Daybreak with Anton

Institutional investors have once again become headline driven.  Institutional traders seem to base their daily trading strategy on Trump tweets panicking on this announcement or another.  Most interesting is their little regard to actual economic data.  They obviously haven’t learned much from President Trump’s first term and his modus operandi.  Listen in this UPdate on assessment of the economy and our suggestions on navigating through this market volatility.  

The stock market is currently selling off over concerns of pending tariffs, similar to the investor fears that led to the 2022 selloff. In 2022, investors sold stocks in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike campaign to combat soaring inflation. Despite corporate profits continuing to rise throughout 2022, stock prices declined until the market began a strong rally in early 2023. The current market correction in 2025 mirrors 2022, but key differences remain—mainly the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s tariff policies. History shows markets typically rally once uncertainty clears. Listen in this UPdate as we compare today’s market selloff to 2022 and the...

George Foreman affectionately known as “Big George” died this week on March 21 at the young age of 76.  He has many accolades to be remembered by that include his boxing career, business successes, father, minister, and philanthropic causes.  After winning Gold at the 1968 Summer Olympics, he entered professional boxing and over the next 20 years he fought 76 professional fights that he ended 68 with a KO.  The US is another rising star in its early years compared to countries around the world that are 1,000’s of years old.  During this country’s short tenure it has endured wars, bad government policies, civil unrest, and...

For the past week, major media outlets have opined on the stock market volatility speculating whether this is the beginning of a significant stock market selloff and if the US economy is entering a deep recession cycle like 2008 or 1929.  However, the media is overstating the damage to investor accounts.  Year to date, the S&P 500 is down -5.26% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the darling of the media because of the point fluctuation, is down YTD -2.61%.  Listen in this UPdate our view of recent stock market volatility and strategies to navigate through this year.

Since December 6, 2024, the US stock market has been trading in a flat range up to February 19.   However, the flat trading range weakened on January 27 when DeepSeek announced it had developed AI learning database using outdated Nvidia GPU for less than $6M.  Investors panicked selling top AI company stocks with some share prices plummeting 15% - 20% that day.  Even though the selloff was short lived, and nearly all the losses of that day were recovered within three weeks, investor confidence in the rally was shaken.  Read in this UPdate, the events that followed DeepSeek’s announcement that has accelerated the selloff along w...

The University of Michigan released on Friday their Surveys of Consumers reports. The February report indicated that consumers’ concerns are building after January’s index decline that has continued into February.  From the February surveys, consumers cited mounting worry about rising inflation due to tariffs.  The Consumer Confidence Index dropped 13.5% to 64.7 in February from December’s 74.0 index level.  Listen in this UPdate our analysis of these reports and our stock market projections for 2025.

Investors entered 2025 with cautious optimism as stocks continued their strong rally, led by tech and AI. Despite a brief selloff in January, momentum remains positive, and new buying opportunities are emerging. Market corrections may be more volatile, but economic growth is broadening beyond tech. Stay informed on trends and opportunities in this week’s update.

The US economy continues to improve in many areas that would indicate continued positive momentum and continued growth.  In this UPdate we will focus on the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Turnover (JOLTS) report and Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing ISM Report on Business (ISM).  Both reports provide insight on how employers are doing that will ultimately result in how the stock market performs in 2025.  Listen in this UPdate our analysis and projections for 2025.

After two consecutive years of robust US stock market gains, investors are nervous about stock values and meeting high growth expectations, especially in the tech sector.  For reference, the major indices’ two-year run has been tremendous with the S&P 500 gaining 53.19% and NASDAQ gaining a whopping 84.50%.  Listen in this UPdate our view of yesterday's wild market swing and today’s rebound along with our forecast for 2025.

We have mentioned in past UPdates the importance of monitoring the financial and sentiment of US consumers.  The primary reason is American spending represents a whopping 67.9% of America’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) otherwise known as gross revenue from all transactions (illustrated below by JP Morgan).  Imbedded in the matrix of consumer spending is the freedoms Americans have that has always been the foundation of the world dominate US economy.   Read in this UPdate our analysis of core of the US economy, consumers’ impact, and our projections for 2025.