Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg

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Is AI going to ruin everything? What kind of AI-related dangers should we be most worried about? What do good institutions look like? Should designing better institutions be a major priority for modern civilizations? What are the various ways institutions decay? How much should we blame social media for the current state of our institutions? Under what conditions, if any, should the flow of information be regulated? What are some of the lesser-known kinds of AI disalignment? What actions should we take in light of the lack of consensus about AI?

What defines a cult? Is there such a thing as a good cult? Do Clearer Thinking's tools actually help people? Why does Clearer Thinking share its tools for free for everyone to use? How legitimate is the research Clearer Thinking does to create its tools? Is that research too reliant on self-report? Do Clearer Thinking's tools focus too much on the average person and fail to account for significant variance among people? Should AI companies be required to create and release text watermarking tools? Should smart, knowledgeable people speak out more? Would the average person think (without priming or...

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NOTE: The video version of this conversation is available on YouTube: https://youtu.be/hWNknrc23Fo

In light of the replication crisis, should social scientists try to replicate every major finding in the field's history? Why is human memory so faulty? And since human memory is so faulty, why do we take eyewitness testimony in legal contexts so seriously? How different are people's experiences of the world? What are the various failure modes in social science research? How much progress have the social sciences made implementing reforms and applying more...

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What does it mean to bring your "A-game" to relationships? What is emotional "fitness"? What forces do relationships need to balance to remain stable and healthy? Are we attracted to a particular brand of heartbreak? What are "original attachment wounds"? Can Dark Triad traits be tamed? What emergent properties do relationships exhibit? What nourishes a relationship? When should relationships end? Why might people choose to maintain abusive relationships? How can trauma victims regain their sense of agency? What is self-care really about?

As a cutting-edge Relationship Coach, Annie Lalla maps...

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Do we still have a lot to learn from ancient Greco-Roman philosophies? What is telos? What is ataraxia? What is "dark" Stoicism? What is the "resilient asshole" problem? What is (or what has) value according to Stoicism? What are the similarities and differences between Stoicism and Buddhism? Why might someone prefer a life "philosophy" over a set of life "hacks"? What is good? And how do you know? How could you know if you potentially adopted the wrong life philosophy? What value can modern humans find in Stoicism, Epicureanism, Pyrrhonism, and Cyrenaicism?<...

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In times of such extreme political polarization, where can we find common ground? Should we require disclosure of AI authorship? Should AI companies be required to provide fingerprinting tools that can identify when something has been generated by one of their models? Should movie theaters be required to report when movies actually start? Should members of Congress be prohibited from insider trading? Should gerrymandering be outlawed? Should there be age limits on political office? Should we provide free school meals nation-wide? What roadblocks stand in the way of people being able to...

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What do westerners misunderstand about "tribal" cultures? How does justice in very small communities differ from justice in large nation-states? Why do some cultures have bride prices (i.e., groom's family pays bride's family) and others have dowries (i.e., bride's family pays groom's family)? How do cultures differ with respect to the body parts they sexualize? How many cultures across time have used psychedelics? Do all religions make moral demands? How do religions change as the people who practice them grow in number? How strong is the link between religious belief...

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Can you tell which is the real Spencer and which is his AI clone? How irrational are people really? What do most people misunderstand about psychology? What are the best tools to use to accomplish various societal goals? How good are we at predicting the future? Why do we have such a hard time overcoming our tribal instincts in politics? How many people get into politics for narcissistic reasons? What systems could be put in place to help prevent government corruption? Do we have free will? Are numbers real? Is beauty real...

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How big is the current mental health crisis? What's causing it? What do we know about the age distribution of people suffering from mental health issues right now? Is the crisis just that more people are suffering from anxiety and depression, or is there an increase in other disorders as well? Why are psychiatrists seemingly very picky about which insurance policies they'll accept? What percent of hospital psychiatric patients are repeat visitors? What would an ideal mental health system look like? How effective are addiction detox programs? Why might suicide prevention programs...

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Why is misinformation a never-ending problem? What fraction of misinformation is intentionally manipulative? What's the difference between bullshit and other kinds of misinformation? What are the various kinds of beliefs we hold? How do the political left and right (at least in the US) differ in their production and consumption of misinformation? Have any conspiracy theories ever been proven right? Did Jeffrey Epstein kill himself? Why do people listen to Alex Jones? Was Nikola Tesla a fraud? Why does any of this matter? What do we know about UAPs / UFOs? What is...

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What is obsessive compulsive personality disorder (OCPD), and how does it compare to obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD)? Why is it relatively prevalent and yet also relatively unheard-of? What can people with OCPD do well? What does OCPD feel like from the inside? Which fictional characters might have OCPD? How do people with OCPD typically engage with religion? How can you have better relationships with people in your life who have OCPD? What should you do if you think you or someone you know might have OCPD? What are some treatments for it...

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Why do nonprofits often ignore the simplest, most obvious solutions for helping the world? Why do some problems get a lot of attention while others — often of equal or greater importance — go completely unaddressed? Why is behavior change so hard? When should or shouldn't NGOs collaborate with governments? Why are deworming effects not as immediately noticeable as might be expected? What sorts of incentive structures surround charities? How can NGOs and nonprofits gain the financial flexibility necessary to make better strategic bets and more principled decisions? What's more important for drawing in dono...

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How bad are things in US education? Why does it seem that educational progress has stagnated? What parts of the US education system should be reformed? Is it better to group students by skill level or by age? How useful are standardized tests? Why is there so commonly a disconnect between what cognitive science tells us about how people learn and the practices that are actually implemented in classrooms? How much do we know about what it's like in schools today? What did the No Child Left Behind act get wrong? What...

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Is the bar for what counts as new knowledge higher in psychology than in other scientific fields? Why did the field of psychology formally start centuries later than other scientific fields? Why is it so hard to make progress in psychology? How useful are social science "mega-studies"? What actually helps people stick to habits? What do scientists often get wrong about the philosophy of science? What have social scientists learned so far from the replication crisis? And how does that compare to what they should perhaps have been learning from it? Why...

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Why might being the victim of sexual abuse increase the likelihood of being re-victimized? What warning signs, if any, might an abuser exhibit before becoming abusive? How might trauma differ when caused by someone the victim knows versus by someone who is a stranger to them? Why might victims choose to continue interacting with their abusers after receiving abuse? Why might trauma even cause a person to bond with their abuser? What is "affirmative" consent? Which states in the US recognize affirmative consent as a meaningful legal concept? What forms of refusal...

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Why might being the victim of sexual abuse increase the likelihood of being re-victimized? What warning signs, if any, might an abuser exhibit before becoming abusive? How might trauma differ when caused by someone the victim knows versus by someone who is a stranger to them? Why might victims choose to continue interacting with their abusers after receiving abuse? Why might trauma even cause a person to bond with their abuser? What is "affirmative" consent? Which states in the US recognize affirmative consent as a meaningful legal concept? What forms of refusal...

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How important is story-telling for changing the world? What counts as a story? How closely should persuasive stories conform to the formula of "the hero's journey"? How much time do we spend on average thinking about stories? How can raw data be shaped into a story that's both true and compelling? What are some good examples of stories that have changed the world for the better? When, if ever, do scare tactics work? Can a bad guy with a story only be stopped by a good guy with a story? Why are...

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What are the main causes of problems in romantic relationships? What are the behaviors and patterns that lead to healthy relationships? What is the price of a good relationship? Are dark triad traits (i.e., psychopathy / sociopathy, Narcissism, and Machiavellianism) treatable? What is outcome resistance? What is process resistance? How can a person overcome their own resistance to healthy change? When are labels useful? Do thoughts lead to emotions? Or do emotions lead to thoughts? Or do they both lead to each other? How should psychological trauma be treated? What are the...

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What life skills do most people fail to learn before adulthood? Why does this failure occur? What should constructive disagreement look like? When might it be impossible to overcome a disagreement? How can you appease your (or someone else's) "elephant"? What do many people get wrong about dating? How much exploration is necessary to figure out what kind of person is compatible with you romantically? Which basic financial skills do many adults lack? What are the best ways to invest? What is your personal "superpower"? Should schools strive to make kids well-rounded...

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What do most people get wrong about happiness? Why doesn't the happiness resulting from success last longer? Is it easier to "get ahead" today than it was 100 years ago? How are we trapped by our ideas of happiness? Does individualism help or hurt happiness? Where do hyper-individualistic messages come from (especially in the US)? How have those messages changed over the past several decades? How can people better open themselves up to help from friends and family? What is the "critical positivity ratio"? How might our understandings of "positive" and "negative" be...

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How were decisions made about which treatments to trust before the advent of "evidence-based" medicine? How strong are biological arguments for or against various treatments? When did the Evidence-Based Medicine (EBM) movement begin? How did the EBM movement overcome initial resistance among medical professionals? What resources do doctors have at their disposals to find up-to-date information about treatment efficacies? Why is the pharmaceutical industry allowed such influence over information about treatments? What is the GRADE approach to EBM? What does EBM have to say about the role of patient preferences and values...

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Is it useful to vote against a majority when you might lose political or social capital for doing so? What are the various perspectives on the US / China AI race? How close is the competition? How has AI been used in Ukraine? Should we work towards a global ban of autonomous weapons? And if so, how should we define "autonomous"? Is there any potential for the US and China to cooperate on AI? To what extent do government officials — especially senior policymakers — worry about AI? Which particular worries are on their minds? To w...

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What are the best things to do to help someone achieve their goals? What kind of person should see a personal coach? And when should they do so? What makes for a good personal coach? How do you know which coaches are legit given that they aren't certified like counselors? Can everyone benefit from meeting with a coach? How can you harness modernity to live the kind of life you want? In what ways do people treat themselves as resources? What are the most common causes of burnout? How high should our...

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What are the biggest mistakes people make when investing? What's the best thing to do with extra savings? How can we overcome emotional biases that might negatively impact our investment strategies? What is "hyperbolic discounting"? How can you know when to pull your money out of an investment? How can journaling help with investing? Is it irrational to invest only in companies based in your country? What's the optimal mix of stocks and bonds? Are short-term bonds better than long-term bonds, or vice versa? How can you tell genuine growth from too...

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What does it take to start a new city, especially one designed to be a special economic zone (SEZ)? What are the advantages and disadvantages to having a private company as manager of a city? Should governments be profit-maximizing? Can people choose to live in one of the Zonas de Empleo y Desarrollo Económico (ZEDE) cities in Honduras while also opting out of its specific government services? What are some legitimate reasons governments should regulate businesses? Are medicines produced in SEZs safe? How do ZEDE investors make money? To what extent c...

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What is Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT)? What are the "cognitive" and "behavioral" parts of CBT? What are some of its most common techniques? What are "negative core beliefs"? What does CBT have to say about situations in which problems come from a person's environment rather than from within the person's mind? What makes a particular belief or behavior "good"? How do we know how effective various psychotherapeutic treatments are? How much can we rely on meta-analyses about psychotherapy treatments? Is CBT the most evidence-based psychotherapy treatment? What are CBT's main competitors? Is...

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What is Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD)? Why is it so stigmatized relative to other mental health issues? What does it mean to be the "favorite person" of someone with BPD? Can people with BPD have multiple favorite persons, or no favorite person at all? What is "splitting"? Why are people with BPD more prone to engage in risky, reckless, or impulsive behaviors? How might BPD overlap with the "dark triad" personality traits (i.e., machiavellianism, narcissism, and psychopathy)? Is BPD more common among women? How should we treat people who may not...

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Is the placebo effect bullshit? Are "open-label" placebos just as effective as "closed-label" placebos? How do placebos differ from dummies? Is the placebo effect just a kind of scientific-sounding "woo"? How does social priming differ from word priming? Why is it important in research to have both placebo and no-treatment groups? What is the Hawthorne effect? What is the John Henry effect? When is it useful to express effect sizes using Cohen's d? If there's not a placebo effect, then what's really going on in cases where it seems like there is...

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What kinds of things really distort our ability to think clearly when making decisions? What is "psychological distance"? What is construal level theory? How can we intentionally increase or decrease psychological distance for ourselves or others who are making decisions? What are "decisionscapes"? When giving toddlers choices, we often artificially limit the number of available options to help smooth out the decision process and avoid decision paralysis. When might the imposition of this kind of artificial limitation be useful for adult decision-makers? What should we do with the productivity gains we've reaped...

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Which of the world's hardest problems can be solved merely by gathering more data? Why are social problems harder to solve than biological problems? How should power between business owners and unions be balanced? Why do people so often misinterpret research results — sometimes even to the point of concluding exactly the opposite of what the results show? What heuristics should people use when reading research papers? How are culture wars affecting the reliability of research? Should there be any limits on what can be researched and published? When might left-leaning researchers actually en...

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What do schools do well and not so well? In what contexts is memorization most effective? What's the value in teaching something that will probably be forgotten by most students after graduation? How should educators balance time spent on building skills versus acquiring knowledge? Why do students so often fail to apply the skills learned in school (e.g., fractions, solving for unknown quantities, etc.) to problems encountered in everyday life? What is "transfer of learning"? What is educational "directness"? How can we learn languages more efficiently? How does review compare to...

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Are narcissists born with narcissism? What are the core components of narcissism? To what extent do narcissists have their own personality that isn't shaped by what others think of them? Are narcissists overly confident or overly insecure? How are grandiosity and vulnerability related? Why might narcissists be offended by compliments? Would narcissists relinquish their narcissism if given the opportunity? Do most narcissists know that they suffer from Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD)? How long of a questionnaire is needed to diagnose NPD? In what professions are narcissists overly represented? How should people deal...

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What have we learned about UBI from recent, large-scale studies? What factors contribute to differential attrition in (especially long-term) studies? How much does it cost to run large UBI studies? Where else in the world have major UBI studies been run? What's the difference between "guaranteed income" and UBI? How do people in cash transfer studies tend to spend their money? Should restrictions be placed on what people can spend their study money on? How long does it take to see various effects of UBI or guaranteed income on a large scale...

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What interesting things can we learn by studying pre-humans? How many different species of pre-humans were there? Why is there only a single species of human now? If pre-human species wiped each other out for various reasons, why might the ancestors of chimps and bonobos (who are very closely related to humans) have been spared? What roles did language, racism / speciesism, and disease likely play in the shaping of the human evolutionary tree? How is AI development like and unlike human development? What can we learn about AI development from human development...

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Why are sex workers treated so badly in the US? What effects do licensing requirements have on sex workers and their customers? How do sex worker rights connect with privacy rights more broadly? In what philosophical principles ought sex worker rights (and their customers' rights) to be grounded? How do sex work laws affect people who aren't sex workers? Is "whore-phobia" the root of all misogyny? Is misogyny built into human nature, or is it learned? How does testicle size affect evolutionary fitness? Must religions necessarily have rules and norms about sexual...

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When does productivity become toxic? To which part(s) of ourselves or our lives should we anchor our self-worth? How can we connect our productivity to our values? How does self-esteem intersect with productivity? When should we listen to our bodies and intuitions, and when should we ignore them and perhaps even do the opposite? How should achievements affect our sense of self-worth? What are some techniques for emotional regulation? What is the "narrator mind" useful for? What are some good coping mechanisms? How ambitious should we be? How can we figure...

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Are the terms "psychopath" and "sociopath" interchangeable? Are people suffering from Antisocial Personality Disorder (ASPD) naturally violent? Are people usually born with these psychopathy, sociopathy, ASPD, or other similar personality disorders; or are they caused by environmental factors? To what extent do sociopaths have a sense of self or relatively fixed personality? Are sociopaths easily manipulated? How do shame and guilt differ? What is "gray rage"? To what extent do the primary "dark" personality traits (narcissism, psychopathy, Machiavellianism, and sadism) overlap? From an evolutionary perspective, why might these traits appear in a...

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How much more robust have the social sciences become since the beginnings of the replication crisis? What fraction of replication failures indicate that the original result was a false positive? What do we know with relative certainty about human nature? How much of a difference is there between how people behave in a lab setting and how they behave out in the world? Why has there been such a breakdown of trust in the sciences over the past few decades? How can scientists better communicate uncertainty in their findings to the public...

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Why do we suffer? Would we still suffer if we got rid of all craving and aversion? Is pain the same thing as suffering? How is suffering connected to the concept of self? Should people in horrible situations attempt to remove themselves from those environments or try to improve their plights in any way; or should they merely free themselves from suffering by releasing their "craving" for well-being and their "aversion" to misery? Why would the dissolution of the self free someone from suffering? Are we identical to our bodies and/or...

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What are the differences between tactics and strategies? Is the speed of growth of a company the main thing business school graduates should consider when trying to figure out where to launch their careers? How much optimism or pessimism should strategies include? How can we gain footholds for change in systems that are very strongly self-reinforcing? Is it possible to change a system's side effects without changing its purpose? What are the differences between strategies and visions? Is it better to follow a map or a compass? If you buy a lottery...