China Perspectives

Harry Hu, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, discusses China's recent efforts to manage LGFV risks, including LGFV reclassification and debt substitution plans, along with local government debt trends.

Laura Zhai, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, discusses the impact of US tariff hikes on China's commodity sectors.

Amid rapidly changing US trade policies, Fitch analysts, Alex Muscatelli and Janice Chong, discuss the macroeconomic and corporate level impacts on China from rising US tariffs.

A fireside chat on Fitch’s 2025 credit outlook for China’s sovereign, corporate, local government and banking sectors with Jeremy Zook, Ying Wang, Samuel Kwok and Grace Wu.
(00:00) - Introduction (00:47) - Macro and Sovereign Outlook (03:33) - Impact of US Tariffs on China Corporates (04:55) - Property sector outlook (05:53) - Impact of Policy Simulus on Corporates (07:10) - Local Government Finance Outlook (08:36) - Hidden Debt Substitution Policy (10:40) - LGFV Sector Risks (12:40) - Impact of Rate Cuts on Banks (15:24) - Asset Quality Outlook (17:21) - Conclusion

Jinny Yan, Chief China Economist at ICBC Standard Bank, discusses her outlook for China’s economy in 2025 and the government’s policy measures and priorities, particularly its focus on de-risking, diversifying and enhancing domestic capacity.

Jing Yang, Director of Fitch Ratings, discusses key credit trends of China’s solar PV manufacturing industry.  

David Wang, Professor at the Virginia Tech Dept. of Economics and former Credit Suisse Head of APAC (ex-Japan)Economics, joins us to discuss deflationary risks in the Chinese economy and whether the recent policy stimulus can address these pressures.

Elaine Xu, Director in Fitch’s Financial Institutions team, provides an update on how Chinese banks are managing the challenges from economic headwinds, the property correction, and LGFV debt renegotiations.

Samuel Kwok, Head of Fitch’s APAC International Public Finance shares his views on China’s local government and LGFV debt problem.

Shuncheng Zhang, Associate Director of Fitch’s China Corporates Team based in Shanghai, shares China’s housing demand forecast from 2024 to 2040.

Lan Wang, Senior Director in Fitch’s Credit Policy Group, joins for a wide-ranging discussion on China credit developments, including recent rating actions, growth prospects, property and banking sector outlooks, and recent EU tariffs on Chinese EVs.

Henry Hao, Principal Economist at CRU, discusses structural shifts of China’s role in the global commodity market.

Wei Yu, Director of Fitch Ratings, discusses key credit trends of China’s coal mining industry.

Dr. Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy at the Hinrich Foundation, discusses China-ASEAN trade ties focusing on key policy issues, supply chain diversification trends, and the outlook for the trade relationship amid rising geopolitical risks.

Katie Chen, Senior Director of Fitch Ratings, discusses key credit trends of China’s Big Four national asset management companies.  

Jeremy Zook and Ying Wang, co-hosts of China Perspectives podcast, hold a fireside chat about China’s 2024 credit outlook. 

Flora Zhu, Director in Fitch’s Corporate Research team in Beijing discusses shifting FDI and trade patterns by Chinese corporates in the context of global supply chain diversification.

Tyran Kam, Senior Director and Head of Fitch’s China Property team based in Hong Kong, shares outlook on the Chinese property market. 

Jingwei Jia, Associate Director at Sustainable Fitch, discusses the latest developments in China’s rapidly evolving onshore green bond market and the impact of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s national carbon market.

Jeremy Zook, Fitch Ratings’ lead sovereign analyst for China, is joining China Perspectives as a co-host. Prior to this role, he was the lead analyst for several countries in APAC. Jeremy’s first show is coming up soon. Stay tuned.

Charles Zhang, Director of Fitch’s China industrial corporates team, shares his insights on the risks and opportunities for Chinese construction companies amid the country’s economic slowdown, including structural challenges and transition plans.

Jing Yang, Director of Fitch’s China Research Initiatives based in Shanghai, shares insight on China’s booming electric vehicles industry and Chinese automakers’ overseas diversification trends.  

James MacDonald, Senior Director and Head of China Research at Savills based in Shanghai, shares first-hand experience and observations on the country’s residential, commercial, and industrial real estate markets. Through his professional lens as an 18-year industry veteran, James discusses the key structural changes in China’s real estate market and the broader economy. 

Alvin Cheng, Head of Fixed Income, Portfolio Manager at Fidelity International’s China WOFE, shares his views on China’s economic prospects in 2023 as well as risks and opportunities in the world’s second largest bond market. 

Alvin Cheng, Head of Fixed Income, Portfolio Manager at Fidelity International’s China WOFE, shares his views on China’s economic prospects in 2023 as well as risks and opportunities in the world’s second largest bond market.

Jenny Huang, Deputy Head of China Research Initiatives at Fitch Ratings, shares her views on China’s consumption recovery prospects, including stimulus for growth, constraints, consumer behaviour changes, and implications for related companies.

Gene Ma, Head of China Research at the Institute of International Finance, shares his views on China’s 2023 macro outlook, including prospects for growth, consumption, inflation, and the top priorities for economic policymakers this year.

Dominik Peschel, head of the Economics Unit at the Asian Development Bank’s Resident Mission in Beijing, discusses the bank’s recent working paper on China’s long-term growth prospects and their suggested reforms to increase potential growth.

Colin Mansfield, Sector Head for US Gaming, Lodging & Leisure at Fitch Ratings, positions Macao’s elusive gaming recovery within a broader global industry backdrop, and sheds light on the recent tenders for Macao’s new gaming concessions.

Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China, gives her latest views on the Chinese economy, with a focus on the property and labour markets, as well as the ongoing macro spillovers from the “zero Covid” policy.

Jenny Huang, a senior director leading Fitch Ratings’ China corporate research team, discusses the key motivations and methods the Chinese authorities employ to support companies in financial distress, drawing from recent case studies.

Long Chen, co-founder and partner at Plenum, weighs in on the “dynamic zero Covid” debate and shares his views on how the Omicron outbreak and global spillovers from the war in Ukraine are impacting China’s economy and policy outlook.

Tara Joseph, President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong, shares some parting reflections on Hong Kong’s evolving business climate, rule of law, Sino-US tensions, and the future of the territory as a global financial hub.

Adrian Cheng, Fitch Ratings’ Co-Head of Greater China Property, shares his latest thoughts on China’s residential sales and construction trends, and highlights the continued funding and liquidity challenges faced by the nation’s developers.

The Honourable Paul Chan Mo-po, Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region discusses fiscal policy, housing, geopolitics, and his near-term outlook for the economy and cross-border travel amid a recent omicron outbreak.

Grace Wu, Fitch’s Head of Greater China Banks, discusses the impact of China’s ongoing property sector stress on the financial system, and gives her top-down view on how the balance of financial risks stands today compared with several years ago.

Jonathan Anderson, co-founder of Emerging Advisors Group, discusses the importance of the property sector to China’s economy, whether the nation is facing a property “bubble”, and potential lessons from the ongoing China Evergrande saga.

Charles Li, former Chief Executive of HKEX, discusses the importance of SMEs to China’s economy, how to enhance their access to financing, and the nation’s evolving regulatory environment in the context of his new venture, Micro Connect.

Julien Martin, General Manager for Bond Connect, offers insights into China’s onshore bond market trends, the trajectory of capital market reforms, and the origins and key innovations behind the Bond Connect scheme.

Sebastian Eckardt, the World Bank’s Lead Economist for China, Mongolia, and Korea, discusses the bank’s latest China Economic Update, with insights into the growth and inflation outlook, financial risks, income inequality, and poverty alleviation.