Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

This is a recording from the DBS Asia Insights Conference 2025, held in Jakarta on May 21. I had the privilege of discussing Indonesia’s near and medium term outlook with Chatib Basri, former finance minister. In this conversation, Mr. Basri talks about Indonesia’s strategy during a time of geoeconomic fragmentation, the ability of the economy to absorb shocks, what it would take to reach 8% growth, the challenges to education, health, and infrastructure, sectoral development strategies in place, and the future of jobs amid tech disruption. An erudite speaker,  Mr. Basri’s insights are invaluable to those following South East Asia’s...

Prof Danny Quah, Dean of LKY School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, returns to Kopi Time to share his insights on the dangers and opportunities stemming from the changing world order. We go over two of his recent pieces; first, an open letter to the US president (penned before the US elections last November, and second, a research paper on the correlation between global trade and geopolitics. Prof Quah dissects the great power rivalry through (i) the perception of win-win versus zero sum and (ii) a tendency to attribute domestic welfare shortfalls (blue collar jobs...

Dr. Krishna Srinivasan, IMF’s Director of the Asia and Pacific Department, takes us on a journey of Asia, which is facing a major challenge to its export-led growth model. With geoeconomic fragmentation intensifying, how do nations strike a balance between trade promotion and domestic demand support? From China to India, South Korea to Vietnam, what is the outlook for growth, interest rate, and exchange rate, and what are the IMF’s fiscal, monetary, and structural policy prescriptions? What are the risk scenarios, given the heightened levels of uncertainty? What about the usage of the US dollar and financial stab...

Alicia Gregory, Managing Director at Blue Owl, an alternative asset manager, joins Kopi Time to walk us through private equity, a USD12trln asset class. Drawing on her extensive experience as a PE investor, Alicia begins by going over the genesis of the industry. We then go through a number of topics, including the structure of private equity investments, key investment strategies, PE’s track record relative to public equity markets, and the state of the PE cycle and the outlook for 2025. We also cover the PE secondary market, connection between private debt and private equity, PE’s foray into...

Kopi Time hits 5 years and 150 episodes! We celebrate the milestone with Piyush Gupta, outgoing CEO of DBS Bank Ltd. Piyush brings his remarkable intellectual breadth in this conversation, in which we touch upon various aspects of the present and future of banking. We begin by discussing how banks in Asia and the West have evolved since the 2008/09 global financial crisis, and their track record in embracing digital banking, financial inclusion, risk management, and relationship with regulators. Piyush then weighs in on conventional banks versus pure-play digital banks. The conversation moves on to the digital asset ecosystem and what that...

We welcome a foremost expert on the science of aging, lifespan, and healthspan, Professor Brian Kennedy, Distinguished Professor of Biochemistry and Physiology, National University of Singapore. In this fascinating conversation, we begin by understanding senescence, the process of functional decay of organisms. Prof Kennedy explores aging at physical and cognitive levels, and its linkage with genetics, diet, and exercise. We then delve into the scientific work going with several molecules that appear to be promising in slowing cell decay, including alpha keto-glutarate, spermidine, and the in-vouge NAD. Prof Kennedy is a keen proponent of data-driven personalised approach to medicine...

We dive into the rapidly growing world of private credit. Meghan Neenan, managing director and the North America head of Non-Bank Financial Institutions at FitchRatings, walks us through the sector’s genesis, scale, depth, structure, participants, transparency of reporting, and regulatory dimension. What are the vulnerabilities around the economic cycle? Are there financial stability risks? What are the newest trends, from the spread of retail offerings to blended structures? Is this an inflection moment for private credit, as it jumps toward ubiquity? Meghan is clearly constructive.

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We welcome back to Kopi Time Kishore Mahbubani, distinguished diplomat, academic, and writer on geopolitics. Our conversation, recorded in Mumbai, kicks off with India’s promise and challenges vis-à-vis the US and China, with the former turning increasingly protectionist and latter facing a myriad of domestic and external challenges. Mahbubani sees no room for emotion in geopolitics, expecting to see India follow its pragmatic instincts to pursue industrialisation with capital and technology from both superpowers. We then discuss Trump 2.0, the future of multilateralism, and Asia’s place in the great power rivalry. Always sharp and insightful.

See o...

We welcome back Dr. Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy at Heinrich Foundation, Singapore, for a timely discussion on intensifying trade wars. We set the context by looking at the past decade of rising protectionism and the impact on the global economy. Deborah points out that despite all the frictions, global trade volume has increased. But at the same time, industry lobbying for protection has also risen, and the dream of creating numerous manufacturing jobs has remained largely unfulfilled. The irony is that protectionism, in today’s tech and automation-intensive production processes, rewards the capital owner much more than la...

Happy new year! We kick off the year with a discussion on the likely impact of Trump policies on US markets, starting with the 1890s McKinley tariff narrative. There are major lessons for the market outlook from that episode, in our view. Returning to the present, we think through the ways tariffs and immigration measures can complicate the inflation picture and the Fed easing narrative. From there, we consider implications for rates, credit, and FX. We then assess the Asian outlook in the context of Trump 2.0. We end with a stock-taking of China’s recent economic performance and the ro...

We bring the year to an end with astute market strategist and Fed watcher Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar. Sri begins by taking stock of the US economy and markets, how they have been fuelled by fiscal stimulus and the Fed put. Sri is a strong critic of the Fed’s track record on price and financial stability, and he worries that inflation and market risks could be back on the horizon in 2025, even if they seem remote now. We talk about the balance sheet of US households, which look fine on aggregate, but Sri points out that those at the lo...

Are today’s policy challenges and market behaviour largely about post pandemic macro, or are they reflecting fiscal, monetary, and financial “dominance” that stem from two decades of interventions? Mustafa Chowdhury, a veteran of bond and credit market analysis, returns to Kopi Time to offer a nuanced but highly important perspective on the impact of policy distortion on market behaviour. Why did the long-end of the US yield curve sell-off after the September rate cut? Why haven’t banks reduced their duration exposure despite the regional bank crisis last year? Why are long-term mortgage rates so high and why aren’t s...

Gaurav Keerthi, Head of Advisory and Emerging Business at Ensign InfoSecurity, joins Kopi Time to provide a fascinating overview of the current state of affairs in cybersecurity. We begin with the intersection of geopolitics and cyberattacks. From state sponsored defensive and offensive teams to independent actors with a range of motives, the number of agents attacking the integrity of national power grids, airports, water supply, along with healthcare and education systems, has proliferated at an extraordinary pace in recent decades. In addition to nations, large companies and individuals face millions of attacks a day that are increasingly sophisticated. Even...

All about India’s financial markets with Ashish Gupta, CIO of Axis Mutual Fund, one of the largest and fastest growing asset management companies in India. Ashish digs into his multi-decade experience on covering Indian banks and nonbank financial companies to lay out a comprehensive picture of the current state of affairs. We go over the factors underlying the buoyancy of India’s public and private capital markets, investor sentiment and behaviour on equities, RBI’s regulatory role, and bank balance sheets and earnings outlook. Ashish provides excellent insights into the dynamic of successful exits by foreign investors laying the gr...

We dive into the implications of Donald Trump’s emphatic win at the US presidential elections. Angela Mancini, partner at Control Risks, a global specialist risk consultancy, discusses the factors underlying the outcome, its implication for US policy, especially with regards to Asia. We talk about business strategies under Trump 2.0, and the key issue--risks around China-US relations. We also talk about where the Democratic Party goes from here. The podcast was recorded at our annual macro and markets outlook event. Here is the publication that goes with it. Defying the trend: Economic Outlook and Market Strategy for 2025.

Se...

What is the current state of fintech? Varun Mittal, founder of Fintech Nation, returns to Kopi Time after nearly 100 episodes to comment on the changes in the last four years. We discuss the depth and breadth of the sector, its profitability and investor returns across geographies, and the competition/collaboration relationship between banks and nonbank financial companies. We discuss fintech’s role in wealth planning and financial inclusion, the proliferation of payments solutions, and the state of development in the worlds of cryptos, stablecoins, and CBDCs. Discussions then move on to the impact of AI/GenAI on the financial se...

This podcast is an 11-minute reflection on the recently concluded IMF annual meetings, held at Washington DC. The meetings were characterised by relief over global economic resiliency, juxtaposed by heightened concerns about a variety of risks. Global growth is expected to remain stable between 2024 and 2025. Concerns about inflation have receded, but we caution against a victory lap. USD weaponisation and trade wars are causing investor strategies to shift. EM resilience would be tested by the outcome of the US elections. Intersection of AI and capital markets is generating interest from regulators. We discuss a chapter in the IMF’s Gl...

Shai Akabas, Executive Director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Economic Policy Program, joins Kopi Time to discuss all things US fiscal. There is no silver lining in this conversation, the outlook is gloomy, period. We begin with the US fiscal position over the past 25 years, going from balanced budget to deficits of around 7% of GDP, from net debt/GDP of 35% to 100%. Shai walks us through the various unfunded tax cuts and emergency spending outlays, with no consensus on dealing with the ballooning fiscal obligations, that led to today’s situation. And the outlook, with funding for various entitlement prog...

Drew Thompson, Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, brings his deep China and Taiwan expertise to Kopi Time. Taiwan stands at the crossroads of tech manufacturing excellence and geopolitical tension. How does its recent political developments look from the perspective of its local population, mainland China, and the US administration? How will its politics and economic policies evolve in the coming years? Beyond the superpowers, how is Taiwan’s relationship evolving vis-à-vis SE Asia, India, S Korea, and Japan? What are the risk scenarios ahead? Drew provides unvarnished perspectives and ana...

Writer and academic Alexander Capri returns to Kopi Time after nearly 5 years, but the issues we discussed then and now remain relevant, if not even more so. In this engaging chat, Alex walks us through the expanding notion of techno-nationalism, its impact on trade patterns and flows, and corporate strategies around geopolitical fragmentation. We touch upon the innovation race between China and the US, China’s digital belt-and-road strategy, and the trans-Atlantic tech alliance. We consider the implication of all this for South-East Asia, as well as India.

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Vasuki Shastry, Senior Advisor at Gatehouse Advisory Partners, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the decade-old “Make in India” initiative. From Production Linked Incentives (PLI) to splashy marketing campaigns, this has been a signature initiative by the Indian government under Prime Minister Modi. What has been the accomplishment of this effort to usher in a new era of manufacturing in India? Vasuki’s report card is blunt—"it has been a qualified failure.” We go through the data on investment, job creation, technology transfer, and competition to assess his claim. We also discuss India’s complex regional heterogeneity, centre-state...

Jennifer Sciubba, PhD, President and CEO of Population Reference Bureau, joins Kopi Time to discuss the science and policy dimensions of demographics. She begins by explaining the various ways of looking at population projections, pointing out that for most cases in recent decades, forecasts have ended up erring on the side of higher fertility. With fertility surprising on the downside and life expectancy rising, there is an overwhelming dynamic of rising median age the population around the world. Aging is pervasive and largely impervious to policy intervention. As people get wealthier and more educated, they tend to have less c...

Prakash Kannan, Chief Economist and Director of the Economics & Investment Strategy department at GIC, returns to Kopi Time to talk about evolving macro developments and implications for asset allocation. We cover it all in this discussion, from Fed outlook to EM resiliency, global liquidity to China policy, yen carry trade to gold, and how a portfolio suitable for the past decade is unlikely to bear similar fruit going forward. Lots of insights.

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This conversation is about a flagship report on Southeast Asia’s outlook. Earlier this year, researchers from DBS, Angsana Council (backed by Monk’s Hill Ventures), and Bain & Company came together to query the drivers of regional economic performance in recent decades and the outlook for the coming decade. The work was done taking into account ongoing disruption from geopolitics, technology, and climate change. Charles Ormiston, founding partner of Bain and Company’s Southeast Asia business, and I talk about the motivation behind the report, our key findings, and strategy for the private and public sector in light of the re...

Shekhar Aiyar, a Non-resident Fellow at Bruegel, on leave from the International Monetary Fund, joins Kopi Time to mount a substantive case for globalisation, a much-maligned  word in some circles these days. Sharing his cutting edge research, Shekhar refers to considerable empirical evidence to establish the gains from trade for various parts of the global economy over the past half century. He then shares findings on the cost of reversing the course, a process termed as geoeconomic fragmentation. We discuss how that is measured, the estimated costs, and the implication for international monetary system and the global financial safety net...

James Crabtree, distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a senior fellow at the Asia Society, returns to Kopi Time to shed light on this year of momentous elections. We delve right into the US, first by taking stock of the ongoing drama around Trump, Biden, and Harris. We then consider the scenario of a Trump re-election and the likely outcomes around a Trump defeat. James has thoughtful views on what a Trump 2.0 would mean for Asia, as well as the impact on US domestic policies. We then talk about US strategy on Asia, particularly...

We discuss global payment trends with David Mann, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Mastercard. From experiential travel to business events, there has been a dramatic change in consumer preferences since the pandemic, with the rise in cost of living playing a key factor. We talk about the patterns picked up from Mastercard’s extensive data on transactions around the world. From shopping trends in Japan to tourism in South East Asia and India, as well as new fintech platforms and payment rails, David has a lot to share.

Link to Travel Trends 2024: https://www.mas...

Mdm Kay Kuok, Chair of the Yale-NUS Governing Board
Members of the Yale-NUS Governing Board
Professor Aaron Thean, Deputy President (Academic Affairs) and Provost of NUS
Professor Joanne Roberts, President of Yale-NUS College
Families, Yale-NUS community, and Friends

And dear graduates,

Most of you were the class of 2020 in high school, your graduations disrupted by a once in a century pandemic. Today, as the Yale-NUS graduating class of 2024, your lives are mercifully not disrupted. It would however be tone-deaf to not recognize that many graduates in the Middle-East, Ukraine, or the...

We hear about the subject of the moment from Microsoft’s Asia head of business development, Zia Zaman. We begin with the question if the world has been transformed in a comparable manner in the past year and a half as the smartphone and Appstore revolution achieved during 2007/08. Zia argues the transformation has been similar in influencing corporate strategy and productivity enhancement potential. We discuss the unparalleled cost and investment associated with operationalising and commercialising Large Language Models. Zia walks us through multiple stages of tech introduction, adoption, and value creation, with most still in the pipeline for GenAI. We...

Mitchell Presnick, a visiting fellow of practice at the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies at Harvard University, joins Kopi Time to bring much needed pragmatism to the China-US discourse. Mitch, researching the future of US- China commercial relations in the post-engagement era, is no China apologist. But his decades of doing business in China have given him a realistic view on where engagement and symbiosis make sense. We discuss Mich’s days building a business in China in the 1990s, the playbook he suggests to American businesses, and his take on US policy. Stressing that “de-risking does not mean deco...

Recorded in Jakarta, Kopi Time delves into Indonesia’s elections, domestic and foreign policy, investment environment, and economy with Kevin O'Rourke, Principle, PT Reformasi Information Services. Kevin’s team has provided independent political risk consultancy for many years, and he demonstrates his deep insights in this far-reaching conversation. We begin with the recently concluded elections, and what one can expect from President Prabowo’s administration, from balancing geopolitics to the nation’s aspiration to climb to a much higher level of income, prosperity, and welfare. Kevin provides sober-eyed assessment on the strategies announced so far. We discuss Indonesia’s democratic...

Today’s episode subject is in response to popular demand. Whether at work or at home, concerns on cybersecurity are elevated to say the least. Nicolas Reys, Partner leading Control Risks’ Digital Risks Americas and Global Threat Intelligence practices, begins by going the three kinds of cyberthreats out there—state sponsored, ransomware, and “hactivism.” We then talk about the impact of recent geopolitical developments on the cybersecurity environment. Singapore’s population and firms continue to face cyberattacks, from scams to phishing, but Nic sees substantial awareness and policy guardrails available to mitigate risks here. We talk about frontier tech like GenAI a...

Martin Mühleisen, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the state of multilateralism. He sees the recent IMF meetings marked by modest progress in securing greater funding for development and climate change, but much more remains to be done to give developing nations their requisite voice in global bodies.  On issues such as supply chain resiliency and domestic market protection, nations around the world are undertaking a variety of interventions, which may be understandable given the pandemic shock and geopolitics. Yet, they create risks for inflation, and add layers of inefficiency an...

We catch up in Washington DC with Dr. Alexis Crow, lead, Global Geopolitical Investing Practice, pwc. Recorded on the last day of the IMF-World Bank 2024 spring meetings, we go over the  key takeaways from our interactions with policy makers and analysts. From a mild upgrade in global growth forecasts to taking stock of the scarring of the pandemic, there was a sense of cautious optimism during the meetings. Ongoing geopolitical strife of course remained a shadow, and concerns were expressed on the impact of lingering high interest rates on various economies and markets. China-US tussle over economic overcapacity and i...

Henny Sender, after several decades of writing on international finance for the Finance Times and Wall Street Journal, presently runs Apsara Advisory, a New York-based consultancy. She joins Kopi Time to talk about her sense of the challenges facing the Chinese economy, especially the weakness in consumer sentiment. While recognising the wisdom behind self-reliance and trade openness, Henny flags several areas of concern, including property and stock market woes, as well as regulatory overhang. On Hong Kong, where she has lived for many years, Henny is blunt in her assessment. She sees substantial room available for the public sector...

Angela Mancini, Partner and Head of the Geopolitical Risk Analysis practice for Asia Pacific at Control Risks, returns to Kopi Time after four years. The issues haven’t changed that much in the interim—we talk about Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore’s elections and economic prospects, state of China-US friction in the context of business risks, and the domestic dynamics at play in the US. Angela provides astute insights and some prognostications as we cover an extensive ground, including the likely outcome of the US Presidential race. 

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Bert Hofman, adjunct Professor at the East Asian Institute at National University of Singapore, returns to Kopi Time to comment on the National People’s Congress of China and the direction of policy in the coming years. We also talk about the property sector crisis, ways to revive business and consumer confidence, deflation risks, green transition, trade and tech war, and industrial policy. Bert also has interesting insights on the preference of the Chinese leadership in dealing with a Biden or Trump presidency. Worth a listen. 

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We welcome back Munib Madni, CEO of Singapore-based Panarchy Partners, a fund management company with responsible investing at its core. In this chat, Munib talks about latest developments and trends in the world of climate impact investing, while pointing out a gap in the current scene. Munib sees many listed equity companies setting laudable goals to reduce emission, but lacking the “how" about achieving those goals. This is where the newly established Gigaton Coalition comes in. It is an investor-investee led expert management platform for decarbonization solutions. As the name suggests, it aims to deliver at least 1 gigaton of cum...

We explore the present state of digital payments, their impact and potential, and tech-enabled investment platforms with Caeser Sengupta, CEO and co-founder of Arta Finance. Previously, Caeser spent a number of years at Google as VP & GM of Payments & the Next Billion Users initiative. In this podcast, we begin by discussing the economic and social welfare benefits derived from the digital payments revolution of the past decade. Caeser walks us through the fundamental changes in the way business and commerce are conducted in Brazil, China, India, and elsewhere, thanks to the development in mobile payments and near-instantaneous settlements. We...

Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, a Singapore-based provider of intelligence on energy markets, returns to Kopi Time. She was with us in the early days of the podcast, when WTI futures was in negative territory, and then returned around the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Today, again, energy markets have no shortage of drama. Vandana begins by addressing various scenarios over the brewing tensions in the Red Sea, especially for shipping and oil price risk premium. She also details the perverse dynamics around Russia’s energy supplies and various unintended consequences. Beyond geopolitics, she looks at the...