Market Trends with Tracy
In foodservice, making smart menu decisions can be the difference between open, and closed. Follow along each week as we try to make sense of the many links in our food service supply chain, and how that affects the food you serve. Saval Foodservice's own veteran purchaser, Tracy Anderson, takes you through the major market updates. Saval Foodservice is a broadline foodservice distributor located in Elkridge, Maryland, and has been a family-owned & operated business since 1932. We serve the area's independent restaurants, caterers, delis, hotels, and other eateries. Our products range from fresh produce, seafood, custom-cut meat, groceries, beverages, our own l...
We Can't Believe It's Pandemic Butter Pricing
Still no government reports on markets, but we're piecing a few things together to get a good feel of what's happening. Butter is now trading at levels we’ve not seen since the pandemic five years ago. I don’t think there is much more downside to this butter market, but lets see where it goes. I do think cheese has better potential for a minor rally for the next few weeks.
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Chicken Hits Two Year Low 📉
Chicken prices have hit their lowest level in two years, making it the week’s biggest story. Beef’s slowdown continues, pork holds steady, and dairy drifts lower — but poultry steals the spotlight as the market’s best deal.
BEEF: Prices are still drifting lower, though the declines are slowing. Middle meats are already ticking back up, hinting that the bottom may be near — but just how long before demand heats things up again?
POULTRY: Chicken prices keep sliding, with boneless skinless breasts hitting their lowest point in two years. As demand coo...
The Waiting Game
Markets have slowed to a crawl, with beef, chicken, and pork all easing while buyers wait for a clear direction. Grains stay quiet, and dairy can’t decide which way to move. It’s a week of watching, waiting, and wondering what’s next.
BEEF: The market keeps trending lower as buyers wait for the bottom, with even middle meats taking a brief pause. The question is – are we nearing the end of this slide, or just the calm before the holiday push?
POULTRY: Chicken is nearing the bottom of its market s...
Relief or Rally ❓🥩🧈
This week the markets send mixed signals – beef prices slide but middle meats refuse to budge, chicken keeps dropping while avian flu stirs again, and pork bellies dip as loins hold value. Grains stay calm and dairy finally bounces after weeks of decline. Is this the start of real relief, or just the setup for another rally?
BEEF: Prices are slipping across most cuts, with chucks, sirloin flap, rounds, and grinds leading the way lower. Even ribeyes and tenderloins paused their climb, though holiday demand will likely push them higher again soon. The big question – will...
Beef’s Biggest Threat Yet? 🐂⚠️
The screw worm is closing in on Texas, threatening the nation’s largest cattle herd and the beef market with it. Avian flu resurfaces, pork stays steady, and butter keeps sliding – but is beef facing its biggest challenge yet?
BEEF: The new screw worm was found less than 70 miles from Texas, potentially impacting the beef industry. Prices are falling for many cuts, but ribeyes and tenderloins stay expensive. The real question – do we have a few more weeks of relief, or are we on the brink of something much bigger?
POULTRY: Avian...
The Market Exhale 😌📉🍗
After weeks of rising costs, the markets are finally taking a breather. Beef is still tight, chicken is easing, pork bellies are drifting lower, and dairy might be finding its bottom. It’s not a full cooldown, but it feels like the first exhale in a long while.
BEEF: Harvest ticked up to 561K head, but most cuts are easing lower – a welcome shift after months of pressure. Middle meats like ribeyes and tenderloins remain stubbornly high, and with the holidays ahead, record pricing could be in play. The real question: how long before consumer push...
Cluck and Decline 🐔📉👀
Poultry leads the move lower as chicken prices ease, but across the board, the markets are full of mixed signals. Beef stays strong, dairy keeps sliding, and pork and grains add their own twists.
BEEF: Demand is cooling a touch with grinds, briskets, and flanks easing back, but ribeyes and tenderloins are still charging higher. Supplies remain too tight for a true correction, so any relief looks more like a pause than a pullback. Heading into the holidays, the pain point for consumers hasn’t hit yet – and we may not be close.
PO...
High Steaks, Low Falls 🥩📉🐓
Summer’s still sizzling in the beef market, but other proteins and dairy are slipping. From ribeye highs to butter slides, it’s a week of high steaks and low falls across the board.
BEEF: Signs point to the market finally cooling as we move through September – but it may be short-lived. Ribeyes, tenderloins, chucks, rounds, and grinds are still climbing, though thin meats like skirts and briskets are starting to slip. With herds small and Mexico still closed, high prices aren’t going anywhere soon… moderation may be coming, but not just yet.
POULT...
Belly Flop 🥓🏊♀️☀️
Summer’s wrapping up, but the markets are still making waves. Pork bellies take a dive, beef keeps the heat on, and chicken cools just in time for football season. From butter drops to grain gluts, it’s a late-summer belly flop across the board.
BEEF: Prices keep climbing as production stays tight – 547K head harvested this week and even fewer expected with the holiday ahead. Chucks, grinds, ribeyes, and tenderloins are leading the charge, while strips are still the relative value. The market may cool off soon, but not yet – buy now, waiting will cost you...
The Calm Before the Fall 📉🍂
Sorry for the delay, we were on vacation on Friday. Market Updates for last week below!
BEEF: Prices keep climbing across the board – ribeyes, tenderloins, chucks, and rounds are all on fire. With packers still losing money, production dropping, and the Southern border closed to live animal imports, pressure is building. Relief may come after Labor Day – but will it be too little, too late?
POULTRY: Chicken stays strong with production up and demand steady – wings are flat for now while breasts and tenders ease a bit. Football season could give wings...
Grill Bills 🔥💳
BEEF: The summer beef rally isn’t slowing down – low production and high demand are keeping prices on the move. Middle meats, chucks, rounds, and grinds are all climbing, setting us up for a pricey Labor Day BBQ. Will the market cool after the holiday, or will tight cattle supplies keep the heat on?
POULTRY: Production is running 1% ahead of last year, with demand staying strong as chicken remains the go-to alternative to high beef prices. Wings are steady for now, but will football season send them higher? Six weeks with no new Avia...
Meating Market Heat 🔥🥩
BEEF: Prices are surging in the dead of summer – and it’s not slowing down. With record-high cattle costs and packers losing $300 a head, the market’s acting more like spring than August… so what’s driving this upside?
POULTRY: Chicken stays steady – strong production, strong demand, and no big price moves on the horizon. With five weeks flu-free and beef heating up, is poultry about to hold its ground or ride the market wave?
GRAINS: Grains keep sliding – with corn dipping under $4 a bushel for the first time in a long whil...
Summer Slide ☀️🛝
BEEF: The market’s still sliding, but not as fast as you'd think with production this tight. Ribeyes and tenderloins? We may have already hit the year's low – so is an expensive holiday season inevitable? Thin meats are dropping, grinds dipped too, but this market’s playing a long game.
POULTRY: Chicken production is holding strong – wings are steady, breasts are ticking up, and tenders dipped a bit. Demand isn’t going anywhere, but will prices stay calm? Plus, we’re a month Avian flu-free – can we keep the streak alive?
GRAINS:...
Pork on Repeat 🎵🐖
BEEF: The summer slide continues. Ribeyes and strips are dragging the market down, and briskets and grinds are finally dipping – but don’t let your guard down just yet. With production still sluggish, we’ve likely got a few more weeks of softness before fall starts cooking up something new.
POULTRY: Demand is driving this market – wings, breasts, and tenders are all on the rise. With summer heat slowing growth and no sign of appetite cooling off, prices could keep climbing. Three Avian Flu-free weeks in a row? Let’s hope the streak sticks.
Meltdown Mode 🔥🧈📉
BEEF: Beef is finally cooling off—but is it enough? Strip loins and ribeyes are leading the decline, but ground beef and roasts are holding firm. With production still lagging behind last year, could this be the start of a slow slide or just a summer stall?
POULTRY: Chicken remains the go-to protein, but how long can it hold? Wings are flying high on demand, breasts and tenders are steady, and production is slightly up. No new Avian Flu reports this week, which is always good news.
GRAINS: Soybeans ar...
Beef Prices Finally Blink
Beef: Beef prices are finally starting to cool after the July 4th holiday – but how fast will they fall, and which cuts will drop first? With low production still keeping things tight, we’re not in freefall territory yet… but if you’re buying ribeyes, strips, or grinds, you’ll want to hear what’s coming next.
Poultry: Chicken remains the go-to protein, with wings in tight supply and prices climbing again. Breasts and tenders are steady for now – but with hot summer temps affecting animal intake and a new avian flu case on the radar...
Heat Across the Board 🔥📈
Beef is still riding high – tight supply, strong demand, and prices climbing week after week. But is relief finally in sight? You might want to stock up before the July 4th smoke clears… 🍔🔥
Wings are flying high, breasts are still dropping, and tenders are holding their ground – but has chicken found its balance yet? With nearly 5 billion birds processed and no new avian flu cases, something’s gotta give… 🍗🐔
Grains took a tumble this week, so is the rally already over? With strong crop conditions, ample supply, and fierce global competition, prices are falling fast. Could weather or globa...
Thin Meats, Thick Margins 🥩💰
🐄 Beef is still sky-high – and it’s not done climbing. With production low and demand strong, one cut in particular is leading the charge this summer… guess which?
🐔 Chicken is having a moment – and tenders just took the crown from breasts. With summer demand heating up, could wings be the next breakout star?
🌾 Grains look steady – for now. But with soy on the move and global tensions flaring, could the calm be short-lived?
🥓 Bellies are sizzling, and bacon’s about to get pricier. But with butts climbing too, how long can this heat last?
🧈 Butter’s r...
High on the Hog 🐷
BEEF
Beef remains pricey and hard to find – and even with harvest back up, prices are still climbing. Are we finally nearing a cooldown, or will thin meats keep leading this market higher into July?
POULTRY
Chicken is still the go-to protein, but are we seeing the first signs of a shift? Breast prices dip slightly, tenders rise again, and wings climb – plus, a glimmer of good news on the avian flu front.
GRAINS
Grain markets are idling in neutral, with only slight bump...
The Heat is On 🔥
🥩 BEEF
An already tight beef market just got tighter, and pricing is on the move. With thin meats leading the charge and grilling season in full swing, the question now is: how high will it go before the July 4th reset?
🍗 POULTRY
Wings are back on the rise, tenders are heating up, and breasts are finally cooling – but for how long? Just one new avian flu case – but it hit 1.3 million egg layers, pushing our 3-week total to 5 million birds lost.
🌾 GRAINS
Everyone’s bracing for a surge in the...
Buy Now, Grill Later 🍔
🥩 BEEF – The market’s tight and getting tighter. Fewer cattle, expensive steaks, and grinds climbing week after week mean burgers are the summer go-to. With no slowdown in sight, it’s a buy now or pay more later situation.
🐔 POULTRY – Breasts are pausing after a steady climb, while tenders are still on the rise with strong demand. Wings are steady at the bottom, and chicken overall remains the budget-friendly protein pick. Another rough week for avian flu—fewer cases, but big impact.
🌾 GRAINS – Last week’s corn rally fizzled, with corn, soy, and whe...
Screwed Over: When Worms Attack
🐄 BEEF:
Border closures, parasite threats, and tight supplies – yeah, it’s getting intense. Grinds and thin meats are climbing, middle meats are taking a breather. Memorial Day will tighten harvest even more. This is a buy now or cry later kind of market.
🐔 POULTRY:
Chicken’s still climbing – breasts, tenders, all holding strong. Wings? Still the bargain. But a big bump in avian flu cases could shake things up.
🌾 GRAINS:
Corn and wheat are on the rise as the market bets on stronger export demand. Soy lost some steam m...
High Steaks & Market Shakes
BEEF 🥩
Record-breaking cattle prices, border closures, and tight supply are all putting heat on the beef market. Grinds are leading the charge, and summer grilling might come with sticker shock.
POULTRY 🐔
Chicken stays hot as demand rises and beef prices push more eyes to poultry. Wings still can’t catch a break, but breasts and tenders are on the move. Avian flu update: a few new cases, mostly turkeys.
GRAINS 🌾
Corn and soy planting are ahead of schedule and looking strong. Soy demand is picking up – could be sett...
Moms, Meats, & Markets 🌼
Beef remains tight — production ticks up slightly, but grilling season and shifting demand are pushing grinds higher. Some middle meats are cooling, others still heating up.
Poultry prices still split — tenders climb, breasts stay high, wings dip again. Production’s up and bird flu cases stayed low this week.
Grains drift down — corn and wheat slide, soy holds firm. Ethanol chatter could shake things up.
Pork cools off — bellies dip, loins still a solid value, and butts barely budge. Summer could bring the heat back.
Da...
May the Markets Be With You 🚀
The beef market is catching its breath, but ground beef continues to climb as shoppers trade down from pricier cuts. Could this pause be the calm before another round of increases?
Chicken takes a breather this week, but there’s chatter about a possible summer sandwich surge. Plus, a surprisingly quiet week on the avian flu front during peak migration season.
Grain markets are stuck in a holding pattern, but talk of drought and rising oil prices could stir things up. Planting’s on track – for now.
Dair...
Describe Your Perfect Date: Wings
Beef production remains limited as packers focus on profit over volume, keeping middle meats inflated heading into summer. Chucks and rounds are softening, while ground beef is climbing as consumers trade down. Buy early – prices aren’t cooling off anytime soon.
In poultry, boneless skinless breasts and tenders continue to climb, while wings drop again, making them the value buy. Production is steady at 1% above last year, which will likely continue. No new avian flu reports this week – though USDA updates have stalled, likely due to reduced services, not reduced risk.
Grai...
The Birds Are in Your Favor 🍗
We're back with some Spring Market Trends!
Beef production remains tight at 564K head, keeping prices strong, especially for ribeyes, tenderloins, and strip loins. With Cinco de Mayo approaching, thin meats are in high demand, and waiting to buy will likely cost you more.
Strong beef prices are driving up demand and prices for chicken breasts and tenders, while wings continue to drop and are now the best value. Despite peak migration season, avian flu impact was minimal this week, with 9 cases and 326K birds affected.
...
Eggflation Cracks 🥚💰
Beef: Tight inventories and rising demand continue to push the market higher, with last week’s production dropping to 560K head. Ribeyes are climbing, while rounds and chucks are still trending down. This is a buy-now market—waiting will likely cost you more in the coming weeks.
Poultry: Boneless skinless breasts and tenders are up again, while wing prices may have hit their floor. Production remains strong, running 2% ahead of last year. Avian flu reports were minimal, and shell egg prices continue to decline just in time for Easter.
Pork: P...
The Markets Are Blooming 🌸 📈
Happy Spring!
Beef: Warmer weather has jump-started the beef market, with strip loins and ribeyes seeing a price surge. Production is inching up, but inventories remain tight, and thin meats like flanks, sirloin flaps, and skirts will rise through Cinco de Mayo. Outside of grinds moving lower, waiting to buy could mean paying more later.
Poultry: Chicken wings are dropping in price, while breasts continue to climb, and tenders remain steady. Production is up 3% from last year, but the hatch rate has dipped below the ideal 80%. Despite 11 new avian...
Meating Demand: Harvest Ticks Up
Weekly beef harvests rose to 578K head from 566K last week. As the weather improves and grilling season picks up, harvests could approach 600K head. Middle meats, chucks, rounds, and grinds have likely bottomed out and are expected to climb, making now a good time to buy.
Shell egg prices have dropped – not because of better availability but due to reduced demand from high prices. Avian flu reports were low this week, with only 4,800 birds affected. In chicken, boneless skinless breasts and tenders are rising, wings are declining, and YT...
A Welcome Break on Egg Pricing
Beef remains in the same pattern as previous months. Rounds, chucks, and grinds continue declining while middle meats trade sideways. There is some sign of life within thin meats, flank steak, and sirloin flaps.
Poultry production and demand continue strong. Breasts and tenders are up for next week. It was the best week we've had in months on the Avian Flu front. There were 9 new reports affecting 188k birds. Eggs have hit a peak with no increase in pricing for next week.
The grain market will remain...
Migration, Tariffs, and End of Winter Markets
Beef processors continue to keep production numbers down. Strip loins are moving higher while the other middle meats move lower. We've most likely seen the bottom on ribeyes and tenderloins. This pattern should hold steady in the next few weeks, waiting for warmer weather to help boost demand.
Chicken production continues running about 3% over last year. Wings are down for next week while breasts and tenders move higher. On the Avian Flu beat, 14 new reports since last week affecting 3.4 million birds. With Spring migration coming soon, the virus could be carried b...
Bellies Take a Big Drop
Beef harvest continues to decline which should slow price declines. The only area continuing to increase is strip loins. Other cuts should stay where they are until the weather breaks or demand picks up.
Avian Flu reports show 3.3 million birds were removed last week, with 3.1 million of those being egg-laying chickens. Egg pricing will continue to be high. Fresh chicken pricing is moving higher this week, but availability is good.
After the climb up, pork bellies have dropped to $136. Bacon is back on...
Eggs Stay on the Rise
Happy Valentine's Day! 💘
Another difficult week for Avian Flu. Eggs will continue to rise until we have enough supply to meet demand, which could be a while.
In fresh chicken, demand is strong and pricing is up on all three segments. There is plenty of chicken available and it's all being sold.
Beef harvest is down to keep pricing from falling during a lower beef demand month. This should continue into March. February should continue to see declines with a possible rally in March.
Pork bellies are outperforming expectations. The rest of...
Uneasy Beef Market
Avian Flu continues to infect poultry flocks. 32 new cases were reported this week affecting 3.8 million birds. This is not a short term issue.
For fresh chicken, wings and tenders are steady and breasts are up. Chicken production continues strong and a good option in protein.
Beef production will be reduced for the next couple of weeks. This will keep the market tight on inventory and slow declines. Middle meats, tenderloins, and ribeyes have hit their bottom. Buy just what you need.
Pork bellies close up...
Let's Review Avian Flu
We'll start this week with a quick recap of Avian Flu, followed by the report for the current week, and how the flock can be rebuilt.
In poultry, wings and tenders are steady while breasts are up just a bit. Enjoy these prices on Super Bowl Sunday.
February is a soft month for beef demand and the market is due for some correction. Middle meats have finished their declines after the holidays. Strips and grinds are moving higher and chucks and rounds have peaked for now. Buy what you...
Avian Flu Hits Egg Layers
Chicken production continues strong up over last year by 2%. For the week we have steady markets on wings, boneless skinless breasts up just a bit and tenders staying steady for the week. The hatch rate is down to 78.9%, hatch rate being the percentage of eggs successfully hatched into baby chicks. Industry goal is 80% which we have not reached in about a year. I do expect we will see steady to higher prices on wings with football playoffs in full swing and March Madness on the horizon. On the Avian Flu front, it just doesn’t let up. 17 new cases reporte...
Quiet Start to 2025
The beef market is remarkably strong starting the year. Ribeyes and tenderloins continue to decline while chucks, rounds, and grinds continue to increase. We should see this pattern for a couple more weeks.
Chicken production is up 3% over last year. Wings, breasts, and tenders are steady. This week, two million birds were removed from the food chain due to Avian Flu.
Pork bellies are down just a bit and won't be moving lower any time soon. Buy if you need, but no need to go crazy. Loins are a...
Brutal Week for Avian Flu
The beef market is very tight after the holidays and winter weather. We have seen steady increases in rounds, chucks, and grinds. Ribeyes and tenderloins are declining just a bit. If you need middle meats, wait to buy; with all other cuts, waiting will cost you money.
Chicken production has started the year off strong. Pricing on wings, breasts, and tenders is holding steady. Expect to see modest increases over the next few weeks. We had another brutal week for Avian Flu affecting 3.4 million birds, mostly egg-laying chickens.
...
2025 Markets Kick-Off
Last week's holiday-shortened production of 434K head and this week's reduced schedule has tightened beef inventories to start the year. While ribeyes and tenderloins continue to decline in value, rounds, chucks, and grinds are climbing, with forecasts pointing to higher beef prices and lower per capita consumption in 2025.
Chicken prices are steady, with 2024 production up 2% over 2023 and projections for stable production and slightly lower pricing in 2025. However, the avian flu outbreak remains severe, with over 17.7 million birds affected in the last 30 days and no signs of improvement.
Pork bellies...
