, the role of tariffs, how to look at the US Dollar and they also zoom in on Canada where the Central Bank has been forced to aggressively cut interest rates.
FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86
Check out Brent's research: https://ww...
Financial Repression Is Here To Stay
Alf and Brent discuss the recent sharp moves in US election polls and betting markets: Trump's odds are moving up, and so are the odds of a Red Sweep. Is the market fully incorporating these odds? Also, the duo discusses the possibility of persistent financial repression regardless of who prevails in US elections. Finally, they engage in a discussion about the importance of correlations for macro portfolios.
Want to be in touch with Alf? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg or enroll in the two-weeks free trial of his institutional research: https://forms.gle/5GfSwfzovsFpCA5q...
What If The Fed Made a Mistake?
Alf and Brent discuss the most recent US macro data releases: the hurricane impacted jobless claims, and core inflation has surprised to the upside. Trump now seems to decidedly lead the polls, and his policies could be inflationary. Did the Fed make a mistake by cutting 50 bps? The duo also discusses the Saturday Chinese fiscal press conference, and how to handle seasonality in your trading framework.
Alf's Macro Research Trial (Free): https://forms.gle/6azecq2XhMW2ZFXa8
Brent's Newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/
Transcript: htt...
Macro Risks On The Horizon
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https://www.spectramarkets.com/macro-roadmap-2025/
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Alf and Brent discuss the many risks on the horizon: the Middle-East escalation, China following up (or not) with real economic stimulus, elections and more.
Today’s episode: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-04oct24/
Unpacking The Chinese Stimulus Bazooka
The Chinese stimulus bazooka has been fired.
Chinese authorities have announced aggressive interest rate cuts, a 1 trillion yuan capital injection for Chinese banks, and they
are also mentioning the magic words: fiscal stimulus.
As a result, stocks are soaring and commodities are rallying.
But - is it really going to work? And can China really afford such a stimulus?
Alf and Brent unpack this in today's show.
Elm's ''Crystal Ball'' Trading Game: https://elmwealth.com/crystal-ball-challenge/
Tr...
How To Trade The Fed Cutting Cycle
Alf and Brent discuss the jumbo 50 bps Fed cut and the nuances Powell shared during the press conference. They look at historical parallels to derive how to best approach different asset classes with a specific focus on the USD. They also cover the Chinese economy which seems to be slowly imploding from within.
We are now also on Youtube, where you can see supporting charts and our bald heads.
https://youtu.be/o1iDoADS0c4
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20sep2024/
The World is Different Now
Alf and Brent discuss similarities and differences between the world and the macro cycle today versus the pre-pandemic period. While the cycle might look similar, should we not pay attention to the structural differences too? The duo moves on to discuss the aggressive bond market pricing and how to trade around that. Finally, they focus on the US Dollar: will it perform nicely or poorly if we get a recession?
Free trial to Alf's institutional macro research: https://forms.gle/yNU1vBqCqRXSvEHA7
Sign up to Brent's newsletter: https://www.sp...
Will The Fed Cut by 25 or 50 bps?
Alf and Brent discuss recent developments in macro and labor market data, and debate whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 bps in September. Is the bond market overestimating the amount of upcoming cuts, or economic weakness will require the Fed to cut rates even more aggressively? They then move to investigate how long-term investing bias can negatively affect short-term oriented trading decisions, and how to measure consensus.
Free trial to Alf's Institutional Research: https://forms.gle/6bXTD5ApyrdvSv798
Subscribe to Brent's newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/
<...
How & When The Best Macro Investors Use Options
In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how cross-asset pricing in bonds, FX and equity markets has rapidly changed in August and compare it with the hard economic reality: are there opportunities to be exploited? They then make a deep dive on the US Dollar, and finally cover a crucial trading framework topic: when and how to use options instead of linear structures to put up macro trades?
FREE TRIAL to Alf's Institutional Macro Research: https://www.tinyurl.com/FreeTrialResearch
Sign up to Brent's newsletter: www.spectramarkets.com/subscribe
...A Tale of Crowded Macro Trades
Alf and Brent reflect on the immense volatility hitting markets recently, and specifically on the unwind of carry trades: are we done here or is there more to come? Most importantly, they describe how to design and apply a risk management and position sizing framework so that when everybody panics you don't need to.
Want to reach out to Alf? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg
Brent Donnelly can also be reached on Bloomberg, or via spectramarkets.com
Transcript link here: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-12-august-2024/
Macro Mayhem!
Alf and Brent reflect on the massive bond market rally and the explosive move in the Japanese Yen - what’s next for macro?
To contact Alf: send him an email at info@palinurocapital.com or contact him on Bloomberg (Alfonso Peccatiello)
To contact Brent: ping him on Bloomberg (Brent Donnelly) or go on http://www.spectramarkets.com/
Brent’s piece on positioning: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-11-sentiment-and-positioning
Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-02-august-2024/
Explaining This Brutal Stocks Sell-Off
This week, Alf and Brent discuss the brutal equity market sell-off: is it due to macro tectonic shifts, a reassessment of political risks or an unwind of crowded trades?
The duo digs deep trying to connect the dots, and they also discuss a trading framework around this large volatility events.
Where To Find Cheap Macro Optionality
Alf and Brent look into various ''Trump trades'' now that the odds of a Trump election and Republican sweep have increased: is there still juice left? And where? Specifically, they also reflect on the use of options as macro traders.
Want to see Alf's Cheap Optionality Monitor?
Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg
And take advantage of Brent's course offer!
Think Like a Market Professional:
www.spectramarkets.com/school - use code JULY24 for $500 off
St...
It's Macro ShowTime!
Alf and Brent discuss the interesting market reaction to the weak US CPI report, and they dig deep into the '''Trump trade'': how would you trade a Trump victory and why? They also talk about the US Dollar and bond markets.
Want to chat with Alf on Bloomberg? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello)
You can find Brent's work on Spectra Markets or ping him on BBG (Brent Donnelly)
Transcript of the episode: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-12-july-2024/
Elm Toin Coss experiment: https://el...
Option Markets Are Eating The World
In this episode, Alf invites Cem Karsan to discuss what's going on in option markets. Cem does a great job at explaining what's the dispersion trade, how big it has become, and how it might unwind wreaking havoc across asset classes. Alf and Cem also discuss macro and how to use options to structure good risk/reward trade ideas.
Visit Cem's website: https://www.kaivolatility.com/
What Powell Really Meant
A big macro week is behind us: the combination of CPI and PPI releases provide us with solid information on where the disinflation trend stands. Alf and Brent also discuss Powell’s press conference + change in dots and the European political risks.
Want to get in touch with Alf or Brent?
Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg
Ping Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg
Risk Management Principles
Alf and Brent discuss the ECB and Bank of Canada cuts, and reflect on the big bond market moves seen recently coupled with carry trade implosions. The discussion focuses around risk management principles to prevent bad left tail outcomes when running carry trades, and how to identify positive expected value trades in macro.
Alf is offering a 2-weeks free trial to his institutional research: ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg to get in.
Brent just launched Spectra School: www.spectramarkets.com/school
Transcript of this ep...
Don't Make This Mistake
Free Trial to Alf's Institutional Research?
Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg for more info!
In this podcast, Alf invites Peter Farac (aka @countdraghula on Twitter) to the show.
Peter brings a wealth of experience running money and has specific skills in rates and vol markets.
Alf and Peter discuss where the US business cycle actually is, how markets are positioned, and talk shop: how do we actually trade these markets?
Follow Peter @countdraghula on X, Free Newsletter: www.macroisdead.com
How Macro Traders Navigate Uncertainties
Want to meet Alf and Brent in person?! Fill in this 30-second survey so we can make this happen:
https://www.eSurveysPro.com/Survey.aspx?id=ad4fe049-95b7-40ef-a46b-f1bdc509b256
In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how markets are becoming quickly complacent with realized and implied volatility collapsing across asset classes.
The only surprises are still coming from bond markets, while something interesting is brewing in China which could have a meaningful impact for macro going forward.
Plus, they...
How To Trade Macro Now?
(Links mentioned in the podcast are in the show notes below: check them out!)
Alf and Brent discuss the soft patch the US seems to be going through and the CPI number released this week. If markets are going to continue with this low-vol grind higher, how do you trade macro now? Also, China seems to be cooking something big this time.
- Contact me (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg to check out the Crowded Trades Indicator
- Link to Bill Bishop piece on China:
Early Signs of Weakness
The Bank of England pre-announced a rate cut in June, the Swedish Riksbank cut interest rates, and there are a few early signs of weakness emerging in the US as well.
Is the market ready for a regime switch?
Alf and Brent also discuss how they approach trading into volatile events, breaking long-term correlation, and the structural USD strength.
Links mentioned in the show:
https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/cad-v-wti-divortium/
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#Tab3
A New Fed Put?
Descrizione: Nominal growth is showing some early signs of fatigue, while economists' expectations remain elevated and market pricing still quite hawkish. Alf and Brent discuss potential opportunities arising from this setup, and spend time arguing whether Powell just announced a new Fed Put this week.
Link to Brent's favorite podcast this week: https://pod.link/1594407589/episode/48072fb61a2a4cd1bf4fbbf9dff7e555
A Contrarian Macro Thesis
US Q1 Real GDP printed below expectations but still at a respectable 1.6%, and core inflation was hotter than analysts forecast: more fuel on the fire of the reflation theme? Alf and Brent present a contrarian macro thesis instead, and also discuss the odds of a Chinese devaluation and more. Finally, they talk about the pros/cons of using stop losses in tactical macro trading. Enjoy the show!
What if Hikes are Stimulative?!
The Fed is all of a sudden opening up to the possibility of hikes: what now? But most importantly: have you ever thought about the possibility of Fed hikes being stimulative? And finally: do you have any idea why every Central Bank in the world is targeting exactly 2% for inflation?
Alf and Brent discuss this and much more in today's episode - have fun!
And also take a look at Brent's piece on safe havens through different macroeconomic environments: https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/acute-shortage-of-safe-assets/
Yes, But What Will Break Markets?
This week Alf and Brent discuss how markets seem to be on the lookout for a release valve for the combination of a Fed talking about cuts while nominal growth doesn't call for them: commodiites, bond markets, and the US Dollar seem to be all brewing under the surface. But what will actually break markets?
The Next Big Trade?
Markets are in reflation mode with commodities getting bid all over the place: not only gold and crude oil, but also silver, copper, zinc, you name it. Also, the US Dollar is showing signs of topping and it all starts to closely remind one of the most volatile macro periods ever. So: what's the next big trade? Find out in the show!
Macro Traders Reflections
Alf welcomes back Brent to the show, and the co-host duo discusses macro data, Fed's Waller speech, Japan and China. But most importantly they share thoughts and observations about the current low volatility market regime, how to approach it trying to avoid the most common macro traders' mistakes, and how to think of risk/reward when looking at insurance trades.
Here are some non-trading and investing reads that are useful for traders and investors.
https://www.philgalfond.com/articles/variance-beyond-the-surface
The Inner Game of Tennis by Timothy Gallwey
