Coffee House Shots

This week Keir Starmer hosted the French President and the German Chancellor in Downing Street as the E3 moved closer to a landmark agreement: seizing around €100 billion in frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s war effort. It’s a dramatic shift that has soothed some fears in Kyiv – but it has also reopened long-running arguments in Europe about property rights, sanctions and how far the West is willing to go. What does this bold move mean for the conflict, for Ukraine’s future and for Europe’s relationship with Washington?

Meanwhile, as US–Russia shuttle diplomacy intensifies, D...

This morning Kemi Badenoch has staged a presser setting out the terms for a new (alternative) national grooming gangs inquiry – a move that has reopened wounds for many survivors and intensified criticism of Labour’s handling of the existing process. What will this mean for the government, for survivors, and for the political fight ahead?

Meanwhile in Scotland, the defection of former Scotland Office minister Lord Offord to Reform UK has sent shockwaves through the Scottish Conservatives – and raised fresh questions about the balance of power ahead of the Holyrood elections. Could Reform genuinely challenge Labour for second...

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning's political shows.

Youth unemployment is rising quickly. What is the government's plan?

And, Zarah Sultana speaks on behalf of the now officially named 'Your Party'.

Produced by Joe Bedell-Brill.

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This weekend’s Coffee House Shots digs into the growing debate over whether Keir Starmer should tack left on the economy as voters peel away to the Greens and Lib Dems – and why some in Labour think its migration stance is now more popular with their own voters than ever. Are Labour tacking left?

But beyond policy, a deeper question looms: is Westminster’s obsession with ‘super-advisers’ drowning out the government’s message? Tom Baldwin argues that leaks, briefing wars and the hunt for the next ‘power-behind-the-throne’ are undermining Labour’s ability to tell a coherent story, while Tim Shipman...

There has been a flurry of UK-European activity across Britain this week, with the German state visit in London, the Norwegian Prime Minister signing a defence agreement in Scotland and the British-Irish council meeting in Wales today. Perhaps then it's inevitable that speculation over closer ties between the UK and the EU has re-emerged. Could Labour seek to rejoin the Customs Union? Would this help or hinder Reform? And would the EU even stomach it? Plus – Liz Truss launches a new show today. Will she say anything new?

James Heale and Charles Grant from the Centre fo...

Reform are in the money. This morning the Electoral Commission has dropped the latest figures on political donations, and Reform are streets ahead. Former Tory donor Christopher Harborne has handed Nigel Farage £9 million, what we believe to be a record amount from a single donor. How much impact will this have on Reform’s chances of electoral success? How much influence do political donors have over how their money is spent?

Elsewhere, Reform are conducting a press conference later this afternoon where they will be sticking it to Labour over its decision to postpone more local elections. Wit...

It was PMQs today and it is clear to see that Kemi Badenoch is starting to enjoy herself. She opened with the departure of the head of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), as it allowed her to suggest that Starmer was dodging taking responsibility himself. She asked: ‘Does the Prime Minister believe that when an organisation descends into total shambles, the person at the top should resign?’ To be fair, she has lots of ammunition between the leaks, botched Budgets and Cabinet discontent – however, the leader of the opposition does seem to be hitting her stride just at the mo...

Today we’re going to be talking about David Lammy, and his brand new plans to drastically reduce the number of jury trials in the UK in an attempt to address the backlog. With the backlog of cases due to be heard in courts already at 78,000, and heading for 100,000, the Justice Secretary believes that only radical solutions can tackle the ‘courts emergency’. But is he being too radical? This comes on the same day that Lammy announced that 12 prisoners have been accidentally released in the last three weeks.

But first, the Budget fallout continues and there has been a...

Lots has happened over the weekend – Your Party (as they are now actually called) have proven to be the gift that keeps on giving, there been another defection to Reform and Rachel Reeves stands accused of lying about the extent of the fiscal blackhole in her pre-Budget briefings.

Some within Labour see it as a victory of sorts for Rachel Reeves that, so far, the post-Budget debate has focused mostly on the run-up to her statement rather than the measures it contained. However Keir Starmer has been mobilised this morning to give an 'everything is fine' speech in...

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning's political shows.

Rachel Reeves says she can be trusted. But did she lie in the run-up to the budget?

Produced by Joe Bedell-Brill.

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Throughout the years, the only person permitted to drink inside the House of Commons is the Chancellor, so what has been the tipple of choice for each resident of Number 11 dating back to Benjamin Disraeli? Following Rachel Reeves Budget this week, Michael Simmons and James Heale drink their way through the ages, discuss the historical context of each Budget, and question whether Rachel Reeves has the toughest job of them all.

This episode was originally recorded for Michael Simmons's new podcast Reality Check. Search Reality Check wherever you subscribe to your podcasts.

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With Budget week finally at an end, certain mysteries remain. Chief among them is why the Chancellor decided to give an emergency speech preparing the public for a rise in income tax.

On 4 November, Rachel Reeves summoned journalists to Downing Street early in the morning to warn that ‘the productivity performance we inherited is weaker than previously thought’. She then refused to rule out hiking income tax rates – sending a clear signal to markets that rises were coming. Nine days later, however, the Treasury let it be known via the FT that income tax increases would not be...

Tim Shipman sits down with Professor David Miles of the Office for Budget Responsibility the day after a Budget overshadowed by an extraordinary leak. David sets out what the OBR now believes about growth, headroom and productivity — and why the UK’s long-term prospects look weaker than hoped. He discusses the political choices behind back-loaded tax rises, the decision not to score the workers’ rights reforms, and why Britain is so slow to adopt its own inventions. Plus: what the OBR’s new leak investigation will look like, and how confident we should really be in those fiscal forecasts.

Pro...

As Budget days go, today was unprecedented. The complete list of measures announced by Rachel Reeves – along with their costings and economic impacts – was leaked by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) an hour before the Chancellor took to her feet. The OBR apologised and called it a ‘technical error’.

The headline is tax hikes to the tune of £26 billion, income tax thresholds will be frozen again and the tax burden will hit a record high at 38 per cent of GDP. Was this the most farcical Budget in history?

Michael Simmons speaks to James Heale and Tim S...

James Nation, managing director at Forefront Advisers, and Michael Simmons join James Heale to analyse what we know, one day ahead of the Budget. James – a former Treasury official and adviser to Rishi Sunak – takes us inside Number 11, explains the importance of every sentence and defends the Budget as a fiscal event. Plus, Michael takes us through the measures we know so far – but is the chaotic process we've seen so far just symptomatic of 'broken Britain'?

Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

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Britain has an energy problem – while we produce some of the cleanest in the world, it's also the most expensive, and that's the case for almost every avenue of energy. On the day the Spectator hosts its Energy Summit in Westminster, a report commissioned by the Prime Minister has found that the UK is the most expensive place to produce nuclear energy. This is important for so many avenues of government – from future proofing for climate change, to reducing the burden households are facing through the cost-of-living crisis.

Claire Coutinho, shadow secretary of state for energy, and...

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning's political shows.

This week, Labour’s crucial budget is almost here, and Trump’s peace plan causes alarm in Ukraine.

Produced by Joe Bedell-Brill.

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Contact us: podcast@spectator.co.uk

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Chris Curtis and Maxwell Marlow may have different political ideologies, but they agree on one key diagnosis: Britain is broken. Their solution can be found on baseball caps and bucket hats across social media and SW1: ‘Build Baby Build’. Less than a week before the Budget, Chris – MP for Milton Keynes and chair of the Labour Growth Group – and Maxwell – policy fellow of the Yimby Initiative, alongside his day job at the Adam Smith Institute – join our economics editor Michael Simmons to talk about the pro-growth measures they champion to radically change Britain.

Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

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Yesterday we had the publication of the second module of the Covid Inquiry on the decision-making at the heart of government. It confirmed a toxic and disorganised culture at the heart of No. 10 and the headline is that the government acted ‘too little, too late’, costing as many as 23,000 lives in England.

That figure is already disputed, not least by our economics editor Michael Simmons who argues on the podcast that the inquiry is a ‘disgrace’ and demonstrates a lack of domain knowledge about the limitations of modelling. Where else does the inquiry fall short? What will be the p...

While we wait for the findings of the Covid Inquiry into the decision-making during the pandemic, Shabana Mahmood has given a statement in the Commons outlining further details of Labour’s migration crackdown. The headline is that those who arrived during the so-called ‘Boriswave’ will have to wait up to 20 years before achieving settled status.

Figures within Reform are having fun with the suggestion that the Home Secretary is more aligned with them on migration, but it is perhaps fairer to say that Shabana is taking her cues from the Blue Labour movement. What is Blue Labour? And is...

Neither Kemi Badenoch nor Keir Starmer performed very well at Prime Minister’s Questions: both fluffed their lines early on. Badenoch managed to suggest the Budget had already happened, while Starmer got lost during an attack on Tory economic policy. But while Badenoch was back to the kind of poor delivery that had previously upset so many of her Conservative colleagues, Starmer still came off worse.

The most interesting exchange was with Reform Chief Whip Lee Anderson, who goaded Starmer to ‘be a man’ and ensure that all the cancelled local elections go ahead next year. This facili...

Economics editor Michael Simmons and Yvette Cooper's former adviser Danny Shaw join Patrick Gibbons to react to the Home Secretary's plans for asylum reform. Shabana Mahmood's direct communication style in the Commons yesterday has been praised by government loyalists and right-wingers alike, but her plans have been criticised by figures on the left as apeing Reform. Will her calculated risk pay off and how will success be judged?

Plus, as ONS migration figures are revised – again – Michael restates his appeal for more reliable data. And how could migration data affect the budget next week?

Pr...

This afternoon, the Home Secretary will set out in the House of Commons her proposed reforms to the asylum system. The headline changes proposed by Shabana Mahmood have been well briefed in the weekend press: refugees will have temporary status and be required to reapply to remain in Britain every two-and-a-half years; those arriving would have to wait 20 years before they can apply for permanent settlement; and countries that refuse to take back migrants will be threatened with visa bans – Angola, Namibia and the Democratic Republic of Congo are among those likely to be initially punished. Is she the on...

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning's political shows.

Labour are set to announce a raft of new measures to fix an asylum system the home secretary says is 'broken'. But do they go far enough?

Produced by Joe Bedell-Brill.

Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.

For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.

Contact us: podcast@spectator.co.uk

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Britain’s prisons are a legislative problem that has beset successive governments. New revelations show 91 accidental early releases in just six months, the latest in a growing pattern of administrative chaos across the criminal justice system. Between drones delivering drugs, crumbling Victorian buildings, exhausted staff and an ever more convoluted sentencing regime, what is the cause of so many blunders? And what will Labour’s promised reforms actually fix – and are more crises inevitable?

James Heale speaks to Charlie Taylor, H.M. Chief Inspector of Prisons.

Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Megan McElroy.

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With less than a fortnight to go until the Budget, it seems Rachel Reeves has performed an almighty U-turn. At the beginning of the week, the established consensus in Westminster was that the base rate of income tax would rise, breaking Labour’s flagship manifesto pledge. The Chancellor had already rolled the pitch, holding a press conference at which she warned ‘each of us must do our bit’. But the Financial Times – Reeves’ newspaper of choice – reports today that she has ‘ripped up’ her plans. Why the sudden change of heart?

Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Tim Shipman. <...

It’s been another bruising week for the British economy. New GDP figures reveal that growth has almost flatlined, inching up by just 0.1 per cent between July and August – a sign, many fear, that the UK is drifting into deeper malaise. With the budget less than a fortnight away, can the Chancellor square the circle of sluggish growth, tax pressures and a restless Labour party?

James Heale speaks to Tim Shipman and Paul Johnson about the mounting economic uncertainties, the Treasury’s lack of a clear tax strategy, and the political doom loop the government now finds itself...

Conspiracy or cock-up? Westminster is abuzz after what appears to be a plan to decapitate Wes Streeting has spectacularly backfired. A flurry of late-night briefings designed to shore up Keir Starmer’s position turned personal against the Health Secretary, suggesting he was plotting a coup in advance of the Budget and in anticipation of – what many expect will be – a poor showing at the local elections.

Streeting was left to defend himself on the media round, confidently declaring he was a ‘faithful’ and he also joked that he doesn't know the whereabouts of Shergar and believes the moon landi...

With two weeks until her Budget, Rachel Reeves has received more bad news: unemployment is now at its highest level since the pandemic. With the Chancellor hinting at income tax rises, could this be dangerous for Labour as it increasingly becomes the party of higher earners? Polling suggests the public would lay the blame for tax hikes with Reeves, despite her speech last week.

With threats from a resurgent Green party to the left and Reform to the right, is there an obvious path forward for Labour to win back voters?

James Heale speaks to...

It seems that the BBC is once again setting the news agenda – via tales of its own incompetence. The Corporation has spent days battling accusations that it aired a doctored clip of a speech by President Trump in a Panorama documentary back in January 2021. The White House Press Secretary has called the Beeb ‘100 per cent fake news’ while Kemi Badenoch has demanded that ‘heads must roll’ ... and now they have. For Tim Davie, the Director-General of the BBC, announced his resignation, alongside Deborah Turness, his senior colleague and CEO of News. But will two scalps be enough?

James Heale...

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning's political shows.

On Remembrance Sunday, Chief of the Defence Staff Sir Richard Knighton says the UK must be prepared against ‘hybrid warfare’, and Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy contends with allegations of BBC bias, Labour cronyism, and mistakenly released prisoners.

Produced by Joe Bedell-Brill.

Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.

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Contact us: podcast@spectator.co.uk...

What lessons does America have for our politics? While progressives look to Zohran Mamdani for inspiration on how to get elected successfully, the really important question is how to govern effectively. And here it is the Trump administration which is setting the standard, writes Tim Shipman in this week’s cover story. On day one, Donald Trump stepped into the Oval Office ready to ‘move fast and break things’, signing a flurry of executive orders with the backing of unflinching loyalists. Brits who may have been appalled by Trump in his first term are now envious of his administration’s lack of i...

A year ago, the Chancellor called her £38 billion tax rise a ‘one-and-done’ move. Now she looks set to rinse and repeat, with reports that a 2p increase in income tax is on the table. According to The Times, she has informed the Office for Budget Responsibility that a rise in personal taxation is one of the ‘major measures’ she will announce. This is the strongest signal yet that she will break Labour's manifesto pledge not to increase income tax rates. What does this mean for the Chancellor, and taxpayers?

Elsewhere, David Lammy suffered a disastrous Deputy Prime Min...

With three weeks until the Budget, the main political parties have been setting out their economic thinking. Each faces the same bind: anaemic growth, fiscal constraints and uncomfortable exposure to the bond markets. The upshot is that there is less ‘clear blue water’ on the economy between Labour, the Conservatives and Reform.

This has left a space for energy to emerge as the policy area in which to differentiate the parties in this new era of five-party politics. The Westminster energy consensus is over – Net Zero is not as popular as it once was – and the parties are sett...

In a crowded field, today’s could have been the most bizarre PMQs ever.

From David Lammy pronouncing ‘I am the Justice Secretary’ as if it were an affirmation to be chanted in the bathroom mirror, to the wild hair on display on both benches, it surely takes the mantle of parliament at its most ridiculous – and that’s not to mention the story that another convict has escaped from prison. Has David Lammy got a grip on mistaken prison release? And – more importantly – does he have the support of his colleagues?

James Heale speaks to Tim Shipman...

It is three weeks until the Budget – and Rachel Reeves wants to get her narrative out there. The Chancellor held an early morning press conference today to, in her words, ‘set out the circumstances and the principles’ guiding her thinking on 26 November.

Her speech followed a familiar pattern. First, there was the evisceration of the ‘austerity’, ‘reckless borrowing’ and ‘stop go of public investment’ which characterised the last 14 years. In her 25-minute speech in Downing Street, one line in particular stood out: ‘If we are to build the future of Britain together’, Reeves said, ‘we will all have to contribute t...

With Reform leading in the polls, Nigel Farage is determined to ensure that nothing can impede its growth. This morning he sought to bolster his credibility on an area that the Tories think could be his Achilles heel: the economy.

Reform’s £90 billion programme of tax cuts promised at the last election has been constantly used as a stick with which to beat its leader. So today, Farage took to the stage in the City, to – once again – formally bury ‘Our Contract with You’ – the platform on which he was elected in July last year. This morning’s speech was al...

Introducing The Spectator's newest podcast, Reality Check with economics editor Michael Simmons. Like what you hear? Search 'Reality Check' wherever you are listening to this podcast and be sure to hit 'follow' to never miss an episode.

Are the rich fleeing Britain? That's what the numbers suggest, but some activist groups have hit back that the data is dodgy. For the second episode of Reality Check The Spectator's economics editor Michael Simmons explains why the data shows that the wealthy are leaving Britain, and why this matters for everyone else.

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‘On the day of the local elections, when the Tories suffered a historic setback, Kemi Badenoch went to the gym and got her hair done,’ Tim Shipman reveals in the magazine this week. Aides insist that Badenoch has since ‘upped her game’. Her PMQs performances are improving and the CCHQ machine seems to have whirred into gear, making sure that Labour’s embarrassments – from Angela Rayner’s flat to the collapsed China scandal – don’t go unpunished. Is she finally turning the ship around after a year in the job? Michael Gove and Tim Shipman discuss.

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Happy All Hallows’ Eve, everyone – and there is something spooky going on with Rachel Reeves and a property in Dulwich. Yesterday she was leading the news after admitting to renting out her family home following the move into No. 11 without getting the required licence from Southwark Council. There are a number of mitigating circumstances – not least the fact that the lettings agent said they would obtain the licence – but the Prime Minister has been forced to put out a statement. He backs her, for now, but will he come to regret that? Listen for a rare defence of Rachel Reeves o...