Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts

Do quants ignore motivation? I tested the most famous motivation angles in football, revenge games and blowout bounce backs, against 20+ years of real NFL closing lines. One of them was legitimately profitable. Then the market found it. This is the full lifecycle of a betting edge, tested live against 20+ years of real NFL closing lines.

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📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new ep...

Sharp bettor and responsible gaming advocate Isaac Rose-Berman joins Circles Off at BetBash to break down a tennis edge hiding in plain sight. Because of the way tennis scoring works, a player who falls behind by two breaks in a set will often stop competing entirely to conserve energy for the next one, but sportsbooks don't always adjust their in-match pricing to reflect it. Isaac walks through how to spot the trigger, which players are most likely to give up a set, and how the same logic applies well beyond tennis, including a similar spot to watch for in...

In this episode of Legendary Loopholes, China joins Circles Off to break down one of the most unique player prop edges of the last decade. Starting around 2016, China built a reputation moving college football player prop lines at a major sportsbook, sometimes 60 to 80 props a week. When a second sportsbook entered the market and began scraping those openers days later, it created a two season window where China could rebet his own moved lines at their original stale price, all while getting labeled a "fish" and handed higher limits instead of getting cut off. It's a look back at...

NFL weekend chaos, Week Zero heartbreak, and plenty of drama. Aaron Donald is back — so what does that mean for the Rams and their futures? Plus, Jacobs lands on the commissioners list, a fantasy league debacle unfolds, and we investigate the very real possibility that the “49ers guy” is completely fake. We break down the brutal Hawaii beat from Week Zero, roast Knish for celebrating way too early, dive into the Ninth Circuit’s Kalshi ruling, and ask why “pros don’t want to share.” Plus: Storm Buonatony on sports media salaries, the latest GRP saga, and another edition of the Choppin...

This week on Circle Back, host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Porter, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Shipper to break down three stories shaking up the prediction markets and sports betting world. The crew dives into a New York Times report that Donald Trump Jr. privately urged a room of Republican state attorneys general to back off regulating prediction markets, arguing that state pushback was being driven by gambling companies protecting their own turf rather than genuine consumer concerns. The panel unpacks what this closed-door pitch means for the ongoing battle between state and federal oversight of the industry, and why...

This episode is presented by ProphetX. Our guest is ProphetX co-founder Jake Benzaquen — we address the relationship directly at the top of the episode.

Jake Benzaquen co-founded ProphetX eight years ago, long before "prediction market" was a phrase anyone outside finance used. In June, ProphetX became the first sports-native platform to win CFTC approval as a regulated exchange — and this conversation covers everything that came with it: the sweepstakes years, the $35 million raise, what's shipping on the product side this football season, and the affiliated market making debate that's dividing the entire industry.

Browns recap covering Deshaun Watson's postgame comments after getting booed plus the Sanders update, and Dae'Quan Wright's stunning exit from the NFL back to LSU; Ashton Jeanty's injury scare and what it means for fantasy owners; Scottie Scheffler playing through hand, foot & mouth disease at the BMW Championship and whether golf needs injury reporting; Establish The Run shutting down their pick-selling service; a separate wild stat showing MLB favorites went 15-0 in a day; the Raheem Palmer/Pam Moldanado interaction; plus Chopping Block. Drop your questions in the chat! Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Circle Back alongside Rob...

Prediction markets are having a moment of reckoning. Sharp bettors are starting to call out PM platforms for the same behavior that made traditional sportsbooks notorious: squeezing out the very winners who helped legitimize the space in the first place. From new maker fees quietly eating into sharp profits to a "pro gambler arc" meme capturing the entire cycle of boom, backlash, and burnout, this week's Circle Back digs into whether prediction markets are already repeating the mistakes of the sportsbooks they were supposed to replace.

Host Jacob Gramegna is joined live by Joey...

A post about an MIT professor's coin flip (win $125, lose $100) went viral claiming that refusing the bet was the smart move. The psychology is real. The advice is backwards. This is the difference between risk aversion as wisdom and risk aversion as a leak... and the one number from the story that proves it.

In this video, Rob breaks down why a single coin flip with a roughly 55% implied win probability in your favor still gets rejected by most people, why that instinct is completely rational at life changing stakes and completely irrational at...

NFL preseason line movement is under the microscope after a wild stretch of results: teams that have moved 1.5+ points or more on the spread this season are 0-8, and 23-51 since 2024, according to Big Al McMordie's numbers. That trend has reignited a fierce debate about whether closing line value still holds up as a betting principle, with some pointing to small sample sizes and starters entering games as the real driver behind the movement. Also on deck: reactions to Pat McAfee's surprise album release, plus the fallout from Circa CEO Derek Stevens' pointed comments questioning the legitimacy and tax...

Prediction markets and sportsbooks might look identical on the surface. Same lines, same moneylines, same spreads. But legally and structurally, they're nothing alike. In this conversation, Jacob sits down with Captain Jack Andrews to break down why prediction markets don't meet the legal definition of gambling the way sportsbooks do, walking through the "chance, consideration, and reward" test, the Wire Act's business-of-betting standard, and why the operator side, not the consumer side, is what actually matters. They also dig into the "Duck Test," the case that could eventually land in front of the Supreme Court, and why the outcome...

Rishi Bets has been posting on X since 2011 with over 35,000 posts and a following nowhere near what that volume would suggest, and it's exactly why the account works. He posts his bet sizes, his wins, and his losses in real time, no cherry-picking. Rob Pizzola sits down with Rishi for a full interview covering his case for prediction markets over traditional sportsbooks, the World Cup position that went horribly wrong and the choice to post the whole thing publicly, where the line should be on which markets can and can't exist, and a run of hot takes on the...

Rob and Jacob were on the ground at Bet Bash 2026 (August 4-7), and they're bringing back the biggest storylines from the event, including the fallout from Steve Fezzik's touting ethics seminar. Geoff missed the trip, and shares his perspective from watching it all unfold from home. The crew also dives into the latest out of the WNBA, from a player's claims of white privilege in the league to Enes Freedom and Royce White declaring for the WNBA. Plus, sportsbooks are taking an increasingly clear stance against prediction markets, and the guys break down whether it's coming from a place...

You project a running back for 80 rushing yards. The line is 72.5. Nearly eight yards clear — an easy over, right? By the end of this video, that same exact setup might have no bet at all.

Rob Pizzola walks through the full process of turning a raw projection into an actual price — not a vibe, not a gut call, a real number you can trust. Starting from a simple two-minute version anyone can use, then building layer by layer into how the market actually prices probability, why your model's mean and the market's median aren't the...

The WNBA can't get out of its own way this week. The league's official account posted — then deleted — video of Paige Bueckers and Angel Reese casually discussing a $400 All-Star Weekend bet, a clear violation of the CBA's anti-wagering rules, and it's raising real questions about how a league office lets that get anywhere near publish. Meanwhile, Seattle Storm co-owner Celeste Keaton was fined and suspended for five home games after confronting two teenage fans holding signs supporting Sophie Cunningham, adding another layer to a franchise's messy week. Elsewhere in the gambling world, sports betting influencer Manny Cortez is back in t...

Isaac Rose-Berman was one of the featured sharp bettors in Netflix's new documentary, Instadocs: The Prediction Games — and he's here to break down everything that happened behind the scenes.

In this conversation, Isaac details how he got connected to the production, what he was originally told the documentary would focus on, and how ten hours of filming got condensed into just a few minutes of screen time. He addresses the backlash to the Winnable meetup segment and whether those bettors were ever actually winning, breaks down a moment of what he calls "slightly deceptive ed...

Netflix just dropped a documentary on the prediction markets boom, and the trailer alone sparked backlash from sharp bettors and skeptics before the film even released. We break down the doc, the reaction, and what it means for the industry. Plus, LeBron James is officially a Philadelphia 76er, and we dig into the betting angle: how the Sixers' title odds shifted, the sheer volume of money traded on his next-team market, and what it says about his legacy. We also cover an Iowa bettor suing a major sportsbook for $14 million after they voided his bets on a pricing error...

This week on Circle Back, the crew dives into the Miami Heat's YouTube slip-up, a scheduled livestream titled "LeBron James Introductory Press Conference" for July 27th that got posted, then quickly deleted. The team says it was a mistake made while preparing for a possible signing, but that hasn't stopped the theories. Was this a genuine accident, or a deliberate leak designed to move the needle on prediction markets before anything is even official?

From there, the conversation shifts to prediction markets more broadly, after a platform CEO publicly admitted a majority of users...

Rob Pizzola sits down solo for a candid state-of-the-channel monologue, no guest, no educational breakdown, just an honest look at where Circles Off is and how it got here. Rob talks through the origins of the channel with Johnny from Betstamp, the plateau that led to the pivot into Circle Back, and the business reality behind The Hammer that most viewers never see, including years of building the company without taking a salary. He also gets into what actually drives him to keep making educational content, why bad betting advice in the space gets under his skin, and why...

Spain won the World Cup final 1-0 over Argentina in extra time, with Ferran Torres scoring the winner after Argentina played the entire match down a man following a red card and failed to register a shot until the 117th minute. The match was overshadowed by a chaotic post-game and halftime spectacle, including Donald Trump's involvement in the festivities. In golf, Ryan Fox won the Open Championship, but the bigger story was the cheating controversy surrounding Bryson DeChambeau, whose penalty situation dominated golf media coverage. And in sports betting media, Twitter has banned over 40 scam handicapper accounts in a...

Argentina stunned England with a late 2-1 comeback to set up a World Cup final showdown with Spain, and the reaction is pouring in. A viral take from China (@Chinamaniac) claiming connections matter more than skill or modeling ability in sports betting has sharp bettors pushing back, with many pointing to prediction markets as an accessible alternative. And a wild story is breaking about a White House staffer who's reportedly made over $100,000 betting on prediction markets tied to the president's own speeches, using inside knowledge of what was coming before it was said.

Jacob...

Rob Pizzola reacts live to Chris "Flup" Dierkes' viral Substack post detailing a multi-million dollar downswing — and what it actually takes to trust your process through it. Flup, one of the sharpest bettors in the game and a Circle Back regular, wrote candidly about adverse selection, the difference between ego and confidence, spotting real edge vs. variance, closing line value, tilt, and why "just a skill issue" isn't the full story on getting limited. Rob goes section by section, agreeing in some spots, pushing back hard in others — especially on the debate over grinding through a downswing vs. stepping away...

Conor McGregor's UFC return lasted just over a minute before a devastating knee injury ended his comeback against Max Holloway — and now the conspiracy theories are flying. Did McGregor know he was hurt before he ever stepped in the cage? The crew breaks down what it means for his career, the UFC's future plans, and how the betting markets reacted to one of the wildest outcomes in recent memory.

Plus, Argentina's win over Switzerland in the World Cup quarterfinals is still generating controversy after a contentious VAR review led to a second yellow card an...

Circle Back is back with another live episode, breaking down the biggest stories and chaos from Gambling Twitter this week. Host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Porter, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Joey Knish as the crew dives into the wild finish to the World Cup: Team USA's elimination at the hands of Belgium amid controversy over President Trump's call to FIFA president Gianni Infantino, Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal's exit from the tournament and the prediction market frenzy over whether he shed a tear, Conor McGregor's massive return to the Octagon against Max Holloway at UFC 329, and the growing allegations that...

Most people are using AI as a betting oracle, and it's costing them money. Rob Pizzola breaks down the right way to actually use AI for sports betting — not by asking it who wins tonight's games, but by treating it as a research assistant, a coder, and a data scientist that does the labor while you bring the judgment. Rob walks through a real example from the World Cup, where he built an expected goals model with AI, ran a Poisson distribution across dozens of markets, and found a spot where his numbers diverged from the market by 4% — including exac...

The FIFA World Cup is in absolute chaos after reports that Florian Balogun’s red card suspension was reversed ahead of USA vs Belgium following a high-profile intervention involving Donald Trump, sparking major backlash over corruption concerns, competitive integrity, and whether governing bodies are being influenced at the highest level. The crew also breaks down a separate controversy involving Spotify requesting removal of its branding from prediction-market-linked ranking manipulation allegations, raising fresh questions about how betting-adjacent markets could be impacting real-world platforms. On top of that, England’s dramatic 3–2 win over Mexico in one of the most chaotic matches of the...

Live on this week’s Circle Back, the crew breaks down one of the biggest cross-sport news days of the year. The United States have advanced in the FIFA World Cup, but the win is overshadowed after a controversial red card to Florian Balogun that will now see him miss a massive matchup against Belgium. The panel discusses what the decision means on the field — and what it could mean for the betting markets moving forward.

The biggest story of the day comes out of the NBA, where Malik Beasley has been indicted on fede...

Most bettors think their edge comes from projection models, numbers, or opinions they’ve built on their own work. But there’s one thing many of them ignore completely: the market.

In this video, Rob Pizzola breaks down why ignoring line movement and market information is one of the most expensive mistakes a bettor can make — not because the market is always right, but because it constantly provides free information that can improve your timing, your price, and your decision-making.

From understanding when to bet early vs late, to recogn...

On today's Circle Back, we break down the controversy surrounding Matt Miller after years of allegations resurfaced following his recent GoFundMe campaign, discuss Canada's dramatic 1-0 stoppage-time win over South Africa to advance at the World Cup, look at the latest World Cup odds including the United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and debate the NFL tampering questions surrounding Adam Schefter, Robert Kraft, A.J. Brown and Diana Russini.

Jacob Gramegna is joined by Rob Pizzola, Geoff Fienberg and Jason Cooper for another episode of Circle Back on the Circles Off YouTube channel. The...

Today on Circle Back LIVE, we’re diving into the biggest gambling conversations happening right now — from World Cup betting angles and market reactions to the growing debate between prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks. The panel breaks down where sharp bettors are finding edges, what’s driving the latest sportsbook vs prediction market discussion, and the “hidden” sources of betting information that most people overlook. We also react to the biggest stories and discourse shaping the betting world this week, including what actually matters versus what’s just noise.

Circle Back LIVE streams every Thursday at...

Every time a new sport gets going or a new account starts popping up on social media, the same question starts flooding in: should I trust this person’s record?

Rob Pizzola breaks down the exact checklist he uses when evaluating whether a sports bettor is actually legit or just riding variance and good timing. From win-loss records that don’t tell the full story, to missing tracking metrics like closing line value, timing, and market access, this video exposes the red flags most people completely ignore.

Most bettors are...

The Wall Street Journal investigation into a major prediction market platform alleging offshore promotional tactics, misleading creator campaigns, and staged “wins” sparks debate about how far marketing manipulation may be going in the space. The crew also reacts to a blockbuster NHL trade sending Brady Tkachuk to the Florida Panthers, and breaks down Cabo Verde’s stunning World Cup run after securing another major result against Uruguay as they push toward a historic knockout stage appearance in their debut tournament.

Jacob Gramegna is joined by Rob Pizzola, Geoff Fienberg, and Jason Cooper on Circle Back...

Prediction markets are putting real pressure on traditional sportsbooks as reduced-vig pricing continues to reshape how odds are being offered across the industry. The panel breaks down how books are still hanging onto outdated pricing structures—like heavy two-way lines and inefficient World Cup markets—while prediction markets push tighter spreads and more competitive pricing models. The conversation dives into what that actually means for bettors, including why small pricing edges (even down to cent-level differences in straddles) compound into a massive long-term advantage, and whether sportsbooks are being forced to adapt or risk being outpaced entirely. The group also...

In this episode of Circles Off, host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics) for a unique tier list breakdown that ranks sports betting personalities based on something rarely discussed in betting debates: their educational backgrounds — and how useful those degrees actually are in becoming a winning bettor.

The discussion runs through a full S to D tier system, evaluating a wide range of fields including applied statistics, economics, business analytics, engineering, finance, psychology, law, and more. Rather than judging individuals, the focus is on the strengths and weaknesses of each discipline when ap...

The UFC 250 DM scandal involving Daniel Cormier and Eric Trump sits at the center of the episode after alleged Instagram messages surfaced suggesting requests for UFC betting intel ahead of fights at the White House, with screenshots posted and then deleted as both sides deny authenticity and claim hacking, fueling debate over whether the story is real or fabricated. The crew also reacts to the Knicks winning the NBA championship and what that result means for how the season is being interpreted, along with World Cup criticism focused on hydration breaks and concerns that the tournament has felt underwhelming...

We break down one of the most unbelievable NBA Finals games in recent memory as the Knicks storm back from a 29-point deficit to beat the Spurs in Game 4 and take a 3-1 series lead. We go through how the comeback unfolded, the key turning points, and the wild betting implications around the game, including massive live movement on ProphetX that saw the Knicks priced as high as 30-1 mid-game.

We also dive into the ongoing Jeff Nadu situation following the $1 betting discussion that’s been circulating online, including his response and the broader ba...

Circles Off sits down with Andrew Gombas for a deep dive into one of the most complete career paths in modern sports betting.

Andrew has done nearly every job in the industry — from pick selling, to running betting groups, to working inside PPH-style operations, to becoming a full-time bettor focused heavily on MMA. In this conversation with Rob Pizzola, he breaks down what each side of the industry actually looks like from the inside and how it all connects.

We also get into the evolution of sports betting groups, wh...

Jeff Nadu faces backlash after a betting screenshot from a Novig post goes viral, with viewers zooming in on what appears to be a $1.06 wager and sparking criticism over how he presents himself as a sports bettor. The situation escalates as the screenshot spreads online, fueling debate around credibility, unit sizing, and perception in public-facing betting content. Meanwhile, a $35K crypto dispute involving a university student raises questions around platform rules, interpretation of written terms, and accountability in high-stakes markets. The episode also reacts to the latest storylines from the NBA and NHL Finals.

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These New Betting Laws are already getting pushback after Massachusetts introduced a rule requiring sportsbooks to notify bettors when their accounts are limited and provide a reason. On paper, it’s framed as transparency for consumers, but early reactions from bettors suggest it doesn’t actually explain much—just a polished way of saying winning action isn’t welcome. The debate has quickly turned into whether this is real protection for bettors or just another layer of messaging that changes nothing about how limits are applied.

Also on today’s show, the ongoing Haralabob vs Matt Ka...

Circles Off sits down with sharp bettor Thon Misser (@ThonMisser) for a deep dive into how he actually approaches modern betting markets, from live wagering to prediction markets and everything in between.

Thon has quietly built a reputation for finding edges in places most bettors ignore — including niche sports like Japanese baseball, reality TV markets, and newer prediction market platforms. In this conversation with Rob Pizzola, he breaks down how he thinks about betting today, where his edge comes from, and why the betting landscape is changing faster than most people realize.