Coffee House Shots

James Nation, managing director at Forefront Advisers, and Michael Simmons join James Heale to analyse what we know, one day ahead of the Budget. James – a former Treasury official and adviser to Rishi Sunak – takes us inside Number 11, explains the importance of every sentence and defends the Budget as a fiscal event. Plus, Michael takes us through the measures we know so far – but is the chaotic process we've seen so far just symptomatic of 'broken Britain'?

Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

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Britain has an energy problem – while we produce some of the cleanest in the world, it's also the most expensive, and that's the case for almost every avenue of energy. On the day the Spectator hosts its Energy Summit in Westminster, a report commissioned by the Prime Minister has found that the UK is the most expensive place to produce nuclear energy. This is important for so many avenues of government – from future proofing for climate change, to reducing the burden households are facing through the cost-of-living crisis.

Claire Coutinho, shadow secretary of state for energy, and...

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning's political shows.

This week, Labour’s crucial budget is almost here, and Trump’s peace plan causes alarm in Ukraine.

Produced by Joe Bedell-Brill.

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Chris Curtis and Maxwell Marlow may have different political ideologies, but they agree on one key diagnosis: Britain is broken. Their solution can be found on baseball caps and bucket hats across social media and SW1: ‘Build Baby Build’. Less than a week before the Budget, Chris – MP for Milton Keynes and chair of the Labour Growth Group – and Maxwell – policy fellow of the Yimby Initiative, alongside his day job at the Adam Smith Institute – join our economics editor Michael Simmons to talk about the pro-growth measures they champion to radically change Britain.

Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

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Yesterday we had the publication of the second module of the Covid Inquiry on the decision-making at the heart of government. It confirmed a toxic and disorganised culture at the heart of No. 10 and the headline is that the government acted ‘too little, too late’, costing as many as 23,000 lives in England.

That figure is already disputed, not least by our economics editor Michael Simmons who argues on the podcast that the inquiry is a ‘disgrace’ and demonstrates a lack of domain knowledge about the limitations of modelling. Where else does the inquiry fall short? What will be the p...

While we wait for the findings of the Covid Inquiry into the decision-making during the pandemic, Shabana Mahmood has given a statement in the Commons outlining further details of Labour’s migration crackdown. The headline is that those who arrived during the so-called ‘Boriswave’ will have to wait up to 20 years before achieving settled status.

Figures within Reform are having fun with the suggestion that the Home Secretary is more aligned with them on migration, but it is perhaps fairer to say that Shabana is taking her cues from the Blue Labour movement. What is Blue Labour? And is...

Neither Kemi Badenoch nor Keir Starmer performed very well at Prime Minister’s Questions: both fluffed their lines early on. Badenoch managed to suggest the Budget had already happened, while Starmer got lost during an attack on Tory economic policy. But while Badenoch was back to the kind of poor delivery that had previously upset so many of her Conservative colleagues, Starmer still came off worse.

The most interesting exchange was with Reform Chief Whip Lee Anderson, who goaded Starmer to ‘be a man’ and ensure that all the cancelled local elections go ahead next year. This facili...

Economics editor Michael Simmons and Yvette Cooper's former adviser Danny Shaw join Patrick Gibbons to react to the Home Secretary's plans for asylum reform. Shabana Mahmood's direct communication style in the Commons yesterday has been praised by government loyalists and right-wingers alike, but her plans have been criticised by figures on the left as apeing Reform. Will her calculated risk pay off and how will success be judged?

Plus, as ONS migration figures are revised – again – Michael restates his appeal for more reliable data. And how could migration data affect the budget next week?

Pr...

This afternoon, the Home Secretary will set out in the House of Commons her proposed reforms to the asylum system. The headline changes proposed by Shabana Mahmood have been well briefed in the weekend press: refugees will have temporary status and be required to reapply to remain in Britain every two-and-a-half years; those arriving would have to wait 20 years before they can apply for permanent settlement; and countries that refuse to take back migrants will be threatened with visa bans – Angola, Namibia and the Democratic Republic of Congo are among those likely to be initially punished. Is she the on...

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning's political shows.

Labour are set to announce a raft of new measures to fix an asylum system the home secretary says is 'broken'. But do they go far enough?

Produced by Joe Bedell-Brill.

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Britain’s prisons are a legislative problem that has beset successive governments. New revelations show 91 accidental early releases in just six months, the latest in a growing pattern of administrative chaos across the criminal justice system. Between drones delivering drugs, crumbling Victorian buildings, exhausted staff and an ever more convoluted sentencing regime, what is the cause of so many blunders? And what will Labour’s promised reforms actually fix – and are more crises inevitable?

James Heale speaks to Charlie Taylor, H.M. Chief Inspector of Prisons.

Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Megan McElroy.

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With less than a fortnight to go until the Budget, it seems Rachel Reeves has performed an almighty U-turn. At the beginning of the week, the established consensus in Westminster was that the base rate of income tax would rise, breaking Labour’s flagship manifesto pledge. The Chancellor had already rolled the pitch, holding a press conference at which she warned ‘each of us must do our bit’. But the Financial Times – Reeves’ newspaper of choice – reports today that she has ‘ripped up’ her plans. Why the sudden change of heart?

Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Tim Shipman. <...

It’s been another bruising week for the British economy. New GDP figures reveal that growth has almost flatlined, inching up by just 0.1 per cent between July and August – a sign, many fear, that the UK is drifting into deeper malaise. With the budget less than a fortnight away, can the Chancellor square the circle of sluggish growth, tax pressures and a restless Labour party?

James Heale speaks to Tim Shipman and Paul Johnson about the mounting economic uncertainties, the Treasury’s lack of a clear tax strategy, and the political doom loop the government now finds itself...

Conspiracy or cock-up? Westminster is abuzz after what appears to be a plan to decapitate Wes Streeting has spectacularly backfired. A flurry of late-night briefings designed to shore up Keir Starmer’s position turned personal against the Health Secretary, suggesting he was plotting a coup in advance of the Budget and in anticipation of – what many expect will be – a poor showing at the local elections.

Streeting was left to defend himself on the media round, confidently declaring he was a ‘faithful’ and he also joked that he doesn't know the whereabouts of Shergar and believes the moon landi...

With two weeks until her Budget, Rachel Reeves has received more bad news: unemployment is now at its highest level since the pandemic. With the Chancellor hinting at income tax rises, could this be dangerous for Labour as it increasingly becomes the party of higher earners? Polling suggests the public would lay the blame for tax hikes with Reeves, despite her speech last week.

With threats from a resurgent Green party to the left and Reform to the right, is there an obvious path forward for Labour to win back voters?

James Heale speaks to...

It seems that the BBC is once again setting the news agenda – via tales of its own incompetence. The Corporation has spent days battling accusations that it aired a doctored clip of a speech by President Trump in a Panorama documentary back in January 2021. The White House Press Secretary has called the Beeb ‘100 per cent fake news’ while Kemi Badenoch has demanded that ‘heads must roll’ ... and now they have. For Tim Davie, the Director-General of the BBC, announced his resignation, alongside Deborah Turness, his senior colleague and CEO of News. But will two scalps be enough?

James Heale...

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning's political shows.

On Remembrance Sunday, Chief of the Defence Staff Sir Richard Knighton says the UK must be prepared against ‘hybrid warfare’, and Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy contends with allegations of BBC bias, Labour cronyism, and mistakenly released prisoners.

Produced by Joe Bedell-Brill.

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What lessons does America have for our politics? While progressives look to Zohran Mamdani for inspiration on how to get elected successfully, the really important question is how to govern effectively. And here it is the Trump administration which is setting the standard, writes Tim Shipman in this week’s cover story. On day one, Donald Trump stepped into the Oval Office ready to ‘move fast and break things’, signing a flurry of executive orders with the backing of unflinching loyalists. Brits who may have been appalled by Trump in his first term are now envious of his administration’s lack of i...

A year ago, the Chancellor called her £38 billion tax rise a ‘one-and-done’ move. Now she looks set to rinse and repeat, with reports that a 2p increase in income tax is on the table. According to The Times, she has informed the Office for Budget Responsibility that a rise in personal taxation is one of the ‘major measures’ she will announce. This is the strongest signal yet that she will break Labour's manifesto pledge not to increase income tax rates. What does this mean for the Chancellor, and taxpayers?

Elsewhere, David Lammy suffered a disastrous Deputy Prime Min...

With three weeks until the Budget, the main political parties have been setting out their economic thinking. Each faces the same bind: anaemic growth, fiscal constraints and uncomfortable exposure to the bond markets. The upshot is that there is less ‘clear blue water’ on the economy between Labour, the Conservatives and Reform.

This has left a space for energy to emerge as the policy area in which to differentiate the parties in this new era of five-party politics. The Westminster energy consensus is over – Net Zero is not as popular as it once was – and the parties are sett...

In a crowded field, today’s could have been the most bizarre PMQs ever.

From David Lammy pronouncing ‘I am the Justice Secretary’ as if it were an affirmation to be chanted in the bathroom mirror, to the wild hair on display on both benches, it surely takes the mantle of parliament at its most ridiculous – and that’s not to mention the story that another convict has escaped from prison. Has David Lammy got a grip on mistaken prison release? And – more importantly – does he have the support of his colleagues?

James Heale speaks to Tim Shipman...

It is three weeks until the Budget – and Rachel Reeves wants to get her narrative out there. The Chancellor held an early morning press conference today to, in her words, ‘set out the circumstances and the principles’ guiding her thinking on 26 November.

Her speech followed a familiar pattern. First, there was the evisceration of the ‘austerity’, ‘reckless borrowing’ and ‘stop go of public investment’ which characterised the last 14 years. In her 25-minute speech in Downing Street, one line in particular stood out: ‘If we are to build the future of Britain together’, Reeves said, ‘we will all have to contribute t...

With Reform leading in the polls, Nigel Farage is determined to ensure that nothing can impede its growth. This morning he sought to bolster his credibility on an area that the Tories think could be his Achilles heel: the economy.

Reform’s £90 billion programme of tax cuts promised at the last election has been constantly used as a stick with which to beat its leader. So today, Farage took to the stage in the City, to – once again – formally bury ‘Our Contract with You’ – the platform on which he was elected in July last year. This morning’s speech was al...

Introducing The Spectator's newest podcast, Reality Check with economics editor Michael Simmons. Like what you hear? Search 'Reality Check' wherever you are listening to this podcast and be sure to hit 'follow' to never miss an episode.

Are the rich fleeing Britain? That's what the numbers suggest, but some activist groups have hit back that the data is dodgy. For the second episode of Reality Check The Spectator's economics editor Michael Simmons explains why the data shows that the wealthy are leaving Britain, and why this matters for everyone else.

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‘On the day of the local elections, when the Tories suffered a historic setback, Kemi Badenoch went to the gym and got her hair done,’ Tim Shipman reveals in the magazine this week. Aides insist that Badenoch has since ‘upped her game’. Her PMQs performances are improving and the CCHQ machine seems to have whirred into gear, making sure that Labour’s embarrassments – from Angela Rayner’s flat to the collapsed China scandal – don’t go unpunished. Is she finally turning the ship around after a year in the job? Michael Gove and Tim Shipman discuss.

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Happy All Hallows’ Eve, everyone – and there is something spooky going on with Rachel Reeves and a property in Dulwich. Yesterday she was leading the news after admitting to renting out her family home following the move into No. 11 without getting the required licence from Southwark Council. There are a number of mitigating circumstances – not least the fact that the lettings agent said they would obtain the licence – but the Prime Minister has been forced to put out a statement. He backs her, for now, but will he come to regret that? Listen for a rare defence of Rachel Reeves o...

There are a few sore heads at 22 Old Queen Street this morning because it was The Spectator’s Parliamentarian of the Year Awards last night.

From Lucy Powell’s jibe at Morgan McSweeney (and Tim Shipman, for that matter) to Robert Jenrick’s jokes falling flat, it was an eventful evening of good-natured hazing, naval-gazing and – of course – recognising the best and worst of Westminster. Who came out on top?

Oscar Edmondson debriefs with Tim Shipman, Michael Simmons and Natasha Feroze.

Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Megan McElroy.

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Kemi Badenoch continues to look more confident at PMQs – although there are always going to be some easy goals when you lead on the economy. Today she pressed the Prime Minister on Labour’s manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, VAT or national insurance – which he dodged – as well as repeating her offer to work with Labour towards a cross-party solution to the welfare problem. What do we know about the Budget at the end of next month? And are we any closer to understanding what a ‘working person’ actually is? 

Lucy Dunn speaks to Tim Shipman and M...

There are reports that the OBR will downgrade Britain’s productivity growth forecasts, increasing the size of the black hole facing the Chancellor at the end of the month. This continues the spate of bad news for the Chancellor on the economy – but can we trust the figures? James Heale and Michael Simmons join Patrick Gibbons to talk about what this means ahead of the budget, whether anger over the money wasted on asylum hotels can be linked to the cost-of-living crisis and what Rachel Reeves is doing in Saudi Arabia this week.

Plus: is a deba...

With the news that the Home Office has spent billions of taxpayers' money on asylum hotels – and following the accidental release of the Epping sex offender – Tim Shipman and James Heale discuss this most shambolic of government departments. Is it fit for purpose? Can Shabana Mahmood fix the cursed department? And, if not, who will voters turn to instead?

Produced by Megan McElroy and Patrick Gibbons.

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We thought when we organised this podcast that there would just be the newly announced deputy Labour leader to discuss – Lucy Powell beat Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson by 87,407 votes to 73,536. But instead we also have evidence the Prime Minister may have lied to Parliament over the collapse of the China spy case, and there is a manhunt under way to recapture a dangerous criminal released by mistake.

Bad news clearly comes in threes for No. 10: Lucy Powell was not their pick for the job; lying to Parliament is the kind of thing that the ministerial code is qu...

On the face of it, the Caerphilly by-election result is a disaster, a drubbing and a humiliation for Keir Starmer’s Labour party. A once secure bastion of the Welsh Labour heartlands fell without a squeak from the governing party. Their vote collapsed to a miserable 11 per cent, while Plaid Cymru won with 47 per cent and Reform surged to second place with 36 per cent. The result suggests Labour is on course to surrender a boatload of seats at the 2029 general election, both to Reform and to whatever protest party is best suited to beat the government around the head – be i...

With every new poll predicting a Reform win at the next general election, the party continues its preparation for government. James Heale joins Oscar Edmondson and Tim Shipman to talk about his article in the magazine looking at what – or who – is shaping Reform’s intellectual revolution. Cambridge intellectual James Orr, close friend to J.D. Vance, has recently joined as an adviser, following in the footsteps of recent defector Danny Kruger, who was widely seen as an intellectual heavyweight on Conservative benches. 

Tim also discusses his piece looking at the narrative Rachel Reeves is trying to set ahe...

We’ve just had PMQs, which have become much more interesting now that Kemi Badenoch has got her act together. She led on the Grooming Gangs Inquiry after a fourth survivor quit the inquiry over fears that it’s being watered down. She went as far as to say that the government is in a ‘briefing war against survivors’, and accused Labour of a ‘cover-up’. Nigel Farage attempted to upstage proceedings with his own stunt – he watched from the public gallery to make the point that he isn’t given the chance to defend himself or his party. However, Badenoch’s displ...

Rachel Reeves is hosting an investment summit in Birmingham, trying to turn the narrative away from Britain's economic 'doom loop' ahead of next month's budget. But the harbinger of bad economic news Michael Simmons – who joins James Heale and Patrick Gibbons on the podcast – points to the news today of soaring government borrowing costs, and expected higher inflation figures tomorrow. Plus, what have some politicians made of further developments in the Prince Andrew scandal?

Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

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There have been lots of movements in foreign affairs over the weekend, including a potential collapse of the Gaza peace deal, a Trump–Putin bilateral and new revelations about the China spy case. But closer to home, all eyes are on Kent Council, Reform’s flagship administrative project run by Linden Kemkaran (formerly of this parish).

Over the weekend, a Zoom call was leaked to the Guardian, in which council leader Kemkaran used some choice language – many are calling it a Jackie Weaver moment, if you can cast your mind back to 2021. Labour have put out a press...

To mark the centenary of Thatcher’s birth, Michael Gove is joined by Charles Moore, her biographer, and Peggy Noonan, speechwriter to Ronald Reagan, to reflect on the chemistry that bound the two conservative leaders. Both outsiders turned reformers, they shared not only ideology but temperament – ‘They were partners in crime,’ says Peggy.

Yet it wasn’t all harmony. As Charles notes, the pair weathered serious rifts – over nuclear weapons, Grenada and the Falklands. Even in disagreement, they ‘wanted the same thing … to defeat the Soviet Union without fighting’. How did they navigate their differences? And what lessons can w...

It's been a rough week for the government: the row over the collapsed Chinese spy trial has rolled on, all while the Chancellor has been trying to lay the groundwork ahead of next month's budget. Then, overnight, another issue has emerged as fans of the Maccabi Tel Aviv football team have been banned from attending a football game against Aston Villa next month, leading to accusations of antisemitism.

Tim Shipman and Michael Simmons join James Heale to discuss the day's developments. Tim reveals how the Chinese spy row has been picked up by American legislators, threatening...

Tim Shipman's bombshell cover piece for the magazine this week explains how the collapsed spy trial blew up in the government’s face. As well as raising ‘serious questions’ about Keir Starmer’s judgment and Jonathan Powell’s role, ‘the affair reveals a Whitehall tendency to cover up the gory details of foreign spying in the UK’. According to Tim, four ‘highly credible sources in the upper echelons of the last government… have revealed that far worse scandals have been hushed up’. One, involving Russia, was suppressed ‘to avoid embarrassing a former prime minister’. The ‘most catastrophic breach’ saw China purchase a company that...

Keir Starmer did not go into Prime Minister’s Questions with the intention of resolving the row over the collapse of the Chinese spying case: he merely wanted to avoid the pressure building too much. He announced in a long statement at the start of the session that the government would be publishing its three witness statements, and then spent the rest of his sparring with Kemi Badenoch arguing that this was all the fault of the previous government anyway. So who is to blame, the Tories or Labour? What does the inability to deal with this scandal say ab...