Al Ahly Pharos

*Key fundamental views for today*    

- Market Overview 

- ABUK

- EFIH

- EGAL

- FWRY 

- ALCN

- prepared by; Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key fundamental views for today*    

Strategy| FWRY and EGAL offer value post yesterday's sell-off

Macro| Core Inflation up in April, no threat to expected easing path

Macro| Restoring normal traffic to the Suez canal might take months

Macro| The Government will tap international financial markets before mid-2025

JUFO| ST performance may remain under pressure on plunge in orange juice concentrates w/w

ARCC| Two-month quota suspension casts doubt on ARCC FY25 earnings

<...

Market Overview 

prepared by : Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key fundamental views for today*

STRATEGY| EGX30 should find support in potential US-China trade deal/India-Pakistan ceasefire/EG sovereign CDS compression

MACRO| There is room for 100-200 bps policy rate cut on 22 May post April inflation print

MACRO| USD/EGP 2025 outlook remains stable at 51-53 amid strong signs of commitment to IMF program

ARCC| Coal and sales mix to drive GPM expansion in 2025

SKPC| 1Q-25 results are almost flat y/y and 2Q results will likely remain...

- Market Overview 

- BTFH

- PRCL 

- OIH

- CLHO

- prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly stated that the fifth review of the IMF loan program will start within few days, according to local press.              

Egypt is committed to paying USD725 million to the IMF during the current month of May, and USD962 million in June, after paying USD1.56 billion during 4M2025.

The Madbouly government expects to raise USD4-5 bn from selling stakes in 11 state-owned companies during the fiscal year 2025-2026, as a part of its privatization program.

The government is putting together new incentive criteria and additional benefits for automakers participating in the Automoti...

- Market Overview 

- Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key news articles for today*

Net International Reserves inched up to USD48.14 billion at the end of April, up from USD47.76 billion in March. The ascent is driven by a USD1 billion increase in the value of gold component of reserves, driving the reserves up, despite the lower value of foreign currencies which recorded USD34.32 billion down from USD35.14 billion in March.

Trump said the US would stop attacking the Houthis in Yemen, as Oman confirmed a "ceasefire" had been reached with the Iran-backed group for it to stop targeting shipping in the...

- Market Overview 

- BTFH

- FWRY 

- ORAS

- TAQA

-  ELEC

- prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The CBE has released the Balance of Payment (BoP)'s performance report for 1HFY2024/25. Key points are: 1) The overall BoP recorded a deficit of USD503 million in 1HFY2024/25, and 2) The current account (CA) deficit has surged by 15% YoY to c. USD11.1 billion. 

A team from the International Monetary Fund will begin the fifth review of the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement in Cairo this week. Further details will be communicated at the conclusion of the mission,” IMF Press Officer Angham Al Shami said.

The headline PMI declined from 49.2 in March to 48.5 in April, which was the low...

- Market Overview 

- CSAG

- ORWE

- ALCN

- ETEL

- Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe 

*Key news articles for today*

Abu Dhabi wealth fund ADQ-owned AD Ports Group has inked a 50-year renewable usufruct agreement with the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) to develop and operate an industrial and logistics zone spanning 20 sqkm in East Port Said.

Net foreign assets in Egypt’s banking sector increased for the third consecutive month to USD15.04 billion in March, up c. 47.5% from February’s USD10.2 billion. Commercial banks recorded their first surplus since August; their net foreign assets came in at USD2.5 billion in March.

The go...

- Market Overview 

- HELI

- BTFH

- PHDC

- APSW

- ETEL

- Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Tourist arrivals rose 25% y/y in 1Q25 to 3.9 million. Tourism minister expects the 5% y/y increase in 2024 to be followed by an 8% y/y increase in 2025.

The House of Representatives will start discussing amendments to the Old Rent Law today.

The IMF said in its latest Regional Economic Outlook that “economic activity is expected to pick up but remain modest” this year in Egypt.

According to IMF data, public debt fell to 89% of GDP by the end of FY23/24, compared to 95.7% at the end of the previous year.

Fitch Solutions expects Egyp...

- Market Overview 

- COMI

- ALCN

- RMDA

- ETEL

- OFH

- Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key news articles for today*

Egypt is having to increasingly look to debt to bridge the budget deficit and repay its debt obligations, with the government financing gap in the next fiscal year’s draft budget up by over 25% to EGP 3.6 tn. The widening shortfall is attributed to a fall in non-tax revenues coupled with increased social spending.

The days of investors trudging from government office to government office to get projects off the ground may soon be over, with the state set to launch its in-the-works online unified licensing platform nex...

Market Overview 

Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

China’s Wu’an Xin Feng has kicked off construction on its planned USD1.7 bn integrated industrial complex in Ain Sokhna’s Industrial Zone, the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) said in a statement. The two-phase complex being built by the company’s Egyptian arm Xin Feng Egypt Steel will be completed over a five-year period and create 8k direct jobs.

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is putting together USD300 mn in budget support for Egypt, Planning and International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat said. The agreement is expected to be finalized by June, Al Mashat said, ad...

- Market Overview 

- HRHO

- MASR

- RMDA

- MFPC

- TAQA

- Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

We published this morning our earnings expectations sheet for companies under coverage in 1Q25/FY25, with the following key conclusions:

...

- Market Overview 

- COMI

- ALCN

- PHDC

- EFIH

- ORAS

- ORHD

- Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The World Bank sees the Egyptian economy growing at a 3.8% y/y clip during the fiscal year 2024-2025, raising its outlook 0.3 percentage points from its 3.5% forecast in October.

The Finance Ministry is considering exempting imported auto parts used in manufacturing from the 3% state development fee, to instead collect the fees upon commercial sales and during license renewals, following a proposal from car manufacturers, a government source said.

Egypt’s unemployment rate dropped to 6.6% of the total workforce in 2024, down 0.4 percentage points from 2023, according to data from CAPMAS.

The Finance Ministry has issued a gu...

- Market Overview 

- COMI

- HRHO

- FWRY 

- EFIH

- AMOC

- PHDC

- prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key news articles for today*

 The IMF raised Egypt’s economic growth to 3.8% YoY this fiscal year, up 0.2pps from its January forecast. Its projection for the coming fiscal year was also up, likewise coming in 0.2pps higher from its previous projection to 4.3% YoY. The IMF also sees inflation continuing to dip this fiscal year to a monthly average of 19.7% YoY.

The IMF forecasts global growth to log 2.8% in 2025, down 0.5 percentage point from previous estimates. Growth is expected to edge up to 3.0% in 2026, though this remains below the IMF’s earlier projec...

- Market Overview 

- BTFH

- EMFD

- EHDR

- FWRY

- ELSH

- Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The Monetary Policy Committee decided on Thursday to cut policy rates by 225 basis points to 25% and 26% for overnight deposit and overnight lending rates respectively. 

The government is planning to replace many of the various fees charged by different entities with a single unified additional tax on net income, which aims to streamline the tax system and reduce the administrative burden on businesses. 

Saudi-owned agribusiness and Alkhorayef Group subsidiary Rakhaa for Agricultural Investment and Development is planning to list 30% of its shares on the EGX in a secondary offering in 2H 2025, Alkhorayef’s Managing Director Abdullah Alkh...

- Market Overview 

- TMGH

- ORHD

- MENA

- ELSH

- ELKA

- Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The MPC is scheduled to meet later today to decide on interest rates. We believe the CBE has the room to ease by up to 200 bps in its meeting today.

The Finance Ministry has more than doubled its target for international debt issuances in the draft budget for the next fiscal year, coming in at a total of EGP400 billion (USD8 billion), up from EGP150 billion (USD3 billion) in the current fiscal year, according to official figures. 

Remittances from Egyptians abroad continued their upward pace at the start of the year, rising 83.2% y-o-y to USD2.9 b...

- Market Overview 

- prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key news articles for today*

 The House has passed the new Labor Act. The new act needs to be published in the Official Gazette and we’ll need to see the executive regulations to it. The country’s specialized labor courts (a key feature of the law) are expected to start operating on 1 October 2025 when the new judicial year kicks off.

Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk delivered his budget statement to the House. Highlights of the budget include:

1. Egypt’s real GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 4.5% in the coming f...

- Market Overview 

- PHDC

- TMGH

- EFIH

- EKHOA

- FWRY 

-.prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

El Sisi wrapped his Qatar trip with a big investment agreement, which saw the Gulf state further cement warming relations by agreeing to work towards a USD7.5 bn package of direct Qatari investments in Egypt in the near future, according to a joint statement from the two nations.

The Industry Ministry launched the first phase of a new EGP 30 bn financing initiative offering reduced 15% interest rates to seven priority industrial sectors, according to a ministry statement. 

Majid Al Futtaim Holdings’ (MAF) Majid Al Futtaim Properties is investing EGP15 bn in a new mixed-use project dubbed Jun...

- Market Overview 

- EFIH

- ETEL

- COMI

- CIEB

- HRHO

- prepared by : Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Saudi players have been signaling interest in possibly expanding their investment footprint in Egypt. Saudi companies could raise their investments in Egypt by as much as USD15 billion over the next four years to USD50 billion.

Batterjee Holding has earmarked USD200 million to invest in Egyptian real estate and industry. Batterjee mentioned the pharma, food, building materials, and plastics industries as target sectors. 

An Egyptian-Saudi real estate fund could be in the cards. The fund could, if formed, manage a portfolio of investments under the purview of the New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) and the T...

- Market Overview 

- prepared by: Mohamed Othman - CETA, CFTe

Monthly urban headline CPI inflation recorded 1.6% in March 2025 compared to 1.4% in February. On an annual basis, urban inflation recorded 13.6% compared to 12.8% in February. 

Egypt’s Fuel Automatic Pricing Committee raised on Friday prices of gasoline and diesel by EGP2, but kept diesel fuel supplied to electricity, food industries, and vehicle gas unchanged.

Fitch Ratings affirmed Egypt's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B' with a Stable Outlook. 

S&P Global Ratings revised Egypt’s outlook to stable from positive and maintained its B-/B rating for Egypt’s long- and short-term local and fore...

- Market Overview 

- COMI

- CIEB

- OIH

- MFPC

- prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

 Trump dropped new tariff rates on imports from most U.S. trade partners to 10% for 90 days to allow trade negotiations with those countries, while raising the tariffs imposed on imports from China to 125% “effective immediately”.

The EGP dipped against the USD during trading yesterday, setting a new post-float low as the greenback changed hands for EGP 51.72-51.75.

The Sovereign Fund of Egypt (SFE) will begin restructuring five military-owned companies ahead of their planned listing. The firms are filling station operator Wataneya, bottled water company Safi, food manufacturer Silo Foods, fuel retailer Chill Out, and t...