The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

Mainstream conversations about artificial intelligence tend to center around the technology's economic and large-scale impacts. Yet it's at the individual level where we're seeing AI's most potent effects, and they may not be what you think. Even in the limited time that AI chatbots have been publicly available (like Claude, ChatGPT, Perplexity, etc.), studies show that our increasing reliance on them wears down our ability to think and communicate effectively, and even erodes our capacity to nurture healthy attachments to others. In essence, AI is atrophying the skills that sit at the core of what it means to be...

In this week's Frankly, Nate outlines four bifurcations that are likely to underpin the human experience in the near future. While the broad biophysical realities of energy and ecology underpin our civilization's movement over time, in the moment, people will experience these trends mostly economically and psychologically. Whether related to the widening of an already existing economic gap or the expansion of dependence on cognitive crutches like AI, the demographics that comprise society are starting to splinter – to bifurcate. These divergences, and the ways we cope with them, contribute to increasing incoherence as a species.

What are th...

Many of us wrestle with the unsettling truth that everyone – including ourselves and those we love – will one day die. Though this awareness is uncomfortable, research suggests that the human capacity to contemplate death is a byproduct of consciousness itself. In fact, our efforts to cope with mortality are at the core of culture, religion, the desire for wealth, and even many of today's societal crises. How might a deeper understanding of our implicit reactions to mortality help us turn towards responses that are more supportive of our species and planet? 

In this episode, Nate is joined by Sh...

In this week's Frankly, Nate considers the ways in which our social species overvalues false-confidence rather than the more honest and inquisitive response of "I don't know." He invites us to consider the science behind this cultural bias towards certainty: from our biological response from the stress of "not knowing" to the reinforcing effects of motivated reasoning that ensnares even the smartest among us (especially the smartest among us).

Overconfidence and the desire for quick answers have been the root cause of many of humanity's disasters, from the space shuttle Challenger explosion to the Deep Water Horizon...

Monopolistic business practices have been illegal in the United States for more than a century. Yet, monopoly power continues to accelerate in our modern commercial landscape. Large, powerful corporations edge out smaller businesses, often citing scale, "efficiency", and lower costs as their reasons for success. But looking more closely reveals a reality that is far different. Small businesses are more cost-effective and deliver better results to the people they serve than giant corporations. Furthermore, they form the backbone of engaged and connected communities. So what is actually preventing small businesses (and communities) from flourishing, and what can individuals do...

In this week's Frankly, Nate reflects on the multiple metaphors brought to mind via a single photograph, which depicts a sloth climbing a barbed wire fence in Costa Rica. Beyond evoking compassion for a species that's on the receiving end of human intervention into its ecosystem, the image raises larger ideas about the response of animals, including humans, to artificial cues and novel environments. Just as the sloth mistakes a fence post for the safety of a tree, modern humans mistake consumption, speed, and certainty for meaning.

Moving beyond just the image, Nate unpacks the word "sloth"...

Twenty-five years ago, a landmark paper warned that the world's coral reefs could vanish by 2050. Now, halfway to that projected date (and amid ever more frequent coral bleaching events), that grim prediction feels increasingly close to reality. What is the current state of Earth's coral reefs, and what would happen to our planetary home without them? 

In this episode, Nate is joined by Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, the marine biologist who made this landmark prediction, for an update on the health of coral reefs and the primary ecological stressors driving their decline. Drawing on decades of research, he explains t...

For many people in the modern world, electricity powers everything we do. Yet we take for granted how power flows in the background, seemingly always accessible to us just by flipping a switch. In fact, most of us are completely unaware of what it takes to generate and transmit the power we so deeply rely on, let alone the policy decisions shaping our electrical grids – or how they might affect reliable access to power. How do today's electrical grids actually work, and do they align with our long-term goals for human and planetary well-being?

In this episode, Na...

To view the graphs Nate is referring to in this episode, please click here.

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In this week's Frankly, Nate returns from New York City Climate Week with fresh reflections on the disconnect between our economic narratives and biophysical realities. Using his background in finance, Nate observes that while the prioritization of financial abstractions and claims continue to accelerate, with gold and silver prices reaching record-setting highs, the ledger is being balanced with parallel declines in our planetary health and social resilience. This tradeoff is harder and harder to ignore as newly crossed planetary boundaries...

The overarching definition of success today often looks like the accumulation of stuff – money, cars, property, clothing – anything that signals wealth. This means that success is also synonymous with overshoot, extraction, and consumption – none of which lead to healthy outcomes for the planet or the global good. But what might be possible if we were to redefine success to prioritize collective well-being instead of personal gain?

In today's episode, Nate sits down with Dutch historian and author Rutger Bregman to discuss the concept of moral ambition, which he defines as the desire to be one of the best...

In this week's Frankly, Nate reflects on intraspecies predation (ours) and the impact psychopathic actors have on the mean and median of human behavior – in the past all the way up to our modern society. Human evolution was shaped by both cooperative, pro-social behavior and a competitive, predatory approach for survival – resulting in a balanced distribution for most of humanity's existence.  

But, as agriculture, surplus, and other factors propelled more hierarchical social structure, aggregate human behavior and culture has slowly shifted over time to express more psychopathic traits. This thread of behavior continues to run through our modern...

For many people today, the idea of societal collapse is unimaginable. Yet history shows that well-established civilizations have fallen again and again – often for similar reasons. In fact, the same forces that build empires can also culminate in their downfall. How can understanding these historical patterns help us prepare for similar existential risks we may already be facing today? 

In this episode, Nate is joined by existential risk researcher Luke Kemp to explore the intricate history of societal collapse – connecting patterns of dominance hierarchies, resource control, and inequality to create societies which he calls Goliaths. Together, they delve...

Psychopathy is often portrayed as a rare and distant phenomenon – something confined to movie villains or prison cells. Yet when psychopathy is combined with narcissism and Machiavellianism to form what psychologists call the Dark Triad, its impact becomes far more immediate. Individuals with these traits can wield disproportionate influence over our culture, institutions, and daily lives. What goes on inside their minds, and how do they shape the world around us?

In this episode, Nate is joined by Dr. Reid Meloy and Dr. Nancy McWilliams to explore the inner workings of the Dark Triad personality traits and th...

In this week's Frankly, in a continuation of his 'This Week's Learnings' series, Nate  updates viewers on things he learned in the past week, and the implications for our sociocultural trajectory. This edition focuses on recent financial and political headlines – global gold holdings, shifting geopolitical energy deals, and new U.S. Department of Energy reports – and explains their relevance to our biophysical reality and broader geopolitical landscape. Through this exercise, Nate invites podcast viewers to use a systems lens to integrate the wide array of news we are bombarded with into the large evolving story of The Human Predicament.

To best understand this episode, please watch this ~2 minute video on the biotic pump.

It's widely known that Earth's forests provide home to countless numbers of species, act as a vast sink for carbon, and provide much of the food, materials, and clean water on which our societies rely. But emerging science shows us that forests may play another critical role: making rain. This theory, called the biotic pump theory, hypothesizes that instead of being passive recipients of rain, forests may actively create the conditions for precipitation over land – a premise that turns modern meteorology on...

In this week's Frankly, Nate weighs the value of a pound of gold with other things that we derive worth from in our lives – from dollars and bitcoin to...less pecuniary markers. Although gold is simply a metal, it has long been a symbol of wealth in human cultures. Through highlighting other important, sometimes intangible forms of wealth, Nate encourages the viewer to not only examine what they place the most worth on in their own lives, but also to consider why things have worth to us as humans living in a complex, modern system.

What contributes to...

Water has always been a fundamental force shaping our planet – both in sustaining life across ecosystems and in guiding the organization and survival of human societies. Yet, many of us are unaware of how intertwined our lives are with the water cycle, much less of the ways we  deplete and degrade the water resources that we and other living creatures rely upon for our very existence. What might change if we had a deeper understanding of global and regional hydrological cycles?

On this Reality Roundtable, Nate is joined by Heather Cooley, Zach Weiss, and Mike Joy to dis...

In the next 25 years, the International Organization for Migration estimates that one billion people will be displaced from their homes due to climate-related events. From island nations underwater to inland areas too hot and extreme to sustain life, the individuals and communities in these areas will need somewhere new to live. Where will these people go, and how will this mass migration add further pressure to the stability of nations and the world? 

In this episode, Nate is joined by environmental and migration historian, Sunil Amrith, to explore the complex history of human movement – and what it rev...

In this week's Frankly, Nate unpacks some key blindspots of "the walrus movement"—a placeholder label that's a gentle nod to those championing bold social and ecological ideals. While mostly well-intentioned, this "movement" can miss the stark limits of our planet's unfolding biophysical reality.

What happens when lofty goals sidestep ecological and energetic realities? How might we incorporate these oversights to drive clear, purposeful action towards a (more) sustainable future? And how do we ground ourselves in biophysical truths while envisioning a system that better serves the planet and its people?

(Recorded August 11, 2025)

Our personal concept of identity shapes every decision we make – ranging from life-altering choices to our smallest daily preferences. Identity influences our values, the relationships we build, and how we respond to an increasingly unpredictable world, whether in constructive or destructive ways. But how are these identities formed, and how might we take a more deliberate role in cultivating a healthy sense of self – and therefore a healthier way of relating to the world?

In this episode, Nate is joined by social neuroscientist Taylor Guthrie to delve into the neuroscience of identity, exploring how the brain constructs a se...

In this week's Frankly, Nate shares an excerpt from his daily life that mirrors a larger observation on the human predicament. A grocery shopping trip turns into a reflection on value vs cost, and how consumption in our society is driven by the perception of value that's presented to us. 

What is the difference in value that our minds create between a $5 container of blueberries, and a $1 container? What is the difference between price, cost and value? What things in our lives do we treat as disposable when they are cheap, but treat as treasure when they a...

In Western culture, topics surrounding death and dying are often considered taboo and are generally avoided in everyday conversations. But this reluctance to fully acknowledge and integrate death as a natural part of the human experience has rendered us less able to cope with the end of life and less prepared to show up for ourselves and the people around us as we inevitably navigate loss. But what if a more skillful engagement with death and grief could actually offer us a more mindful approach to living?

In this conversation, Nate is joined by Stephen Jenkinson, a...

Insects, bugs, creepy-crawlies – these small animals are often considered a nuisance (or worse) by humanity, bringing up an ongoing desire to kill or mitigate these "pests" that plague our backyards, homes, and gardens. But we're beginning to see that, despite our cultural misconceptions, insects are actually at the foundation of our biosphere, food supply, and nearly every life process on Earth. This makes recent reports of rapidly declining insect populations all the more troubling – but can we recognize the vital importance of insects and reverse the harm we've done before it's too late?

On this episode, Nate is j...

In this week's Frankly, Nate reflects on a moment of unexpected insight during a morning bike ride, which catalyzed a larger meditation on the modern human predicament. This episode explores the neuroscience of dopamine, and offers a reflection on the ways it plays into distraction, technology, and how we interact with the hyperstimulating world around us. 

What is the "ghost of dopamine past," and how does it shape not only our individual lives, but our collective economic and ecological behavior? Why does the urge to scroll on our phones override the deep calm of watching wildlife? And h...

Money, debt, and finance shape the lives of everyone globally, including through the policies and actions of national central banks – yet even those who are well-versed in these subjects often miss the full scope of these intricate relationships. For the average person, headlines about mounting government debt and surging interest rates often feel like a confusing and concerning trend. What can we learn from historical cycles, global energy dynamics, and the differing fiscal strategies of nations about the trajectory of the world economy?

In today's episode, Nate is joined once more by Lyn Alden for a deeper ex...

In this Earth Day presentation, recorded earlier this year, Nate offers nine broad paths for individuals to cultivate resilience in an increasingly uncertain and unstable period of human history. From the intellectual & ecological to the spiritual & psychological, these ideas might be considered waypoints for navigating the human predicament, and - in aggregate - help build 'scout teams' of humans working on the upcoming cultural transition away from infinite material expansion.

How do we slow down and reject the "hustle culture" that prioritizes gains in efficiency, wealth and consumption over all else? How do we maximize the positive...

Packaging is an unavoidable feature of modern life. It's so embedded in our products and systems that even the most environmentally-minded consumers struggle to avoid it entirely. Yet packaging accounts for nearly half of all plastic waste, contributing to widespread ecological harm and growing threats to human health – highlighting the urgent need for an overhaul of packaging materials and industry practices. So how are some industry leaders reimagining materials, systems, and supply chains in ways that align with the realities of our finite planet?

In today's episode, Nate is joined by Wes Carter, president of Atlantic Packaging, to...

In this week's Frankly, Nate shares a handful of things he's learned in the past few days that have implications for the Great Simplification. Nate covers a wide range of topics in this edition, from the connections between corn sweat and wet bulb temperatures to a timeline of coral reef bleaching events. 

Our culture is marked by information overload, which has been expanded intensely by technology. This makes it difficult to absorb the data, narratives, and headlines we are presented—let alone sort through them and examine what is relevant for the Great Simplification scenario. This will per...

Economic theory has come to wield outsized influence over our societal goals, decisions, and policies – often relying on models that claim to optimize how human systems function. Yet the outcomes of our modern economic structures tell a different story: accelerating ecological collapse, widening inequality, declining public health, and increasing social disconnection. What if the foundational principles of mainstream economics are actually built on false assumptions that obscure the realities of our world? 

In this conversation, Nate is joined by ecological economist Josh Farley to explore the persistent myths taught in business schools, and the disconnect between economic the...

In today's Frankly, Nate imagines that he's looking back from an unspecified point in the future (even from beyond his lifetime), and ponders the core things he would want during his time on Earth. Breaking from what our culture steers us to seek out, Nate examines what a bedrock of human experiences might include — the things in our lives that keep us grounded and experiencing life to the fullest extent.

While naming some of the things he values in his own life, from experiencing full spectrum love to having a purpose, Nate encourages the viewer to reflect on...

When facing the realities of our world, the urge to drown in grief or shut down into apathy is becoming more and more common. As we are flooded with information and global predicaments outside of our control, overwhelm can set in, affecting our energy, efficacy, and even our ability to care. But what if facing our grief is actually the pathway to increasing our capacity to stay connected to and work on the things that matter most to us? What tools, practices, or rituals could we use to help us begin to metabolize our grief?

In this...

In today's Frankly, Nate reads and responds to questions from viewers of the channel, offering reflections on a wide range of topics from current events, balancing fear and action surrounding often existential topics, green technology, and more. By directly addressing these questions, Nate aims to further unpack some of the nuances in the complex and expansive concept of The Great Simplification.

The goal of TGS is to build out a comprehensive outlook that connects the dots of energy, human-made systems, and Earth's functioning ecosystems. By making clear the biophysical reality of our current predicament, this platform aims...

Recently, the risks about Artificial Intelligence and the need for 'alignment' have been flooding our cultural discourse – with Artificial Super Intelligence acting as both the most promising goal and most pressing threat. But amid the moral debate, there's been surprisingly little attention paid to a basic question: do we even have the technical capability to guide where any of this is headed? And if not, should we slow the pace of innovation until we better understand how these complex systems actually work?

In this episode, Nate is joined by Artificial Intelligence developer and researcher, Connor Leahy, to di...

Economics departments around the world teach a narrow boundary story of the way our world works. A narrative of infinite growth driven by consumption and money, which has dominated our culture and unknowingly shaped the way we live. But does this story really reflect our biophysical reality – or the full scope of humanity's role within it?

In this week's Frankly, Nate identifies 10 myths being taught in business schools today, and the massive implications these misconceptions hold for society. From the way we define value and the boundaries of success to the idolization of self-interest and human ingenuity, th...

National security concerns have been the invisible hand guiding governance throughout recorded history. In the 20th century, it was defined by a country versus country dynamic: whichever nation was the strongest and most strategic was also the safest. But today, our biggest national security threats don't come from opposing nations – they are "actorless threats" that emerge from the breakdown of the complex systems we all depend on – from the stability of our planetary systems to our intricately complex and fragile global supply chains. In this unprecedented landscape, what is required of us in order to keep our citizens safe? 

👉 WATCH THE MOVIE HERE 👈

Three years ago, my team and I created a 30-minute movie that provides a comprehensive systems analysis of the human predicament—spanning energy, economics, ecology, and behavioral psychology. This beautifully animated film aims to help viewers understand the interconnected crises defining our era.

When we first released this film, our podcast was just beginning and our community was much smaller. Today, more than 100,000 people have joined the conversation; and with 300+ hours of content now on our channel, this movie has become an essential orientation tool — a "start here" primer — fo...

Over the last few decades, humanity has globalized everything – from food production and supply chains to communication and information systems – making countries, businesses, and individuals more connected and reliant on each other than ever before. Yet, with this increased interconnectedness comes more complexity and fragility. What have we lost through the globalization process, and how might we fortify our communities by investing in local economies?

In this episode, Nate is joined by Helena Norberg-Hodge – a leading voice in the localization movement – to explore the deep systemic challenges posed by economic globalization. Together, they examine how the global growth m...

Living in a period increasingly fraught by various crises and risks, it is more necessary than ever to be able to metabolize anxiety into something useful. But what about at a cultural level? The behaviors that the current economic superstructure rewards cannot form the basis of what emerges from its ashes…we require new ways of thinking and living that put us in closer relationship to one another and the planet around us. In a system structured to serve as a dissipative structure, how do we plant the seeds of something that is more resilient and cooperative?

In...

While most industries are embracing artificial intelligence, citing profit and efficiency, the tech industry is pushing AI into education under the guise of 'inevitability'. But the focus on its potential benefits for academia eclipses the pressing (and often invisible) risks that AI poses to children – including the decline of critical thinking, the inability to connect with other humans, and even addiction. With the use of AI becoming more ubiquitous by the day, we must ask ourselves: can our education systems adequately protect children from the potential harms of AI?

In this episode, Nate is joined once again by...

In a world grappling with converging crises, we often look outward – for new tech, new markets, new distractions. But the deeper issue lies within: our relationship with energy, nature, and each other. What if we step back far enough to see human civilization itself as an organism that is growing without a plan?

In this week's Frankly — adapted from a recent TED talk like presentation (called Ignite) — Nate outlines how humanity is part of a global economic superorganism, driven by abundant energy and the emergent properties of billions of humans working towards the same goal. Rather than focusi...