Manifold

Dan Collins is Founder of Tyrell Chemical. He studied at Tsinghua University and spent 20 years working for companies like General Motors in China, helping to localize automotive manufacturing. Dan and Steve discuss tariffs, deindustrialization in America, the Go-Go days of rapid economic growth in PRC, and the future of the US-China relationship.

Follow Dan on X: https://x.com/DanCollins2011

This episode is a co-release with the podcast Seeking Truth From Facts: https://seekingtruthfromfacts.substack.com/

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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MS...

Steve speaks with ARX-Han, an anonymous writer, about his book "Incel."

Callum Williams is a senior economics writer for The Economist. He was educated at Oxford, Harvard, and Cambridge, and is the author of The Classical School: The Birth of Economics in 20 Enlightened Lives.

Misha Laskin is CEO of Reflection.ai. He was trained in theoretical physics at Yale and Chicago before becoming an AI scientist. He made important contributions in Reinforcement Learning as a researcher at Berkeley, Google DeepMind, and on the Google Gemini project.

https://x.com/MishaLaskin

Steve and Misha discuss:

Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China. His firm invests in Chinese technology companies, with a focus on areas such as clean energy, AI, and automation.

Part 1 of this discussion, from November 2023: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47

Steve and Taylor discuss: 

Ken Liu (born 1976) is an American author of science fiction and fantasy. Liu has won multiple Hugo and Nebula Awards for his novel translations and original short fiction. Liu's short story "The Paper Menagerie" is the first work of fiction, of any length, to win all of the Nebula, Hugo, and World Fantasy Awards. Besides his original work, Liu's translation of Liu Cixin's Chinese language novel The Three-Body Problem (the first in the Remembrance of Earth's Past trilogy) won the 2015 Hugo Award for Best Novel, making it the first translated novel to have won the award.

Relevant links:

Chapters:

Joscha Bach is a German cognitive scientist, AI researcher, and philosopher known for his work on cognitive architectures, artificial intelligence, mental representation, emotion, social modeling, multi-agent systems, and the philosophy of mind.

Links of interest:

Steve and Joscha discuss:

This episode is an interview I did with the new podcast Information Theory. The host of Information Theory is an anonymous technologist trained in physics and machine learning.

Pascal Lottaz is Associate Professor at Kyoto University’s Faculty of Law & Hakubi

Center. His research area is Neutrality Studies - the study of neutrality as a concept in international relations, sociology, international law, diplomacy, political science, security, and history.

Han Feizi is the pseudonym of a columnist for Asia Times, who covers the Chinese economy, technology, and US-China competition. The author lives in Beijing, and has an extensive background in finance and investment banking.

Han Feizi's articles for Asia Times: https://asiatimes.com/author/han-feizi/

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction to the guest: Han Feizi
01:39 What it's like in Beijing right now

06:38 Modern Conveniences in Beijing

12:11 What the economy feels like for ordinary people

19:09 China's economic structure: consumption, infrastructure investment, Michael Pettis

30:32 Currency Valuation a...

This is a crossover episode with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast.

Samo Burja founded Bismarck Analysis, a consulting firm that investigates the political and institutional landscape of society. He is a Senior Research Fellow in Political Science at the Foresight Institute where he advises on how institutions can shape the future of technology. Since 2024, he has chaired the editorial board of Palladium Magazine, a non-partisan publication that explores the future of governance and society through international journalism, long-form analysis, and social philosophy. From 2020 to 2023, he was a Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation where he studied how institutions can endure for centuries and millennia.

Samo writes and...

This is a crossover episode in which https://x.com/loubohan interviews me for his podcast Deus Ex Machina.

I was obviously in an exuberant mood for this interview - it's one of my favorites!

Deus Ex Machina podcast:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7mXUfNJdNnOjGfu6VGactr?si=Y3j1OZG4QsGdPhXd8dKsrw…

Timestamps:

This is a crossover episode in which Alf of the Seeking Truth from Facts podcast interviews Steve Hsu about the Chinese economy and political system, and US-China competition.

Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfacts/p-148705853

Steve and Alf discuss:

This is a short episode recorded at the end of a trip to Caltech (LA), Frankfurt, and Reykjavik.

Black hole information and replica wormholes at Caltech (talk slides):
https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/black-hole-information-and-replica

00:00 Intro: summer in Iceland

02:04 deCODE genetics 

05:52 Chess: Bobby Fischer in Reykjavik

11:56 Hyperscaling genAI

23:11 Synthetic data and Hyperscaling

24:26 Is the Transformer architecture enough for AGI?

29:45 Quantum black holes

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He has worked in a variety of fields, including Physics, AI, Economics, and Futurism.

Follow him at https://x.com/robinhanson

"When the typical economist tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'Eh, maybe.' Then I forget about it. When Robin Hanson tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'No way! Impossible!' Then I think about it for years." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan, GMU

0:00 Introduction

00:34 Welcome and Manifest conference introduction

03:12...

Steve discusses China myths and realities with Victor, a tech founder who ran a company in Beijing for 7 years. Among the topics covered: economic growth, real estate bubble, technology innovation, human capital, freedom of expression, Confucianism and Culture.

00:00 Introduction

02:02 Post-COVID economy and bursting of the real estate bubble

08:25 Semiconductor Industry and US-China Tech War

16:57 STEM Education and Workforce: China vs US

20:36 Slides on PRC human capital deepening, STEM and total workforce

39:58 Economic indicators and potential war economy

41:03 Singapore as model for PRC development, leadership exchanges<...

Earlier episode, Harvard Veritas:

https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/harvard-veritas-interview-with-a-recent-graduate-anonymous-18

Chapter markers:

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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously...

Steve talks about AI in light of his recent travels to SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley, and Silicon Valley.

Chapters:

Links:

Philippe Lemoine is a PhD candidate at Cornell University in philosophy and a widely-read public intellectual. We discuss philosophy, the scientific research used to justify COVID lockdowns, and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Dr John Seo is co-founder and a managing director at Fermat Capital Management, LLC. He has over 30 years’ experience in fixed income bond and derivatives trading and has been active in the Insurance-Linked Securities (“ILS”) market for over 25 years. Prior to forming Fermat with his brother Nelson in 2001, Dr Seo was senior trader in the Insurance Products Group at Lehman Brothers, an officer of Lehman Re, and a state-appointed advisor to the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund. Dr. Seo’s work in catastrophe funds was featured in a cover article for the New York Times Magazine (‘In Nature’s Casino’ by Michael Lew...

Molson Hart is the CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. He has deep experience selling products manufactured in China, using Amazon and other platforms. He produced a documentary about the challenges Amazon's market dominance creates for sellers and buyers worldwide. His recent video about a recent trip to visit factories in China went viral, generating millions of views on X.

Steve and Molson discuss:

1:22 Molson Hart's background, experience in China

5:26 The...

Jaan Tallinn is a billionaire computer programmer and investor. He was a co-founder of Skype, and has invested in companies like DeepMind and Anthropic.

Tallinn is a leading figure in the field of existential risk, having co-founded both the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge, in the United Kingdom and the Future of Life Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in the United States.

Steve and Jaan discuss:

00:00 Introduction

00:33 Jaan Tallinn: AI Investor

02:03 Acceleration Toward AGI: Excitement and Anxiety

04:29 AI Capabilities and...

Glenn Luk has worked as an investment banker, private equity investor, and startup founder. He has closely analyzed aspects of the Chinese economy, including its GDP and high speed rail system.

Steve and Glenn discuss:

Casey Handmer (PhD, Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth!

Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and air. Using solar energy, they extract carbon from the air and synthesize natural gas, all at the same site.

March 2024: "Terraform completes the end to end demo, successfully producing fossil carbon free pipeline grade natural gas from sunlight and air. We also achieved green hydrogen at

Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: https://www.russell-clark.com/

Steve and Russell discuss:

0:00 Introduction

0:52 Russell's background and experiences in Japan

13:25 Hong Kong and finance

31:53 China property bubble

48:54 Dollar status as global reserve currency

56:09 Japan and China economies from a long run perspective

1:05:07 Inflation, US economy, and macro observations

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream...

Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more. 

Steve and Stephen discuss:

0:00 Introduction

0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background

5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets

11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement

20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calibration

23:35 Simplifying prediction markets for broader engagement

27:31 Revenue streams and future business directions

30:46 Legal challenges in prediction markets

31:47 Dating markets

32:53 The Art of PR...

Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, serving from 1963 to 1990. His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush. McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Richard Nixon administration, and during the Ronald Reagan administration he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and prepared the President's Daily Brief.

He received the Intelligence Commendation Medal at his retirement but returned it in 2006 to protest the CIA's involvement in torture.

Steve and Ray discuss:

0:00 Introduction

01:25 Ray McGovern's assessment of the JFK assassination

Steve discusses DNA and the origin of life on Earth, the Fermi Paradox (is there alien life?), AI and its implications for the Simulation Question: could our universe be a simulation? Are we machines, but don't know it?

Slides: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CrWLiKYhLbDLG8yTOBySrsKrzAUbV-FES1toeJL-UWE/edit?usp=sharing

Further discussion of the Simulation Question in light of AGI, and a refinement from quantum mechanics: The Quantum Simulation Question: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-quantum-simulation-hypothesis-do-we.html

CORRECTION: 31:25 The size of our galaxy is not 100 million light years. I should have said ~100 THOUSAND = 100...

Sean Reyes is Utah’s Attorney General and a producer for the movie “Sound of Freedom.” Steve and Sean discuss his personal story, human trafficking, and the role of technology in law enforcement.

More on Reyes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Reyes

NOTE: Reyes has announced that he will not seek re-election as Utah AG: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEEj4UgjDL4

00:00 Sean Reyes’ early life and family history

14:21 Sean's personal journey and career

21:28 Political journey and decision to run for AG

24:08 The movie Sound of Freed...

TP Huang returns for the third time to discuss the US-China strategic competition in terms of military technology.

Previous episodes with TP include:

Steve and TP discuss: 

Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal discusses China's economic growth, its focus on education, and the global implications of its economic and political policies.

https://research.gavekal.com/

Steve and Louis discuss:

Charles Miller is co-founder and CEO of Lynk. He is a serial space entrepreneur with 30 years of experience in the space industry.

Lynk - https://lynk.world/

Steve and Charles discuss:

0:00 Introduction and guest background

1:27 Miller's early passion for space

3:54 Evolution of commercial space

6:42 Impact of Elon Musk and SpaceX

8:01 The challenges of early stage startups

11:26 The birth of Lynk, its technical challenges, and breakthroughs

33:11 Use cases for satellite connectivity

35:20 The plan for Lynk satellites

36:41 Competition with...

TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang.

0:00 Introduction

2:21 How TP Huang became interested in electric vehicles

6:30 The perception and reality of Chinese products, future of Chinese auto market

9:24 The impact of Tesla on the Chinese electric vehicle market

14:41 Buying a car in China

27:05 China dominates with electric vehicle batteries

30:44 The challenges facing Tesla in China

40:11 The evolution of smart cars, autonomous vehicles, and self driving

50:48 LIDAR technology...

Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China.

Follow him on X @TaylorOgan.

Steve and Taylor discuss: 

0:00 Introduction
1:02 Taylor's background and why he moved his firm to China
20:43 China post-pandemic and economic dynamism
33:43 China dominance in electric vehicles; LIDAR
56:55 Investment research: factory and site visits
1:06:52 US-China competition - the future of innovation is in China

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical P...

Bharat Karnad is an Emeritus Professor in National Security Studies at the Center for Policy Research in Delhi. He was a member of India's first National Security Advisory Board and has authored several books on nuclear weapons and Indian security.

Karnad's blog: https://bharatkarnad.com/

Karnad on the death of Homi Bhabha and of other atomic weapons scientists:
https://bharatkarnad.com/2020/12/06/kill-scientists-disrupt-n-weapons-programmes/

An excellent documentary film on the life of Indian theoretical physicist Homi Bhabha:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6GEGOvXh4g&ab_channel=InternationalCentreforTheoreticalSciences

Steve and...