Fixed Interests

Japan’s institutions are among the world’s largest fixed-income investors. Helen Wong speaks with Monsur Hussain about rising Japanese bond yields, shifting allocations, foreign credit and private markets, and implications for global market.

How could Brazil’s election reshape its economy and credit outlook? Todd Martinez and Richard Francis discuss the runoff, fiscal challenges, growth prospects, and what a Bolsonaro victory could mean for debt, markets, and ratings.

How do telecom, media, and technology bankruptcies affect creditor recoveries? Terry Gallagher and Josh Clark discuss declining first-lien recoveries, repeat restructurings, valuation pressures, and the factors driving outcomes across the TMT sector.

How much can the UK economy grow over the next five years? Aymeric Poizot speaks with Jessica Hinds about the factors shaping the UK's growth potential, from investment and productivity to demographics and AI's potential impact.

As life insurers expand their relationships with affiliated alternative investment managers, what are the credit implications? Deborah Murnin, Jamie Tucker, and Zach Shutts discuss governance, liquidity, transparency, and investment risk.

How exposed are APAC banks and insurers to private credit? Helen Wong speaks with Tania Gold and Jeff Liew about direct and indirect risks, portfolio trends, rating implications, and why private credit remains an asset class to watch closely.

Fitch Ratings senior directors Manuel Arrive and Brian Schneider share their 2027 global reinsurance outlook and Monte Carlo Summit takeaways, covering softening pricing, alternative capital, AI & data center risks, profitability and market trends.

Fixed Interests explores U.S. and European bank performance in 2026. Cynthia Chan, Olivia Perney, and Julie Solar discuss profitability, diverging outlooks, RWA density gaps, and how Basel III reforms could reshape regional banking.

Fitch's Deborah Murnin and Wunmi Adekanmbi explore how AI may impact media subsectors. While AI isn't expected to drive negative rating actions near term, it adds uncertainty. 

Fixed Interests examines Fitch's approach to rating financial guarantors in EMEA. Sabine Bauer and Inal Kishmariya discuss this niche insurance sector and key rating drivers: diversification, governance, capital adequacy and shareholder support.

Alex Muscatelli from Fitch Ratings joins Aymeric Poizot to unpack a risk scenario on a major AI equity and CapEx correction: 35% share price plunge, US recession, global stagnation, and rate cuts. Not Fitch's base case, but a key risk worth watching.

Explore how the Middle East crisis and rising jet fuel prices are hitting EMEA airlines. Fitch analyst Raman Singla joins Andrei Sandu to discuss Q2 profit declines, why low-cost carriers face greater risk, and the outlook if the conflict drags on.

With long-dated yields at multi-decade highs across major markets, Fitch's Ed Parker examines the fiscal, inflation and supply forces at play, and which sovereigns face the greatest rating risk as debt burdens climb and refinancing costs rise.

Transatlantic view of leveraged finance from Fitch Ratings. Terry Gallagher, Brendan Hoelmer and Leonie Dackham explore the macro backdrop, refinancing waves and rising default forecasts across US and European loan and high-yield markets into Q3

Scott Zuchorski and Monsur Hussain follow the money, exploring how insurers, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and family offices are financing infrastructure, and why credit ratings are the connective tissue driving global capital flows.

One asset, three routes to capital. In part one, Scott Zuchorski and Monsur Hussain unpack Fitch's latest report on how corporate, project, and structured finance are converging to meet a US$106 trillion global infrastructure need by 2040 and beyond.

Fitch's Terry Gallagher, Josh Clark, and John Kempf examine the gaming, leisure, lodging, and restaurant sector. They discuss sector bankruptcies, maturity, alternative financing, favorable demographics, and strong first-lien creditor recoveries.

Fitch's Sovereign team explores Argentina's turning point. Following its upgrade to 'B-', analysts Shelly Shetty and Chris Dychala discuss the Milei administration's fiscal and reform gains, vulnerabilities, and what to watch ahead of 2027 elections.

Christian Scarafia and Robert Mazzuoli unpack the European Commission's July push to boost EU banking competitiveness, exploring cross-border consolidation, capital fungibility, Basel III lending reforms, deposit protection changes, and key omissions.

Fitch's Olu Sonola joins Rachel Willis Gutierrez to unpack the US Consumer Health Pulse. Despite slowing spending, energy-driven inflation, and flat real income, consumers remain resilient buoyed by strong balance sheets and a solid labor market.

The US and Japan intervened to support the yen for the first time in nearly 30 years, but did it fix anything? Jessica Hinds joins Fitch's Fixed Interests to explain why the yen's weakness is now a story about fiscal credibility, real yields and BOJ

Fitch experts unpack Q2's shift as global upgrades outpaced downgrades for the first time since 2024. Explore what's driving credit resilience, regional trends, and the 2026 outlook for corporates across sectors.

What does AI disruption means for service businesses. Rob Galtman and Jonathan Reid join Deborah Murnin on where risk is most immediate, why exposure is so uneven, and which structural protections matter most across 200 corporates.

Let's unpack Fitch's July US and European distressed and default monitors. Brendan Hoelmer and Leonie Dackham join Terry Gallagher on why falling default rates mask rising forward-looking stress and a building default pipeline.

How will USMCA's annual review cycles impact Mexico and Canada. Todd Martinez and Josh Grundleger join Shelly Shetty to explore key pressure points, sticking points on autos, and what a good deal looks like. Part two of two.

What the USMCA's move to annual review cycles means for North America. Todd Martinez and Josh Grundleger join Shelly Shetty to unpack what changed on July 1st, Fitch's baseline scenario, and the risks ahead. Part one of two.

Fitch analysts examine how a developing El Niño could impact corporate credit risk across Asia Pacific. We explore Vietnam's hydropower vulnerability, resilience in India and China, and why palm oil producers may face a mixed credit outlook.

Why did post-pandemic inflation last so long? Fitch's Chief Economist Brian Coulton reveals how corporate margins, not wages, fueled persistence, and assesses the risk of a repeat after the 2026 oil shock, with key implications for the Fed and ECB.

Yields under pressure. Leverage on the rise. Fitch dives into the growing use of off-balance-sheet financing among Business Development Companies (BDCs) and what it signals for credit risk ahead.

How could El Niño affect Latin America's power sector? Fitch Ratings analysts Saverio Minervini, Marcela Araujo and Juan David Medellin discuss rising power prices, hydropower pressures and credit risks across Brazil, Colombia and Panama.  

Aymeric Poizot and Monsur Hussain discuss how innovation is reshaping credit markets. Considering fund finance, securitisation and corporate back leverage, they explore these new structures and the implications for credit risk assessment.

Rachel Willis Gutierrez and Duncan Innes-Ker discuss how El Niño acts as a risk amplifier for weaker sovereigns, intensifying pressures on growth, inflation, public finances, and trade. Listen now to this episode.

Sabin Saveluc and Redmond Ramsdale explore the resilience of GCC banks amid the US-Iran conflict and ceasefire, discussing sector outlook, rating actions, asset quality, funding, liquidity, and sovereign support packages shaping the Middle East banking sector.

Fitch's Cynthia Chan & Christian Scarafia reveal why bank forecasts refuse to crack, from higher-for-longer rates to leaner operations. And the surprise standouts? Italy and Switzerland are pulling ahead. Listen now.

In the second part of their conversation, host Aymeric Poizot and Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton turn to the market fallout from the latest FOMC meeting and what the Fed's reset means over the longer term.

They unpack the bear-flattening of the Treasury curve, the role of falling oil prices and stretched equity valuations, and how a smaller Fed balance sheet, rising supply, and a higher term premium could keep yields elevated. The discussion closes with the credit implications of a "higher for longer” environment from leveraged borrowers and government debt to the pressures facing the housing ma...

Aymeric Poizot, Global Head of Investor Development at Fitch Ratings, is joined by Chief Economist Brian Coulton to examine what Kevin Warsh's arrival as Fed Chair means for monetary policy and markets.

They explore Warsh's more hawkish tone, his focus on Fed communications and balance sheet reduction, and his push to restore credibility on inflation. The conversation also breaks down the latest rate decision and what falling oil prices and persistent inflation could mean for the odds of a hike later this year and the impact on Treasury yields and credit markets.

Ed Parker and Charles Seville outline Fitch’s updated Global Economic Outlook, covering how the impact of the US‑Iran war and resulting oil shock are driving growth and inflation forecast revisions, along with the impact of ongoing AI investment.

The ongoing US-Iran conflict has created a complex and mixed picture for Canada, a major oil exporter navigating both the benefits and costs of elevated energy prices. In this episode of Fixed Interests, Joshua Grundleger and Mark Sadeghian discuss Fitch's updated oil price forecasts and what the shock means for Canada's sovereign credit profile, energy sector, and provincial finances. The conversation examines diverging outcomes across the country, from Alberta's fiscal windfall to the headwinds facing Ontario and Quebec, and considers whether the Carney government's infrastructure and regulatory reforms could meaningfully shift Canada's long-term energy growth trajectory.

Hungary’s April elections delivered a decisive victory for the opposition Tisza party, reshaping the country’s political landscape and outlook for policy reform. In this episode of Fixed Interests, Erich Arispe Morales, Head of Eastern Europe Sovereigns, speaks with Malgorzata Krzywicka, Hungary’s primary analyst, about the election outcome and its implications for the country’s sovereign credit profile. The discussion places Hungary within the context of broader Central and Eastern Europe election cycles, examining how political change has influenced fiscal policy, EU relations, growth prospects, and rating trajectories across the region.

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AI‑driven investment in data centers, compute capacity, and supporting infrastructure continues apace, raising important questions about future monetization and credit sustainability. In this episode of Fixed Interests, Justin Patrie, Head of Credit Commentary and Research, is joined by Alen Lin, Senior Director in Corporate Ratings, and Alex Bumazhny, Group Credit Officer, to examine recent developments around AI’s credit implications. The episode looks at whether current data center and compute capex is supported by future revenue potential, how value and cash flows may evolve across the AI value chain, and where overinvestment and disruption risks may emerge