Hidden Forces

Demetri Kofinas speaks with financial historian and investor Russell Napier about his "Practical History of Financial Markets" online course, which is provided in conjunction with Edinburgh Business School.

Hidden Forces premium subscribers can sign up using their subscriber email + code "HF50" for a generous 50% DISCOUNT. Genius members can access the course for an even more generous discount of 75%. Sign up today at libraryofmistakes.com/course.

The course runs in three formats: a ~14-hour online version; a two-and-a-half-day in-person version in London (capped at about 30 people); and a university version for mostly post-grad students. This is...

Episode 447 is the tenth installment in the Hundred Year Pivot podcast series. In it, Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams speak with Peter Atwater, a recognized expert on the impact of confidence and mood on individual and group decision-making. Peter's work has been instrumental not only in helping his clients, students, and readers understand how people make decisions under conditions of chaos and uncertainty, but also in showing how to use those insights to gain a competitive advantage.

The three begin their conversation by mapping out Peter's Confidence Quadrant and using it to explain how individuals and crowds...

In Episode 446 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with geopolitical analyst and forecaster Kamran Bokhari about Trump's 20-point Gaza peace plan and the new security order taking shape in the Middle East.

Kamran first appeared on Hidden Forces in the days following the October 7th attacks to discuss the wider war unfolding between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, and how Hamas's attacks could serve as a catalyst for the remaking of the modern Middle East. In his subsequent appearances, he has provided critical context for understanding U.S., Israeli, and Iranian strategic aims and limitations, as...

Episode 445 is the ninth installment in the Hundred Year Pivot podcast series. In it, Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams speak with Roger Mitchell, an entrepreneur and writer whose essay "The Answer Was Here All the Time," published in Grant Williams's 2025 compendium, explores faith, meaning, and the search for moral grounding in a contemporary West that feels increasingly unmoored and in epistemic freefall.

The conversation begins with a diagnosis of the cultural and spiritual malaise that seems to have taken hold of Western societies: the fraying of the social contract, the "boomer blues," as Roger Mitchell calls them...

In Episode 444 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Dan Wang, author of Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future, about his pioneering new framework that compares the U.S. and China not along ideological lines or modes of governance, but by state capacity and the propensity to build.

According to Dan Wang, China is an "engineering state," focused on building big projects and diffusing technologies across its economy, while America is a "lawyerly society" that has become proficient at protecting what it has and obstructing progress in areas that are vital for its long-term prosperity. Kofinas...

In Episode 443 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with former investment banker turned global strategist Viktor Shvets, whose books The Great Rupture and The Twilight Before the Storm provide an audaciously comprehensive and compelling framework for understanding the forces shaping our world. These include technology and finance, amplified by climate change, demographics, and a series of socioeconomic and geopolitical shocks that have created the once-in-a-century superstorm now enveloping Western democracies.

Viktor and Demetri spend the first hour of this episode exploring Shvets' central critique of neoliberalism and why he believes that much of the current crisis stems...

In Episode 442 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi. Kurt is the chairman and co-founder of The Asia Group and served as the United States Deputy Secretary of State in the Joe Biden administration and as the Indo-Pacific Coordinator from 2021 to 2024. Rush also served under the previous administration in his capacity as the Deputy Senior Director for China and Taiwan Affairs on the National Security Council and is the author of the extremely influential book, "The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order."

Kofinas, Doshi, and Campbell spend the first...

In Episode 441 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, about the profound transformations underway in the global economy driven by America's transition away from being the world's primary insurance provider for international security to its exploiter-in-chief.

In a recently published Foreign Affairs essay titled "The New Economic Geography: Who Profits in a Post-American World?" Adam compares America's role in the post-World War II era to that of an insurance provider, underwriting global security by protecting international shipping lanes, providing deep and liquid capital markets, and enforcing international...

In Episode 440 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Paul Kingsnorth, a novelist, essayist, and former environmental activist who first came on many people's radars during the Covid-19 pandemic with the publication of his viral three-part series "The Vaccine Moment." His current work explores the intersection of technology, culture, and the divine. In his latest book, Against the Machine, Kingsnorth examines how our increasingly mechanized way of seeing and relating to the world—and to ourselves—has contributed to the death of Western culture, and what it would take to reclaim our humanity and save our souls.

Paul...

In Episode 439 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Douglas Rushkoff, a pioneering media theorist, best-selling author, and leading voice on how digital technologies shape societies, economies, and cultures.

Rushkoff and Kofinas spend the first hour of their conversation tracing the arc of Douglas' career, from his upbringing in a communal 1960s neighborhood in Queens and early work in theater to his role as a cultural and media critic chronicling the rise of the early internet. They explore how the internet's rave-like collaborative ethos and anarchic counterculture gradually gave way in the 1990s and early 2000s to...

In Episode 438 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Charles Calomiris, former Chief Economist at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, about his forthcoming paper "How Stablecoins Will Transform Banking," which is based on a presentation he delivered at the Hoover Institution's annual monetary policy conference this past May.

Demetri and Charles spend the first hour of their conversation laying out what stablecoins are and why Calomiris believes they are poised to transform our standard units of account through a revolution in real-time payments and a wholesale reinvention of the banking system, monetary policy, and...

In Episode 437 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Marvin Barth, founder of Thematic Markets and former Chief Economist for International Affairs at the U.S. Treasury, who previously served at the Federal Reserve and the Bank for International Settlements and has led global macro and FX strategy on both the sell side and the buy side.

Marvin Barth and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation unpacking his concepts of "localization," "being is believing," and "global entropy," and how these thematic frameworks can help us understand changes in growth, inflation expectations, interest rates, the underperformance...

In Episode 436 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with economist, policy adviser, and investor Sony Kapoor about why developed world demographics, debt, and political sclerosis will crush forward returns for investors who fail to rebalance their portfolios for the new investment paradigm.

Kapoor and Kofinas spend the first hour of their conversation unpacking the thesis explored by Sony in two of his papers: "Winter Is Coming" and "The Case for a Great Rebalancing" in which he argues that global capital has been increasingly misallocated due to factors such as the growth of passive indexation, maladaptive benchmarking, and...

Episode 435 is the eighth episode in the Hundred Year Pivot podcast series. In it, Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams speak with leading realist scholar Jonathan Kirshner about how eroding cultural norms, weakened political guardrails, deepening polarization, and the collapse of shared narratives and belief structures are leading to a break-down in the American-led order, paving the way for a new moneyed elite to seize power in Washington.

Their discussion begins with a deep dive into the realist tradition: its origins, how it differs from other ideological schools, its various interpretations, and why classical realists grant primacy to...

In Episode 434 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Bruno Maçães, a geopolitical strategist and the former Minister of European Affairs for Portugal, whose latest book titled "World Builders" explores the intersection of technology and geopolitics.

In the first hour, Bruno puts forward a radical new theory of geopolitics and technology that no longer views the world as a neutral battlefield between great powers to control territory and resources, but rather as a contest in world building that will afford the most powerful states back-doors into all aspects of our lives that they can use to al...

In Episode 433 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Sam Freedman, a former senior policy advisor in the UK's Department for Education, political analyst, and the author of "Failed State," a timely exploration of the deep-rooted dysfunction within British governance and how to fix it.

In their conversation, Sam Freedman examines the origins and nature of the current crisis, focusing on issues such as extreme centralization, the dominance of executive power, and the corrosive impact of modern media dynamics on politics and policymaking. He also takes listeners through several critical turning points in recent British political history...

In Episode 432 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Group, where he advises large institutional investors on asset allocation, economic forecasting, and quantitative modeling informed by historical patterns and structural economic analysis.

Vincent Deluard and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation exploring Deluard's macroeconomic framework and the key structural forces that he believes are shaping the emergence of a new macro regime of fiscal dominance, including shifting demographics, politically driven inflation, geopolitical fragmentation, and the decline of institutional trust. The two discuss his provocative thesis that...

Episode 431 is the seventh episode in the Hundred Year Pivot podcast series. In it, Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams speak with Edward Chancellor, a financial historian, award-winning journalist, and the author of "Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation."

Eddie, Grant, and Demetri discuss how excessively interventionist monetary policies and widespread speculative excesses have prolonged the final phase of a "Debt Supercycle," whose bursting will likely usher in a new era of financial repression, marked by increased capital controls, currency crises, heightened geopolitical risk, and social turmoil.

Subscribe to our premium content—including ou...

In Episode 430 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Vance Spencer and Michael Anderson. Mike and Vance are the founders of Framework Ventures, one of the largest venture capital firms in crypto and one of the earliest and biggest investors in Decentralized Finance (DeFi).

Kofinas, Spencer, and Anderson spend the first hour surveying the current state of crypto—how the space has evolved since Michael and Vance were last on the podcast and how institutional participation in Bitcoin and Ethereum has expanded through ETFs and corporate treasury strategies. They also unpack the latest legislative developments, including the Ge...

In Episode 429 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Weston Nakamura, a Tokyo-based financial analyst and the creator of "Across the Spread," a market analysis and information service that identifies key market developments from the Asia-Pacific trading session, exploring their impact on equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities across global markets.

Weston recently spoke with members of the Hidden Forces Genius community, helping them make sense of the Japanese elections that took place over the weekend. He explained what the results mean for what he calls "the world's most dangerous market" and why a new governing coalition made...

In Episode 428 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Joseph Wang, Chief Investment Officer at Monetary Macro and the founder of Fed Guy, an educational media platform that provides financial market analysis to investors and policymakers informed by a deep understanding of monetary mechanics and public policy.

Joseph and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation discussing Joseph's monetary and public policy frameworks, how these frameworks help us make sense of the White House's trade policy, and the downstream consequences for financial markets and the broader economy that stem from these observations.

The second...

In Episode 427 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Le Shrub, the author of the Shrubstack Substack who in his previous life was part of a famous team known for putting on "The Big Short" during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

This recording is the result of a phone call Demetri made to Le Shrub to catch up on markets and life after returning from a recent trip to Italy where he spent time with some guests of the podcast discussing the effect that rapid technological changes are having on the evolution of human societies, culture, politics, and...

In Episode 426 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Stephen Walt, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, about American grand strategy, the Trump Doctrine of Coercive Primacy, and the implications of Washington's new Gunboat Diplomacy in the Middle East.

Stephen is a prominent member of the realist school in international relations. He's been a long-time critic of American adventurism and an advocate for a more restrained approach to U.S. foreign policy.

In the first hour, Stephen provides his assessment of recent events in the Middle East, how...

In Episode 425 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with geopolitical and intelligence analyst Dmitri Alperovitch about the new security dynamics and economic opportunities that arise from America's and Israel's attacks on Iran, the risks of strategic overreach, and whether U.S. actions do more to compel or deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

In the first hour, Alperovitch scrutinizes Israel's decision to initiate a series of targeted strikes against Iran's nuclear program, including their decision to assassinate key nuclear scientists and senior members of the IRGC. We discuss America's choice to participate in this campaign, Iran's response...

In Episode 424 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Kamran Bokhari, Senior Director at the New Lines Institute for Strategy & Policy, who has served in the U.S. State Department and as a Senior Consultant with the World Bank.

Bokhari first appeared on the podcast shortly after the October 7th attacks to discuss the violence ignited by Hamas, the nature and scope of Iranian involvement, and how various regional actors exploited the growing disorder to their advantage, as the Biden administration struggled to stabilize a region on the brink of another major war.

In subsequent...

In Episode 423 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Joseph Torigian, an expert on the politics of authoritarian regimes and the Chinese Communist Party, with a particular focus on elite power struggles, civil-military relations, and grand strategy. Torigian is also the author of a widely discussed new book titled "The Party's Interests Come First," a political biography and historical analysis of Xi Zhongxun, the father of Xi Jinping,  the leader of China and the head of the Chinese Communist Party.

In the first hour, Torigian and Kofinas trace the evolution, internal contradictions, and complex dynamics of political p...

Episode 422 is the sixth episode in the Hundred Year Pivot podcast series. In it, Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams speak with Lawrence Fossi, about the recent fallout between President Donald Trump and his biggest political booster, Elon Musk.

This is a critical and sober exploration of the political and budgetary challenges facing the country. It spares no criticisms of either Trump or Musk and is not meant for politically sensitive or easily offended partisans.

In it, we discuss Musk's failed efforts to address the budget, his support for the formation of a new third party...

In Episode 421 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Ian Fletcher, one of America's foremost experts on industrial policy, about the problems with free trade and how to revitalize the U.S. economy.

Ian and Demetri spend the first hour of the episode laying the foundation for the argument Fletcher and his co-author, Marc Fasteau, present in their book Industrial Policy for the United States: Winning the Competition for Good Jobs and High-Value Industries. This portion includes a comprehensive critique of free-market economics and a systematic exploration of the tools that can be deployed to build critical...

In Episode 420 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Kyle Chan—an expert on the Chinese economy and China's industrial policy—about why he believes China is poised to dominate high-end technology and manufacturing, and why factories worldwide will reorganize their supply chains with China at the center, as the world's preeminent technological and economic superpower.

Kyle and Demetri spend the first hour dissecting China's industrial policy and dispelling misconceptions about the historical foundations of economic prosperity. Their discussion highlights the reciprocal interactions among the state, financial capitalism, and the market economy—dynamics that have driven the techno...

Episode 419 is the fifth episode in the Hundred Year Pivot podcast series. In it, Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams speak with fmr. Chief Economist for the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Dr. Charles Calomiris about America's economic emergency and what our response to it should be once conditions push the country into a full-blown political crisis at some point over the next few years.

In this incredibly timely conversation, Charles Calomiris explains what the recent moves in gold, bitcoin, and long-term bond yields suggest about where we are on the path toward financial repression as...

In Episode 418 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas sits down with award-winning journalist Karen Hao to discuss Empire of AI — her inside account of how OpenAI evolved from an idealistic, safety-first nonprofit into one of the world's most valuable private companies in its race to conquer the future.

This conversation takes you inside that transformation—from the heady idealism of OpenAI's founding, through the billion-dollar Microsoft deal and the 2023 boardroom coup, to the unresolved questions that hang over Silicon Valley and Washington alike about the private concentration of power in the age of artificial intelligence and the nature of t...

Episode 417 is the fourth episode in the Hundred Year Pivot podcast series. In it, Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams speak with some of the smartest and most plugged-in people they know to help them navigate the once-in-a-century economic, political, and geopolitical reordering that is currently underway.

In this episode Kofinas and Williams speak with political-economist Pippa Malmgren about the wide-range of socio-political, economic, and technological challenges facing societies today. They discuss:

The narrative collapse stemming from a loss of faith and trust in political leaders and institutions

The informational overwhelm and confusion that...

In Episode 416 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Financial Times correspondent Patrick McGee about the integral role Apple played in helping to build China's advanced manufacturing ecosystem—and the geopolitical interdependencies and national security risks now baked into that relationship.

McGee's book "Apple in China" tells two stories. First, it chronicles Apple's ascent from being nearly bankrupt in the mid‑1990s to becoming the world's most valuable company within just 15 years. Second, it traces China's historic transformation from an underdeveloped economy with Third‑World cost structures and armies of unskilled laborers to the world's largest economy (by pur...

Episode 415 is the third episode in the Hundred Year Pivot podcast series. In it, Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams speak with some of the smartest and most plugged-in people they know to help them navigate the once-in-a-century economic, political, and geopolitical reordering that is currently underway.

In this episode Kofinas and Williams speak with economic historian, author of "The Solid Ground Newsletter" and Keeper of the Library of Mistakes, Russell Napier about the end of the economic, monetary, and global trading & security order that has been the largest single driver of global growth over the last thirty...

In Episode 414 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Mark Spindel about monetizing government policies and how an improved understanding of their effect on markets can enhance the value and performance of your portfolio.

Demetri and Mark spend the episode's first hour evaluating Trump's first 100 days in office, assessing his policy objectives and his effectiveness (or ineffectiveness) in turning those policies into tangible economic and political victories for his administration. They discuss:

Tariff-induced supply chain disruptions

Price inflation

Higher interest rates

Lower asset prices

A falling U...

Episode 413 is the second episode in the Hundred Year Pivot podcast series. In it, Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams speak with some of the smartest and most plugged-in people they know to help them navigate the once-in-a-century economic, political, and geopolitical reordering that is currently underway.

In this episode Kofinas and Williams speak with historian and author of "The Fourth Turning" Neil Howe about his and his co-author William Strauss' seminal generational theory framework. They assess how well it has tracked Trump's first 100 days in office, how well it explains the upheavals we are experiencing in both...

In Episode 412 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with financial journalist and economic historian, Paul Blustein about the U.S. Dollar's historical resiliency in the face of international shocks and crises, and whether Dollar hegemony can survive the breakdown of the international capital and trading system.

In the first hour, Kofinas and Blustein trace how the U.S. dollar became the de facto currency for global trade, savings, and investment and what recent policy shifts in Washington—and how they have been perceived abroad—may mean for the future value and status of the Greenback.

The...

In Episode 411 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Shehzad Qazi of China Beige Book about the impact Trump's China tariffs are having on the U.S. and Chinese economies and prospects for a grand bargain.

Demetri and Shehzad discuss:

The material impact that the trade war has had thus far on both economies

The companies and sectors most likely to be impacted, as well as those best positioned to weather the storm

The respective performance of each country's currency and stock market

Explanations for the punctuated sell-off in...

In Episode 410 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with investors Paulo Macro and Le Shrub about the consequences of a breakdown in the international capital and trading system—and what this means for markets and investor portfolios.

The first hour revisits last year's discussion on "EM-ification," the breakdown of the rules-based global order, and the urgent search for a new safe asset in a world of deteriorating fiscal balance sheets. Together, Demetri, Paulo, and Le Shrub map out what investors should be paying attention to in the year ahead.

In the second hour, the conversation tu...

Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams have teamed up to launch "The One Hundred Year Pivot," a new podcast series that explores the once-in-a-century economic, political, and geopolitical reordering currently underway. These transformational changes demand that we develop new maps and investment frameworks to help us navigate the challenges ahead.

Over the course of the series, Grant and Demetri will be speaking with the smartest and most plugged-in people they know to help us chart a path through this gathering storm and position ourselves, our organizations, our families, and our portfolios for the changes to come.

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