The John Batchelor Show

SHOW  10-20-25
1965 GAZA POWS 
CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR

THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT THE GAZA CEASEFIRE...




FIRST HOUR

9-915
Regional Powers React to Tenuous Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Deal. Bill Roggio and Husain Haqqani discuss how the Gaza agreement is viewed regionally as a tenuous ceasefire and hostage deal, not a path to peace. Saudi Arabia was displeased, seeking a long-term Palestinian state solution. Egypt supported the quiet to prevent domestic instability and refugee influx. Conversely, Qatar and Turkey championed th...

Hamas Cracks Down on Rival Clans in Gaza Post-Ceasefire. Ahmad Sharawi and Bill Roggio discuss how following the Gaza ceasefire, Hamas cracked down on rival clans and militias, like the Dughmush clan, to reassert its dominance. Hamas labeled the Dughmush clan, known for smuggling and past criminal activity, as Israeli collaborators. Anti-Hamas groups, including former PA security forces, are vastly outnumbered and less capable than Hamas, which remains the strongest faction in Gaza and uses these executions to deter future competition.

1922 GAZA

Iran Trash-Talks Trump; Nuclear Ambitions Become More Overt. Jonathan Sayeh and Bill Roggio discuss how Iran's Supreme Leader publicly rejected Trump's appeals for negotiations, a move primarily aimed at boosting domestic morale following regional setbacks. However, a top nuclear scientist overtly claimed Iran has the capacity to build a nuclear bomb, suggesting weaponization ambitions are becoming less covert. Tehran views its regional position as a lose-lose scenario but uses the Gaza ceasefire as a critical breathing room opportunity to rearm its weakened proxies.

1870 TEHRAN

China's Economic Woes and Rare Earth Export Controls Raise Global Alarms. Elaine Dezenski discusses how the US Treasury Secretary remarked that China's worrying economic fundamentals—including high debt and youth unemployment—are leading Beijing to use tactics like rare earth export controls to undermine the global economy. China acts as a "non-market player" using subsidies and forced labor, which corrodes the free market. Experts suggest the US must acknowledge these non-market practices and push for transparency and adherence to new, strict global trade rules.

1899 CANTON (NOW GUANGZHOU)

China Dominates Ukraine's Drone Supply Chain Despite Export Controls. Jack Burnham discusses how Ukraine's survival relies on its ability to produce up to 200,000 FPV drones monthly. However, 97% of Ukrainian drone producers source primary components, including rare earths for engines and chips, from China. Despite China imposing export controls on finished drones, smaller components are circumvented and supplied to both Ukraine and Russia. Finding alternative, self-reliant supply chains, potentially through US allies like Taiwan, is crucial for Kyiv.

1917 ODESSA CIRCUS

US Pressure on Venezuela/Colombia Narco-States Splits Latin American Left. Ernesto Araújo and Alejandro Peña Esclusa discuss how the US military is ramping up pressure on narco-terrorism gangs operating out of Venezuela and Colombia, causing nervousness in the Maduro regime. Trump openly attacked Maduro's key ally, Colombian President Petro, calling him an accomplice and threatening to cut aid and raise tariffs. The Venezuelan opposition is heartened, believing Maduro's fall will expose deep drug-related corruption linking members of the São Paulo Forum across the continent.

1845 VENEZUELA

US Pressure on Venezuela/Colombia Narco-States Splits Latin American Left. Ernesto Araújo and Alejandro Peña Esclusa discuss how the US military is ramping up pressure on narco-terrorism gangs operating out of Venezuela and Colombia, causing nervousness in the Maduro regime. Trump openly attacked Maduro's key ally, Colombian President Petro, calling him an accomplice and threatening to cut aid and raise tariffs. The Venezuelan opposition is heartened, believing Maduro's fall will expose deep drug-related corruption linking members of the São Paulo Forum across the continent.
1876 BOLIVAR ENTERS CARACAS

Tomahawk Missile Threat Puts Pressure on Putin's Air Defenses. Rebecca Grant and Gordon Chang discuss how Russia is highly anxious about the possible deployment of US Tomahawk land-attack missiles to Ukraine. Tomahawks, with a 1,600-mile range, can fly low and strike over 60 Russian air bases and critical energy targets. Experts say the weapon presents an "almost unsolvable air defense problem" for Russia because Putin lacks sufficient air defense systems, like the S-400, to protect such a wide area.
1963

Houthis Maintain Threat Despite Gaza Ceasefire; New Military Chief Named. Bridget Toomey and Bill Roggio discuss how the Houthis have paused attacks in line with the Gaza ceasefire but remain capable and intent on striking Israel or the Red Sea if fighting resumes. They announced the death of strategic planner and Chief of Staff Muhammad al-Ghamari, who was killed by Israel. His replacement, Yusef al-Madani, is believed to have close ties and training with Iran. The Houthi core mission, driven by perpetual animosity toward America and Israel, remains unchanged.

1926 SANA'A

Gaza Ceasefire Interrupted by Violence; Hamas Reasserts Dominance. David Daoud and Bill Roggio discuss how the Gaza ceasefire was violated when Hamas killed Israeli soldiers, prompting Israeli retaliation to reinforce red lines without restarting the conflict entirely. Hamas is deliberately slowing the return of dead hostages to stabilize the ceasefire internationally. In Gaza, Hamas immediately began cracking down on rivals to reassert its dominance and prevent others from filling the power vacuum left by IDF withdrawals, signaling it remains the top power.

1930 CARACAS

Gaza Ceasefire Interrupted by Violence; Hamas Reasserts Dominance. David Daoud and Bill Roggio discuss how the Gaza ceasefire was violated when Hamas killed Israeli soldiers, prompting Israeli retaliation to reinforce red lines without restarting the conflict entirely. Hamas is deliberately slowing the return of dead hostages to stabilize the ceasefire internationally. In Gaza, Hamas immediately began cracking down on rivals to reassert its dominance and prevent others from filling the power vacuum left by IDF withdrawals, signaling it remains the top power.

1902 CARACAS

US-Ukraine Summit Yields No Tomahawk Commitment; Focus on Attrition. John Hardie and Bill Roggio discuss how reports suggest President Trump pressed Zelensky to agree to a ceasefire based on Russian territorial demands, though no commitment was made on providing Tomahawk missiles. Tomahawks would provide Ukraine with a highly useful long-range strike capability but would not be a "wonder weapon." With Russia holding a material advantage, Ukraine's best strategy is exhausting Russia's offensive potential by inflicting disproportionate attrition, independent of Trump's softening support.
1905 ODESSA

US-Ukraine Summit Yields No Tomahawk Commitment; Focus on Attrition. John Hardie and Bill Roggio discuss how reports suggest President Trump pressed Zelensky to agree to a ceasefire based on Russian territorial demands, though no commitment was made on providing Tomahawk missiles. Tomahawks would provide Ukraine with a highly useful long-range strike capability but would not be a "wonder weapon." With Russia holding a material advantage, Ukraine's best strategy is exhausting Russia's offensive potential by inflicting disproportionate attrition, independent of Trump's softening support.

1899 UKRAINE

China's Military Purge Signals Deep Crisis of Confidence in Xi Jinping. Charles Burton and Gordon Chang discuss how China expelled eight senior generals, signaling a severe internal crisis and lack of confidence in Xi Jinping's leadership, potentially orchestrated by his adversaries. This turmoil suggests foreign governments should interact carefully with Xi. Economically, figures show industrial production outpacing consumption, and proposals for mandated municipal consumption goals reflect a state struggling to maintain prosperity, leading to pervasive gloom among the people.
1925

China's Military Purge Signals Deep Crisis of Confidence in Xi Jinping. Charles Burton and Gordon Chang discuss how China expelled eight senior generals, signaling a severe internal crisis and lack of confidence in Xi Jinping's leadership, potentially orchestrated by his adversaries. This turmoil suggests foreign governments should interact carefully with Xi. Economically, figures show industrial production outpacing consumption, and proposals for mandated municipal consumption goals reflect a state struggling to maintain prosperity, leading to pervasive gloom among the people.
1879

Regional Powers React to Tenuous Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Deal. Bill Roggio and Husain Haqqani discuss how the Gaza agreement is viewed regionally as a tenuous ceasefire and hostage deal, not a path to peace. Saudi Arabia was displeased, seeking a long-term Palestinian state solution. Egypt supported the quiet to prevent domestic instability and refugee influx. Conversely, Qatar and Turkey championed the ceasefire because they are invested in Hamas and want its political and military structure to survive.
1898

Regional Powers React to Tenuous Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Deal. Bill Roggio and Husain Haqqani discuss how the Gaza agreement is viewed regionally as a tenuous ceasefire and hostage deal, not a path to peace. Saudi Arabia was displeased, seeking a long-term Palestinian state solution. Egypt supported the quiet to prevent domestic instability and refugee influx. Conversely, Qatar and Turkey championed the ceasefire because they are invested in Hamas and want its political and military structure to survive.
1903

Tomahawk Missiles Would Extend Ukraine's Range but Are Not a Wonder Weapon. John Hardie discusses the possibility of supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. Hardie argues that the Tomahawk would extend Ukraine's range beyond existing Western missiles and packs more power than Ukraine's domestically produced drones. It is also noted as being a more capable missile that is harder to shoot down than current Ukrainian long-range systems. Hardie supports enhancing Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities, but cautions that the Tomahawk is not a "wonder weapon" that will turn the tide of the war. Practical and stockpile considerations for the United States, as...

Hamas and Hezbollah Learn Lessons During Gaza Ceasefire. David Daoud discusses the lessons Hamas and Hezbollah are learning during the Gaza ceasefire. Hamas is adapting the Hezbollah playbook, emulating their propaganda and warfighting tactics. Hamas insists on establishing "very far-fetched" conditions before they will even discuss disarmament. Hezbollah, observing the situation, is attempting to "lay low" and rearm quietly, despite efforts by Syrians, Israelis, and the United States to interdict their weapons and financial shipments. Hezbollah calculated that remaining silent while under Israeli strikes results in fewer casualties (two to three per week) than if they retaliated (100 per week), as...

Venezuelan Writer Discusses Maduro's Potential Fall and Regional Drug Cartel Connections. Alejandro Peña Esclusa discusses the potential fall of Nicolás Maduro in Caracas and its positive transversal effect on the entire continent, particularly regarding drug cartels and compromised leadership. He asserts that all members of the São Paulo Forum are related to drugs, and information will be revealed when Maduro falls. Currently, Hugo "El Pollo" Carvajal, the former head of Venezuelan intelligence, is on trial in New York. Carvajal has already pleaded guilty to being a member of the "Cartel of the Suns" and confessed to participating in...

Chinese Communist Party Turmoil Following Removal of Seven Top Generals. Charles Burton comments on turmoil in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership following the simultaneous removal of seven top generals for corruption, reported after the gathering of the Fourth Plenum in Beijing. Burton suggests that these senior communists, potentially acting patriotically, may be representing the interests of China and the Chinese people in the face of Xi Jinping's "disastrous leadership." Xi is criticized for his handling of domestic economics and the terrible downturn in relations with the United States, which negatively impacts China. Regardless of whether this signals a successful...

US May Permit Europe to Supply Tomahawk Cruise Missiles to Kyiv. Rebecca Grant of the Lexington Institute comments on the talk that the United States may permit Europe to supply Tomahawk cruise missiles to Kyiv. Grant discusses the Tomahawk's capabilities, noting that while Ukraine uses its own drones, they have shorter range and smaller warhead size compared to weapons already present, such as ATACMS and the British Storm Shadow. Grant states that the Tomahawk is the "missile of choice." If the strategic intent is to pressure Russia through attacks on its energy infrastructure—as Ukraine has been doing—Grant believes that...

Houthis Maintain Red Sea Threat Despite Gaza Ceasefire. Bridget Toomey of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies discusses the status of the Houthis of Yemen and their barrage against Israel and Red Sea shipping during the ceasefire. Toomey notes that while everyone would like the Red Sea to return to normal, there is great concern that the Houthis continue to possess the capabilities to terrorize the area and are not deterred. Although the Houthis are choosing to be quiet at the moment because of the ceasefire in Gaza, this temporary quietude does not instill confidence in companies and countries that...

DC's Decline and the Search for a New Imperial Capital. Gaius and Germanicus debate where the new capital of the American Empire should be located, noting that Washington, D.C., is losing its usefulness. This parallels the Roman abandonment of Rome when it became indefensible and the imperial economy shifted east, leading Constantine to establish Constantinople. DC is troubled by a bypassed population and a shrinking federal workforce, partly due to the consolidation of AI data centers in Virginia. A shift in the capital would symbolize a dramatic transformation of American identity. Germanicus suggests Miami as a potential new capital...

The Oligarchic Motives Behind the "No Kings" Protest. Gaius and Germanicus, speaking from Londinium, discuss the contemporary "No Kings" protest occurring across the American Empire, noting the young people involved are protesting the outcome and subsequent actions taken following the 2024 democratic vote. While Gaius sees the protest as amateurish, Germanicus finds it rooted in deep ignorance. Germanicus emphasizes that kingship is profoundly alien to both the Roman experience (which was founded on the overthrow of kings) and the American experience, pointing out that even a Roman emperor would never call himself a king. The true American Revolution was a rebellion...

LONDINIUM 91 AD. Carthage, Gaza, and the Risk of Unhealable Imperial Wounds. Gaius and Germanicus open by reviewing recent international news, including a major ceasefire signing hosted by Mr. Trump and proposals for US-Russia talks in Budapest, moderated by Mr. Orbán. The conversation pivots to the analogy between the Roman destruction and subsequent revival of Carthage and the modern conflict in Gaza. Despite being destroyed in 146 BCE, Carthage became prosperous and essential to the Western Roman Empire's bread basket centuries later. Gaza, however, is a "wholly symbolic artifact of contention." Germanicus observes that Israel's dependence on the US to preserve it...

8. The West's 2014 Appeasement: The Failure to Respond to Crimean Annexation. Serhii Plokhy (Professor of Ukrainian History at Harvard University) focuses on the annexation of Crimea in 2014 via "brute force" and the Western response. Professor Plokhy suggests that if NATO's reaction to Crimea had been commensurate with its response to the 2022 invasion, the current large-scale war might have been avoided. Instead, the West treated the annexation as an exception, comparing it to the 1930s Anschluss of Austria, believing Putin would cease aggression after securing the Russian-majority region. This thinking was a mistake; for example, Germany continued pursuing Nord Stream 2, based on...

7. Bucharest 2008 and the Failed Bid to Prevent Russian Aggression. Serhii Plokhy (Professor of Ukrainian History at Harvard University) discusses how Vladimir Putin's powerful presidency, rooted in a manipulated super-presidential constitution, enabled him to assert the right to dictate which countries could align with the West. The April 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest was a critical turning point. Though the US, led by George W. Bush, favored inviting Ukraine and Georgia to join the alliance, Western allies, notably Germany, opposed the idea, leading to a split. The outcome—a promise of future membership with no specifics—was the "worst outcome possible." Putin used...

6. The Dictatorial Power of Putin and the Unification of Ukraine Post-2014. Serhii Plokhy (Professor of Ukrainian History at Harvard University) focuses on the unilateral nature of decision-making in the Kremlin regarding the 2014 invasion. The decision to annex Crimea and fragment Ukraine was made by Vladimir Putin and his security chiefs during an all-night meeting on February 23–24, 2014. This process confirmed that Russia operates as a dictatorship, transitioning from the hope of Russian democracy under Yeltsin to the current reality where Putin's power is rooted in the super-presidential constitution established in 1993. Putin initially gained public support through brutality in Chechnya. While Ukraine wa...

5. Western Appeasement of 2014: Crimea Annexation and the Flawed Minsk Accords. Serhii Plokhy (Professor of Ukrainian History at Harvard University) examines the Western reaction to the annexation of Crimea in February 2014, following the appearance of "little green men." Professor Plokhy asserts that had the West reacted to the Crimean annexation with the same severity as they did to the 2022 invasion, the major war might have been avoided. Instead, the collective West treated Crimea as an isolated exception, drawing a historical parallel to the 1930s Anschluss of Austria, and mistakenly believed that Putin would stop there. This flawed assumption led Germany to...

4. The 2014 Kremlin Decision and Ukrainian Unity Against Russian Imperialism. Serhii Plokhy (Professor of Ukrainian History at Harvard University) discusses the all-night Kremlin meeting on February 23–24, 2014, where Vladimir Putin and his state security chiefs unilaterally decided to annex Crimea and fragment Ukraine. This scene exemplifies modern Russia's nature as a dictatorship, where critical decisions are made by one man—Putin, a former FSB chekist—without democratic oversight. Putin's dictatorial powers are legally based on the super-presidential constitution approved in 1993, following Boris Yeltsin's actions against the parliament. Previously, Putin built credibility by being brutal during the conquest of Chechnya in 1999. A longstanding stereo...

3. US Intelligence Successes vs. Policy Failures Leading to the 2022 Invasion. Serhii Plokhy (Professor of Ukrainian History at Harvard University) details the period leading to the February 2022 invasion, where Russia positioned troops along the border, while the Biden administration publicly ruled out sending US troops or weapons to Ukraine. This policy is identified as a "colossal misjudgment" of Putin. Although US intelligence successfully reported Kremlin war plans almost in real time, hoping to deter Putin, little was done to militarily strengthen Ukraine. The prevailing Western assessment—that Kyiv would fall quickly and Ukraine would be overrun within a week—was based on a...

2. The Colossal Misjudgment: Underestimating Ukraine and Putin's Imperial Ambitions. Serhii Plokhy (Professor of Ukrainian History at Harvard University) covers the lead-up to the 2022 full-scale invasion, noting Russia's military buildup in 2021 while President Biden publicly stated that no US troops or weapons would be sent to Ukraine, which constituted a "colossal misjudgment of Putin." Despite the lack of meaningful preparatory military aid for Ukraine, US intelligence performed exceptionally well, accurately predicting the timing of the war and releasing this intelligence in real time, hoping to "shame" Putin. The expectation that Kyiv would fall within days reflected a profound misjudgment: underestimating the...

1. The Roots of the Russo-Ukrainian War: Putin's Power and the Failure of the 2008 NATO Summit. Serhii Plokhy (Professor of Ukrainian History at Harvard University) analyzes the origins of the Russo-Ukrainian War, highlighting Vladimir Putin's authority, which is derived from Russia's super-presidential constitution. This power allowed him to move toward dictating who could align with the West. The 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest proved critical: the alliance split, with the US favoring membership for Ukraine and Georgia, and Germany leading opposition. This resulted in a failure to agree, leaving Ukraine and Georgia exposed to future Russian attacks without military guarantees. Putin responded...

8. The Misreading of Russia: Ideology and the Insufficiency of Alliances The debate over whether Ukraine should join the EU or NATO fundamentally misses the core issue: Russia's unwavering ideological belief that it must dominate and control Ukraine. If Russians are driven by this revanchist, neo-imperialist ideology, they will continue to seek control regardless of Ukraine's alliances, potentially through misinformation or political interference. American administrations (including Obama, Trump, and Biden) and many Western European powers have consistently misread Russia, treating it as rational or transactional, and thus failed to take its ideological goals seriously. This lack of understanding about Russia's commitment...

7. The Brutality of Control: From Stalin's Cynicism to Putin's War The cruelty demonstrated by Russian forces stems from a historical Russian/Soviet brutality where human life is regarded as cheap. Stalin exemplified this cynicism, as shown in a 1932 letter where he discussed using severe force to prevent losing control of Ukraine. For Moscow, controlling Ukraine is crucial, and both Imperial and Putin's governments are willing to use extreme violence to subjugate the population. When Putin launched the 2022 invasion, he was isolated and surrounded by yes-men, trapped by his belief that Ukrainians were essentially Russians who would welcome Russian control. The...

6. Volodymyr Zelenskyy: The Evolution of Ukrainian National Identity Volodymyr Zelenskyy, born in 1978, represents a modern, non-ethnic definition of Ukrainian identity. Zelenskyy is a Jewish, native Russian-speaking former comedian and successful media entrepreneur who spent a substantial part of his career in Moscow. His identity showcases that being Ukrainian is now primarily a national affiliation based on commitment to the state, transcending language or ethnic background. Zelenskyy entered politics as an outsider because the old guard had failed to bring prosperity or resolve the war in Donbas and the Crimea crisis. Russian propaganda attempts to label him as a neo-Nazi, but...

5. Putin's 2021 Essay and the Road to Annexation: Myths Versus Reality Isolated during the COVID-19 pandemic, Vladimir Putin read history and published an essay in 2021 that was revelatory of his expansionist, revisionist thinking. This document, based on historical myths, asserts that Ukrainians are essentially Russians, that Ukraine has always been Russia, and that its future must be fully subordinated to Moscow. Experts often misjudged Putin, seeing him as utterly cynical and rational, failing to recognize his ideological commitment to turning these myths into reality. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 was a reaction to the Euromaidan uprising, which deposed the pro-Russian president...

4. Khrushchev, Putin's Perceptions, and the Soviet Golden Age in Ukraine The Soviet period saw Ukraine rise to crucial importance; leaders like Khrushchev and Brezhnev spent large parts of their careers in the Ukrainian Communist Party apparatus. In 1954, Khrushchev transferred Crimea from the Russian Federation to Ukraine for practical reasons, as Kyiv was better positioned to manage it than Moscow. During the 1960s, Ukraine became a critical industrial manufacturing center, producing coal, military ballistic missiles, and space-related equipment, reinforcing its centrality to the Soviet state. Vladimir Putin, born in 1953, formed his understanding of Ukraine during this relatively calm period. For his...

        3. Post-Revolution Collapse, Failed Statehood, and the Holodomor Following the collapse of the Russian and Austro-Hungarian Empires after World War I, Ukrainians sought independence. The Ukrainian People's Republic emerged from the Russian collapse as a democratic state with liberal policies. However, it quickly collapsed internally, as its bureaucrats were heavily Russified, and externally, as various Russian armies (communist, monarchist, or liberal) immediately invaded, united by the belief that Ukraine must be part of Russia. Separately, the West Ukrainian People's Republic was defeated and incorporated into Poland. Later, Stalin, fearing internal Ukrainian dissent and needing grain exports for military modernization, implemented forced colle...