The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

Today's Frankly is the final installment in a three-part series on the role oil plays in modern civilization, prompted by the recent flow disruptions and geopolitical conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Nate frames the entire arc of this series through the concept of the carbon pulse: a one-time inheritance of ancient stored sunlight that humanity is burning through in a few hundred years. He highlights how modern economies, now roughly a thousand times larger than five centuries ago, are built on the assumption that the energy abundance at the top of this curve is permanent, when in reality...

This week's Frankly is the second in a three-part series on the role oil plays in modern civilization, prompted by the recent flow disruptions and geopolitical conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. This installment explores how modern society has been built on the assumption of cheap and abundant energy, and what happens when that assumption breaks down. Nate describes the ways our built systems, including food production, water treatment, manufacturing, and global trade, are calibrated to cheap energy inputs, and how processes that look economically efficient are often deeply inefficient in physical terms. He walks through the staggering degree...

This week's Frankly is the first in a three-part series on the role oil plays in modern civilization, prompted by the recent flow disruptions and geopolitical conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. This initial installment covers some foundational concepts of The Great Simplification platform, including what oil actually is, what it does for us, and why most of us never see any of it.

Nate begins by describing how oil formed from the compression of ancient marine phytoplankton over millions of years, framing it as a solar battery that took geological time to charge and that humans...

Between global crises and personal problems, modern life is overflowing with things to worry about, including many issues that feel too big to even address. Yet, our ability to influence these problems and how much we worry about them are not equal to each other – and in fact, getting lost in thoughts of anxiety can reduce our ability to act. Given the direct line between individual inner states and civilizational dysfunction, what global change might be possible if we train ourselves to observe thought, rather than be unconsciously consumed and paralyzed by it?

In this episode, Nate is...

This week's Frankly is another in a recurring series, Uncomfortable Questions in Unsettled Times, where Nate poses questions about our shared future. Today he focuses on the unfolding crisis in the Persian Gulf, unpacking hidden implications that aren't covered by the headlines. Nate opens by examining how behind-the-scenes geopolitical decisions at the highest level create a widespread ripple effect – influencing everything from oil production to water desalination to fertilizer and food systems. He considers the risk of continued geopolitical conflict as global alliances shift, as well as the potential impact on the global economic order.

This week's ma...

As the war in Iran creates chaos in every domain of life, the already-fragile energy systems of many countries find themselves on the brink of crisis after spending decades investing in natural gas infrastructure, largely supplied by Middle Eastern countries. With projected natural gas prices now spiking across the world, a growing number of nations are re-prioritizing energy security over energy convenience – calling into question the types of electricity generation needed for their citizens as they look to the coming decades. Could this lead to calls for a nuclear power revival in the West, and if so, would Western co...

In this episode, Nate offers a personal reflection on the unfolding geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, beginning with an examination of how disruptions to fossil fuel flows propagate through the global economy, but with a time lag. He points out how many of the world's countries rely heavily on imported fossil fuels, as well as the potential impact on California's already high gas prices. Nate also contrasts the relative insulation of those in the United States with the far greater exposure of those living in Asia, Europe, and Africa, outlining how second- and third-order effects are already...

The conversation around artificial intelligence has been captured by two competing narratives – techno-abundance or civilizational collapse – both of which sidestep the question of who this technology is actually being built for. But if we consider that we are setting the initial conditions for everything that follows, we might realize that we are in a pivotal moment for AI development which demands a deeper cultural conversation about the type of future we actually want. What would it look like to design AI for the benefit of the 99%, and what are the necessary steps to make that possible?

In this...

This week's Frankly marks a turning point in the work of The Great Simplification. Having spent twenty years articulating the more-than-human predicament, Nate shifts from diagnosis to direction as current events – including conflict in the Strait of Hormuz – accelerate the timeline. Today Nate shares a first-pass framework for action and response that's organized around what to do now, which could be applied to various places and at multiple scales. 

The framework begins with a personal foundation of inner work: stabilizing the nervous system, recapturing a sense of agency, doing grief work, and cultivating inner calmness as a preco...

The number of couples struggling to become pregnant due to unexplained infertility is growing at an alarming rate across the globe. Alongside this concerning rise is the growing awareness of how endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) – particularly those found in plastics and personal care products – are negatively affecting our hormonal health and overall well-being. If we removed or reduced EDCs from the environments of couples struggling to conceive – dramatically reducing their exposure – is it possible their fertility would be improved?

In this episode, Nate is joined by Dr. Shanna Swan, an award-winning scientist, and Sian Sutherland, a plastics expert...

This week's Frankly marks the second installment of Nate's recurring series, Uncomfortable Questions in Unsettled Times, where he poses questions about our shared future. While the first edition posed broad questions about civilizational trajectory, today's episode is prompted by the Iran situation and what happens when geopolitics stops feeling distant and starts arriving as supply chain disruptions, rising prices, fear, and renewed stories about enemies and allies.

Nate walks through five questions that move from the practical to the interior. He begins with the gap between what is essential and what is merely familiar in modern life...

Nearly every mainstream conversation about humanity's future, our current global crises, and our place in the natural world shares one common theme: the quiet, unquestioned assumption that humans are the apex species on Earth. This belief is so woven into our systems and thought patterns that it rarely gets named, let alone challenged. But what if this invisible worldview – more than fossil fuels, overpopulation, or any single policy failure – is at the very root of the ecological crisis?

In this episode, Nate speaks with primatologist and author Dr. Christine Webb about human exceptionalism – the deeply embedded belief that h...

This week's Frankly is another edition of Nate's Wide Boundary News series, where he invites listeners to view the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens. In this installment, Nate addresses the U.S. and Israeli military offensive against Iran and traces the reverberating effects that extend far beyond the conflict itself, starting with what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for a civilization that routes a massive share of its physical economy through a single maritime corridor.

Nate begins with the core misperception that oil registers as roughly 3% of GDP by cost, when...

In this week's Frankly, Nate begins a new series called "Staying Human," which focuses on what he sees as a precondition for everything else: recovering a sense of personal agency. He opens against the backdrop of Operation Epic Fury and the broader turbulence of 2026, but rather than offering geopolitical analysis, he turns inward toward a question that has been reshaping his theory of change: why does growing awareness of the more-than-human predicament so often produce paralysis rather than action?

Nate traces the gap between awareness and agency through several layers. He draws on the science of learned...

As our governments, institutions, and the public become more aware of the increasing pressures on material and energy availability, we've simultaneously seen powerful ripple effects for industrial policy, economic planning, and geopolitical dynamics. Parallel to this story are evolving strategies unique to each nation as new lines of power emerge alongside the trends of artificial intelligence, competing demands for rare earth metals, and an increasingly unstable global power balance that underpins all of it. How have these seemingly disparate factors combined to influence recent international events – and how can understanding them help us forecast the future of global governance an...

In this week's Frankly, Nate explores the growing sense that many people feel disoriented and overwhelmed in a world increasingly saturated with digital content. Constant exposure to headlines, hot takes, summaries, and algorithm-driven feeds can erode our sense of clarity rather than strengthen it. The rapid rise of artificial intelligence has served to dramatically increase the speed of information production while also eroding accuracy, making it difficult to differentiate between content that simply sounds confident and content that's actually grounded in reality.

Nate draws a parallel between today's information ecosystem and the modern industrial food system – just li...

Humans aren't rational. We don't evaluate facts objectively; instead, we interpret them through our biases, experiences, and backgrounds. What's more, we're psychologically motivated to reject or distort information that threatens our identity or worldview – even if it's scientifically valid. Add to that our modern media landscape where everyone has a different source of "truth" for world events, our ability to understand what is actually true is weaker than ever. How, then, can we combat misinformation when simply presenting the facts is no longer enough – and may even backfire?

In this episode, Nate is joined by John Cook, a re...

This week's Frankly is another edition of Nate's Wide Boundary News series, where he invites listeners to view the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens. Today's edition features reflections on renewable energy and CO2 emission trends, updates on species adaptability, and a discussion about nuclear treaties and Iran. Nate ties each topic to the larger story of the Great Simplification, updating listeners on what pathways might be available to pursue the long-term stability of humanity in the biosphere. 

What does ecological simplification teach us about resilience in human systems? When we celebrate "progress" in the f...

In this week's Frankly, Nate looks at how aggregate human behavior changes as groups scale from small tribes to large and complex societies. He uses the framing of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde throughout the episode to illustrate how traits that once helped small groups survive can serve to destabilize complex societies when expanded globally. Rather than a moral failing of the human species, he frames the more-than-human predicament as a predictable outcome that emerges when human instincts operate at large scales.

Nate also walks through the layers that make up the reality we experience. He starts...

With grocery prices skyrocketing and supply chain disruptions becoming more frequent, the average person has more and more incentive to get involved in growing their own food – but how does one even get started? For most people, the time, money, knowledge, and land remain out of reach in order to learn even the basics of agriculture. What kind of options are available for individuals who want to reclaim their food sovereignty – and subsequently become more connected with the Earth and like-minded people? 

In this episode, Nate is joined by biologist and farmer Jason Bradford, to discuss his 'Farm...

This week's Frankly marks a new recurring segment on this platform where Nate poses questions about our shared future: Uncomfortable Questions in Unstable Times. In this edition, he explores what would change if societies shifted their primary goal from growth to stability. Nate also unpacks how a lack of purpose in modern life might shape politics, culture, and personal choices.

He then scales up to look at power and behavior through a wider lens, examining how incentives in systems can shape the behavior of a nation. Nate cites the example of Artificial Intelligence to demonstrate how the...

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is often seen as the problematic byproduct of modern lifestyles that threatens our planet's stability – at least within conversations among environmentalists. But this perspective overlooks the fundamental role of CO2 in everything on Earth, from the food we eat to the houses we live in to our bodies themselves. Despite this reality, the carbon cycle as we know it has been interrupted in ways never before seen in Earth's history. How could understanding the deep history of CO2, as well as humanity's relationship with this controversial and vital molecule, help us prepare for the planetary changes ah...

This week's Frankly is another edition of Nate's Wide Boundary News series, where he invites listeners to view the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens. Today's edition features reflections on a new peak in crude oil production, the growth of non-dispatchable electricity, and a report recently released by the World Economic Forum assessing global risks. Nate ties each topic to the larger story of the Great Simplification, updating listeners on what pathways might be available to pursue the long-term stability of humanity in the biosphere. 

What factors have contributed to the new peak in oil p...

This week's Frankly unpacks humans' current identification with the label "consumer." Consumption is something much deeper and more nuanced than shopping or spending. Nate highlights the ways that it shows up across our whole lives – from basic needs and stability to status and mental escape. He outlines a "consumption pyramid" framework that acts as a map for the different layers of consumption present in daily life, emphasizing that they vary in dependency, reliability, and necessity.

This episode also explores why this understanding is especially relevant in a world that will be increasingly volatile, expensive, and uncertain. In th...

Collapse has long been discussed in the public imagination as something that happens suddenly, immediately turning the world upside down. But history shows that collapse is more often characterized by the slow unraveling of a civilization. Usually, this is due to some combination of resource scarcity, economic stagnation, and compounding disruptions to productive capacity – yet it's barely perceptible in the day-to-day lives of the people within it. What are the signs that we could be living through such a moment right now, and if we are, how does history tell us to prepare for what's to come? 

Tod...

Last week there was so much news Nate recorded two Franklies – this is the second of those, which shares his reflections on a recent seminal essay posted by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, likening Artificial Intelligence as a "rite of passage" for the human species rather than just a narrow technological breakthrough. Amodei posits the possibility that we are now in what Carl Sagan once called a phase of "technological adolescence," wherein humans' technologies and tools become powerful enough to reshape or destabilize civilization faster than our collective wisdom can keep up. As a civilizational force, AI doesn't automatically act as...

This week's Frankly inaugurates a new category for videos on The Great Simplification platform, Wide Boundary News, in which Nate invites listeners to view the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens. As we are increasingly inundated with vast quantities of news (and nervous system dysregulation!), it becomes important to be able to tease out a thread on how they interconnect. The stories we tell ourselves about progress, growth, and stability no longer perfectly line up with the biophysical reality beneath them – in Nate's words, 'A biophysical phase shift cometh.'

This week's edition of Wide Bo...

For many people reading this, the crises we discuss on this podcast – from ecological instability to financial collapse – often feel like a distant problem in the future. But for the youth of today, managing the impact of these situations will define most of their lives, and many have already dedicated their careers to mitigating the worst outcomes. What do the leading young voices envision for the future, and what are they doing today to make that a reality? 

In this episode, Nate is joined by indigenous environmental justice activist and Planetary Guardian, Xiye Bastida, to discuss how her i...

In this week's episode, Nate reflects on his experience with knee surgery and being a "creature in the machine" (the Superorganism). He touches on the often-forgotten nature of our physical existence in a world dominated by cognitive labor and abstractions, exploring the tension between gratitude for the gains of modern medicine and knowledge of the hidden energetic cost of these technologies. 

Alongside these personal reflections, Nate unpacks his thoughts on some current political events and considers timely questions of power, legitimacy, and social fragmentation in a post-peak carbon world. He adds insights from the two books he's r...

Humans have shaped the world more than any other species in existence, largely due to our ability to coordinate and work together as a unit – in other words, to govern ourselves. This means that, while human societies are at the center of the many crises we face today, we are also the key to navigating through them safely. But this is only possible if we're able to hold the foundations of our governance together: communication, agency, and remembering our shared humanity. What is the current state of our ability to do this, and what policy mechanisms and agreements are ne...

In this week's Frankly, Nate explores the relationship between technology and wealth when viewed through a global biophysical lens. He uses the visualization of a straw, siphon, and sieve to describe how technology enables the acceleration of physical resource extraction and the concentration and filtering of resulting 'wealth' towards the human species. Running contrary to the commonly-held idea that technology automatically creates monetary wealth (and therefore prosperity), this episode asks listeners to view real wealth as the underlying stocks and flows that make life on Earth possible – whether in the form of forests, social trust, or entire functioning ecosystems. 

For decades, the West has outsourced its own material production to other countries, in favor of lower costs and short-term returns over more expensive, long-duration investments like mining and manufacturing. But while this has seemed like a success on the surface, it has left us with a society based on consumption, unable to produce what we need on our own. What are the deeper costs of this long-term offshoring – including for our geopolitical, climate, and technological ambitions?

In this conversation, Nate is joined by materials expert and investor Craig Tindale, who explores the profound vulnerabilities facing Western ec...

In this week's Frankly, Nate shares reflections on what we take for granted in life at multiple scales: from personal health to meaningful work to relative ecological stability. The things that keep our everyday lives functioning often go unnoticed until they're needed or suddenly absent, suggesting that real wealth might come in the form of reliability rather than material gain. Nate also considers what has happened to our attention in an age of constantly-available stimulation, reflecting on how moving towards a quieter and slower lifestyle (whether by choice or by external circumstances) might engage us with small joys that...

Dopamine: the most famous neurotransmitter that regulates pleasure, motivation, and (perhaps most importantly) addiction. When examining  why our society is hooked on consuming more and more of everything – food, clothes, videos, news, vacations – it's imperative to look at how our modern environments hijack our brain's dopamine, sending it into overdrive at nearly every turn. Could taking a closer look at how our societal norms make us more vulnerable to addiction help us transition to more balanced and mindful lifestyles?

In this episode, Nate is joined by New York Times bestselling author and professor of psychiatry,  Anna Lembke, to exp...

In this week's Frankly, Nate takes thermodynamics out of the physics classroom, utilizing its principles to explain the invisible forces behind growth, competition, and complexity in our world. Competing life systems build organization out of chaos in order to maximize power usage today, even if it potentially undermines survival tomorrow. Within our energetic reality of finite and destabilizing fossil fuels, this tendency towards instant power accelerates us towards planetary overshoot.

Nate poses a question in response to this tendency: What happens when a species becomes conscious of the self-fulfilling drive to maximize energy flow? He suggests a "...

In this week's episode, Nate reflects on four years(!) of the podcast by answering listener-submitted questions, which cover a broad range of topics related to The Great Simplification. He invites subscribers to investigate how they navigate a complex and ever-changing world, while avoiding overly prescriptive solutions that brush aside personal agency and the inherent uncertainty that exists in our world.

Whether it's outlining his own evolving theory of change or emphasizing the importance of self-care and psychological grounding, Nate speaks to the epistemological resilience that we will increasingly need to cultivate in the face of a changing...

In this week's episode, Nate unpacks the pervasive behavioral pull of sunk cost as a force shaping our material reality, identities, and collective expectations about the future. Past investments – in careers, possessions, and cultural narratives – lock us into patterns of defending what might no longer actually serve us. This tendency becomes more and more relevant as the world shifts in ways that demand adaptability rather than stagnancy. Deep loyalty to former choices, even as we absorb new information about our lived environments, can limit our ability to make wiser, more future-oriented decisions.

By widening the sunk cost lens...

While current conversations about global heating tend to center around a few well-established pieces of science, we don't often hear about the scientists and leaders working at the frontier of what is still unknown about Earth's systems. This includes unpredictable tipping points and cascading effects of our rapidly changing climate, as well as the unconventional adaptation strategies that might help us maintain a stable planet. What is the newest climate science being researched right now, and what areas are we still needing to explore as we fight for a livable future? 

In this episode, Nate is joined b...

In this week's Frankly, Nate explores how the prices we encounter in our daily lives are influenced by not only how much money is in the system, but also by resource depletion, technology, affordability by 'the masses,' and trust within a complex global system.

Prices are deeply intertwined with the biophysical reality that underpins our society, and are affected by major forces that often operate unseen to the average consumer. Other forces – like leverage, complexity, and currency reform – also have longer term repercussions within our monetary system. These have the ability to create both inflationary and defl...

Technological development has always been a double-edged sword for humanity: the printing press increased the spread of misinformation, cars disrupted the fabric of our cities, and social media has made us increasingly polarized and lonely. But it has not been since the invention of the nuclear bomb that technology has presented such a severe existential risk to humanity – until now, with the possibility of Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) on the horizon. Were ASI to come to fruition, it would be so powerful that it would outcompete human beings in everything – from scientific discovery to strategic warfare. What might happen to o...