The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is often seen as the problematic byproduct of modern lifestyles that threatens our planet's stability – at least within conversations among environmentalists. But this perspective overlooks the fundamental role of CO2 in everything on Earth, from the food we eat to the houses we live in to our bodies themselves. Despite this reality, the carbon cycle as we know it has been interrupted in ways never before seen in Earth's history. How could understanding the deep history of CO2, as well as humanity's relationship with this controversial and vital molecule, help us prepare for the planetary changes ah...

This week's Frankly is another edition of Nate's Wide Boundary News series, where he invites listeners to view the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens. Today's edition features reflections on a new peak in crude oil production, the growth of non-dispatchable electricity, and a report recently released by the World Economic Forum assessing global risks. Nate ties each topic to the larger story of the Great Simplification, updating listeners on what pathways might be available to pursue the long-term stability of humanity in the biosphere. 

What factors have contributed to the new peak in oil p...

This week's Frankly unpacks humans' current identification with the label "consumer." Consumption is something much deeper and more nuanced than shopping or spending. Nate highlights the ways that it shows up across our whole lives – from basic needs and stability to status and mental escape. He outlines a "consumption pyramid" framework that acts as a map for the different layers of consumption present in daily life, emphasizing that they vary in dependency, reliability, and necessity.

This episode also explores why this understanding is especially relevant in a world that will be increasingly volatile, expensive, and uncertain. In th...

Collapse has long been discussed in the public imagination as something that happens suddenly, immediately turning the world upside down. But history shows that collapse is more often characterized by the slow unraveling of a civilization. Usually, this is due to some combination of resource scarcity, economic stagnation, and compounding disruptions to productive capacity – yet it's barely perceptible in the day-to-day lives of the people within it. What are the signs that we could be living through such a moment right now, and if we are, how does history tell us to prepare for what's to come? 

Tod...

Last week there was so much news Nate recorded two Franklies – this is the second of those, which shares his reflections on a recent seminal essay posted by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, likening Artificial Intelligence as a "rite of passage" for the human species rather than just a narrow technological breakthrough. Amodei posits the possibility that we are now in what Carl Sagan once called a phase of "technological adolescence," wherein humans' technologies and tools become powerful enough to reshape or destabilize civilization faster than our collective wisdom can keep up. As a civilizational force, AI doesn't automatically act as...

This week's Frankly inaugurates a new category for videos on The Great Simplification platform, Wide Boundary News, in which Nate invites listeners to view the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens. As we are increasingly inundated with vast quantities of news (and nervous system dysregulation!), it becomes important to be able to tease out a thread on how they interconnect. The stories we tell ourselves about progress, growth, and stability no longer perfectly line up with the biophysical reality beneath them – in Nate's words, 'A biophysical phase shift cometh.'

This week's edition of Wide Bo...

For many people reading this, the crises we discuss on this podcast – from ecological instability to financial collapse – often feel like a distant problem in the future. But for the youth of today, managing the impact of these situations will define most of their lives, and many have already dedicated their careers to mitigating the worst outcomes. What do the leading young voices envision for the future, and what are they doing today to make that a reality? 

In this episode, Nate is joined by indigenous environmental justice activist and Planetary Guardian, Xiye Bastida, to discuss how her i...

In this week's episode, Nate reflects on his experience with knee surgery and being a "creature in the machine" (the Superorganism). He touches on the often-forgotten nature of our physical existence in a world dominated by cognitive labor and abstractions, exploring the tension between gratitude for the gains of modern medicine and knowledge of the hidden energetic cost of these technologies. 

Alongside these personal reflections, Nate unpacks his thoughts on some current political events and considers timely questions of power, legitimacy, and social fragmentation in a post-peak carbon world. He adds insights from the two books he's r...

Humans have shaped the world more than any other species in existence, largely due to our ability to coordinate and work together as a unit – in other words, to govern ourselves. This means that, while human societies are at the center of the many crises we face today, we are also the key to navigating through them safely. But this is only possible if we're able to hold the foundations of our governance together: communication, agency, and remembering our shared humanity. What is the current state of our ability to do this, and what policy mechanisms and agreements are ne...

In this week's Frankly, Nate explores the relationship between technology and wealth when viewed through a global biophysical lens. He uses the visualization of a straw, siphon, and sieve to describe how technology enables the acceleration of physical resource extraction and the concentration and filtering of resulting 'wealth' towards the human species. Running contrary to the commonly-held idea that technology automatically creates monetary wealth (and therefore prosperity), this episode asks listeners to view real wealth as the underlying stocks and flows that make life on Earth possible – whether in the form of forests, social trust, or entire functioning ecosystems. 

For decades, the West has outsourced its own material production to other countries, in favor of lower costs and short-term returns over more expensive, long-duration investments like mining and manufacturing. But while this has seemed like a success on the surface, it has left us with a society based on consumption, unable to produce what we need on our own. What are the deeper costs of this long-term offshoring – including for our geopolitical, climate, and technological ambitions?

In this conversation, Nate is joined by materials expert and investor Craig Tindale, who explores the profound vulnerabilities facing Western ec...

In this week's Frankly, Nate shares reflections on what we take for granted in life at multiple scales: from personal health to meaningful work to relative ecological stability. The things that keep our everyday lives functioning often go unnoticed until they're needed or suddenly absent, suggesting that real wealth might come in the form of reliability rather than material gain. Nate also considers what has happened to our attention in an age of constantly-available stimulation, reflecting on how moving towards a quieter and slower lifestyle (whether by choice or by external circumstances) might engage us with small joys that...

Dopamine: the most famous neurotransmitter that regulates pleasure, motivation, and (perhaps most importantly) addiction. When examining  why our society is hooked on consuming more and more of everything – food, clothes, videos, news, vacations – it's imperative to look at how our modern environments hijack our brain's dopamine, sending it into overdrive at nearly every turn. Could taking a closer look at how our societal norms make us more vulnerable to addiction help us transition to more balanced and mindful lifestyles?

In this episode, Nate is joined by New York Times bestselling author and professor of psychiatry,  Anna Lembke, to exp...

In this week's Frankly, Nate takes thermodynamics out of the physics classroom, utilizing its principles to explain the invisible forces behind growth, competition, and complexity in our world. Competing life systems build organization out of chaos in order to maximize power usage today, even if it potentially undermines survival tomorrow. Within our energetic reality of finite and destabilizing fossil fuels, this tendency towards instant power accelerates us towards planetary overshoot.

Nate poses a question in response to this tendency: What happens when a species becomes conscious of the self-fulfilling drive to maximize energy flow? He suggests a "...

In this week's episode, Nate reflects on four years(!) of the podcast by answering listener-submitted questions, which cover a broad range of topics related to The Great Simplification. He invites subscribers to investigate how they navigate a complex and ever-changing world, while avoiding overly prescriptive solutions that brush aside personal agency and the inherent uncertainty that exists in our world.

Whether it's outlining his own evolving theory of change or emphasizing the importance of self-care and psychological grounding, Nate speaks to the epistemological resilience that we will increasingly need to cultivate in the face of a changing...

In this week's episode, Nate unpacks the pervasive behavioral pull of sunk cost as a force shaping our material reality, identities, and collective expectations about the future. Past investments – in careers, possessions, and cultural narratives – lock us into patterns of defending what might no longer actually serve us. This tendency becomes more and more relevant as the world shifts in ways that demand adaptability rather than stagnancy. Deep loyalty to former choices, even as we absorb new information about our lived environments, can limit our ability to make wiser, more future-oriented decisions.

By widening the sunk cost lens...

While current conversations about global heating tend to center around a few well-established pieces of science, we don't often hear about the scientists and leaders working at the frontier of what is still unknown about Earth's systems. This includes unpredictable tipping points and cascading effects of our rapidly changing climate, as well as the unconventional adaptation strategies that might help us maintain a stable planet. What is the newest climate science being researched right now, and what areas are we still needing to explore as we fight for a livable future? 

In this episode, Nate is joined b...

In this week's Frankly, Nate explores how the prices we encounter in our daily lives are influenced by not only how much money is in the system, but also by resource depletion, technology, affordability by 'the masses,' and trust within a complex global system.

Prices are deeply intertwined with the biophysical reality that underpins our society, and are affected by major forces that often operate unseen to the average consumer. Other forces – like leverage, complexity, and currency reform – also have longer term repercussions within our monetary system. These have the ability to create both inflationary and defl...

Technological development has always been a double-edged sword for humanity: the printing press increased the spread of misinformation, cars disrupted the fabric of our cities, and social media has made us increasingly polarized and lonely. But it has not been since the invention of the nuclear bomb that technology has presented such a severe existential risk to humanity – until now, with the possibility of Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) on the horizon. Were ASI to come to fruition, it would be so powerful that it would outcompete human beings in everything – from scientific discovery to strategic warfare. What might happen to o...

Over the past decade, the world has become increasingly chaotic and uncertain – and so, too, has our cultural vision for the future. While the events we face now may feel unprecedented, they are rooted in much deeper patterns, which humanity has been playing out for millennia. If we take the time to understand past trends, we can also employ practices and philosophies that might counteract them –  such as focusing on kinship, intimacy, and resilience – to help pave the way for a better future. How might we nurture the foundations of a different kind of society, even while the end of our...

Over the past decade, the world has become increasingly chaotic and uncertain – and so, too, has our cultural vision for the future. While the events we face now may feel unprecedented, they are rooted in much deeper patterns, which humanity has been playing out for millennia. If we take the time to understand past trends, we can also employ practices and philosophies that might counteract them –  such as focusing on kinship, intimacy, and resilience – to help pave the way for a better future. How might we nurture the foundations of a different kind of society, even while the end of our...

In this week's episode, Nate invites listeners into an exploration of what it means to navigate a growing predicament shaped by ecological limits, rapid technological changes, and shifting expectations of reality. Our complex world hosts an immense diversity of human (and non-human) circumstances, which demand responses that are adaptive, not static. Rather than offer misleadingly prescriptive answers, Nate lays out a set of "compass points" that serve to both challenge our assumptions, and to attune our values in the direction of 'better futures than the default.'

Our responses to the 'more-than-human predicament' as individuals, communities, and...

For centuries, modern science has relied on the scientific method to better understand the world around us. While helpful in many contexts, the scientific method is also objective, controlled, and reductionist – often breaking down complex systems into smaller parts for analysis and isolating subjects to test hypotheses. In contrast, indigenous wisdom is deeply contextual, rooted in lived experience, and emphasizes a reciprocal, integrated relationship with the rest of the natural world, viewing all parts of the system as interconnected. What becomes possible when we combine the strengths of each of these knowledge systems as we navigate humanity's biggest challenges?

In this episode, Nate weaves personal reflections into an exploration of the human predicament, unpacking a series of chronological insights that have reshaped his worldview. What began years ago as an investigation into oil has morphed into a deep lifelong journey into the complex web of energy, psychology, evolution, and systems that drive today's society. By sharing stories and realizations from his own life, whether it's the debunking of Wall Street energy illusions or unpacking how sexual selection is often as important a behavioral driver as natural selection, Nate invites listeners to step back and see the human story...

Global heating continues, despite the increased use of renewable energy sources and international policies attempting otherwise. Even as emissions reduction efforts continue, our world faces more extreme weather, sea level rise, and human health impacts, all of which are projected to accelerate in the coming decades. This raises an important but controversial question: at what point might more drastic interventions, like geoengineering, become necessary in order to cool the planet?

In this episode, Nate interviews Professor Ted Parson about solar geoengineering (specifically stratospheric aerosol injection) as a potential response to severe climate risks. They explore why humanity...

Mainstream conversations about artificial intelligence tend to center around the technology's economic and large-scale impacts. Yet it's at the individual level where we're seeing AI's most potent effects, and they may not be what you think. Even in the limited time that AI chatbots have been publicly available (like Claude, ChatGPT, Perplexity, etc.), studies show that our increasing reliance on them wears down our ability to think and communicate effectively, and even erodes our capacity to nurture healthy attachments to others. In essence, AI is atrophying the skills that sit at the core of what it means to be...

In this week's Frankly, Nate outlines four bifurcations that are likely to underpin the human experience in the near future. While the broad biophysical realities of energy and ecology underpin our civilization's movement over time, in the moment, people will experience these trends mostly economically and psychologically. Whether related to the widening of an already existing economic gap or the expansion of dependence on cognitive crutches like AI, the demographics that comprise society are starting to splinter – to bifurcate. These divergences, and the ways we cope with them, contribute to increasing incoherence as a species.

What are th...

Many of us wrestle with the unsettling truth that everyone – including ourselves and those we love – will one day die. Though this awareness is uncomfortable, research suggests that the human capacity to contemplate death is a byproduct of consciousness itself. In fact, our efforts to cope with mortality are at the core of culture, religion, the desire for wealth, and even many of today's societal crises. How might a deeper understanding of our implicit reactions to mortality help us turn towards responses that are more supportive of our species and planet? 

In this episode, Nate is joined by Sh...

In this week's Frankly, Nate considers the ways in which our social species overvalues false-confidence rather than the more honest and inquisitive response of "I don't know." He invites us to consider the science behind this cultural bias towards certainty: from our biological response from the stress of "not knowing" to the reinforcing effects of motivated reasoning that ensnares even the smartest among us (especially the smartest among us).

Overconfidence and the desire for quick answers have been the root cause of many of humanity's disasters, from the space shuttle Challenger explosion to the Deep Water Horizon...

Monopolistic business practices have been illegal in the United States for more than a century. Yet, monopoly power continues to accelerate in our modern commercial landscape. Large, powerful corporations edge out smaller businesses, often citing scale, "efficiency", and lower costs as their reasons for success. But looking more closely reveals a reality that is far different. Small businesses are more cost-effective and deliver better results to the people they serve than giant corporations. Furthermore, they form the backbone of engaged and connected communities. So what is actually preventing small businesses (and communities) from flourishing, and what can individuals do...

In this week's Frankly, Nate reflects on the multiple metaphors brought to mind via a single photograph, which depicts a sloth climbing a barbed wire fence in Costa Rica. Beyond evoking compassion for a species that's on the receiving end of human intervention into its ecosystem, the image raises larger ideas about the response of animals, including humans, to artificial cues and novel environments. Just as the sloth mistakes a fence post for the safety of a tree, modern humans mistake consumption, speed, and certainty for meaning.

Moving beyond just the image, Nate unpacks the word "sloth"...

Twenty-five years ago, a landmark paper warned that the world's coral reefs could vanish by 2050. Now, halfway to that projected date (and amid ever more frequent coral bleaching events), that grim prediction feels increasingly close to reality. What is the current state of Earth's coral reefs, and what would happen to our planetary home without them? 

In this episode, Nate is joined by Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, the marine biologist who made this landmark prediction, for an update on the health of coral reefs and the primary ecological stressors driving their decline. Drawing on decades of research, he explains t...

For many people in the modern world, electricity powers everything we do. Yet we take for granted how power flows in the background, seemingly always accessible to us just by flipping a switch. In fact, most of us are completely unaware of what it takes to generate and transmit the power we so deeply rely on, let alone the policy decisions shaping our electrical grids – or how they might affect reliable access to power. How do today's electrical grids actually work, and do they align with our long-term goals for human and planetary well-being?

In this episode, Na...

To view the graphs Nate is referring to in this episode, please click here.

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In this week's Frankly, Nate returns from New York City Climate Week with fresh reflections on the disconnect between our economic narratives and biophysical realities. Using his background in finance, Nate observes that while the prioritization of financial abstractions and claims continue to accelerate, with gold and silver prices reaching record-setting highs, the ledger is being balanced with parallel declines in our planetary health and social resilience. This tradeoff is harder and harder to ignore as newly crossed planetary boundaries...

The overarching definition of success today often looks like the accumulation of stuff – money, cars, property, clothing – anything that signals wealth. This means that success is also synonymous with overshoot, extraction, and consumption – none of which lead to healthy outcomes for the planet or the global good. But what might be possible if we were to redefine success to prioritize collective well-being instead of personal gain?

In today's episode, Nate sits down with Dutch historian and author Rutger Bregman to discuss the concept of moral ambition, which he defines as the desire to be one of the best...

In this week's Frankly, Nate reflects on intraspecies predation (ours) and the impact psychopathic actors have on the mean and median of human behavior – in the past all the way up to our modern society. Human evolution was shaped by both cooperative, pro-social behavior and a competitive, predatory approach for survival – resulting in a balanced distribution for most of humanity's existence.  

But, as agriculture, surplus, and other factors propelled more hierarchical social structure, aggregate human behavior and culture has slowly shifted over time to express more psychopathic traits. This thread of behavior continues to run through our modern...

For many people today, the idea of societal collapse is unimaginable. Yet history shows that well-established civilizations have fallen again and again – often for similar reasons. In fact, the same forces that build empires can also culminate in their downfall. How can understanding these historical patterns help us prepare for similar existential risks we may already be facing today? 

In this episode, Nate is joined by existential risk researcher Luke Kemp to explore the intricate history of societal collapse – connecting patterns of dominance hierarchies, resource control, and inequality to create societies which he calls Goliaths. Together, they delve...

Psychopathy is often portrayed as a rare and distant phenomenon – something confined to movie villains or prison cells. Yet when psychopathy is combined with narcissism and Machiavellianism to form what psychologists call the Dark Triad, its impact becomes far more immediate. Individuals with these traits can wield disproportionate influence over our culture, institutions, and daily lives. What goes on inside their minds, and how do they shape the world around us?

In this episode, Nate is joined by Dr. Reid Meloy and Dr. Nancy McWilliams to explore the inner workings of the Dark Triad personality traits and th...

In this week's Frankly, in a continuation of his 'This Week's Learnings' series, Nate  updates viewers on things he learned in the past week, and the implications for our sociocultural trajectory. This edition focuses on recent financial and political headlines – global gold holdings, shifting geopolitical energy deals, and new U.S. Department of Energy reports – and explains their relevance to our biophysical reality and broader geopolitical landscape. Through this exercise, Nate invites podcast viewers to use a systems lens to integrate the wide array of news we are bombarded with into the large evolving story of The Human Predicament.

To best understand this episode, please watch this ~2 minute video on the biotic pump.

It's widely known that Earth's forests provide home to countless numbers of species, act as a vast sink for carbon, and provide much of the food, materials, and clean water on which our societies rely. But emerging science shows us that forests may play another critical role: making rain. This theory, called the biotic pump theory, hypothesizes that instead of being passive recipients of rain, forests may actively create the conditions for precipitation over land – a premise that turns modern meteorology on...