The Fraser of Allander Institute Podcast

Our next episode of Key Figures features the esteemed David Bell, Professor of Economics at the University of Stirling and a core original member of the Fraser of Allander Institute.

In the third installment of our Key Figures series, Mairi Spowage speaks to Kim Swales and Peter McGregor: two economists who were director of the Fraser of Allander Institute at various times, and instrumental to our longstanding work in CG modelling.

In the second episode of our Key Figures interview series, we talk to Elizabeth Ashcroft, one of the original editors of our long-running Economic Commentaries. We cover her life, the origins of the Institute, and her thoughts on the rapidly changing economic landscape in Scotland.

Clarification 15/9/25 -  Victor Bulmer-Thomas did not resign as Director of Chatham House in 2003 over the Iraq war. He left at the end of 2006, although he did author a paper on Blair's foreign policy that was very critical of the invasion. 

Participants

Dr Hannah Randolph - Fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute

Dr João Sousa - Deputy Director at the Fraser of Allander Institute

Time stamps

(0:40) What pressures does the chancellor face ahead of the autumn budget statement?

(8:30) Prospects for improved economic conditions

(11:00) Potential policy changes in the Autumn Budget statement

(17:00) Impact on the Scottish budget process

(00:25) Price changes after removal

(01:37) Reasoning behind peak fares and removal  

(03:23) Learning from the peak fares removal pilot

(06:00) What policies might shift commuters away from cars?  

(08:47) Alternatives to rail travel

(10:57) Policy costs and potential for financial neutrality 

Participants

Dr Hannah Randolph - Fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute

Allison Catalano - Fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute and the Scottish Health Equity Research Unit (SHERU)

Time stamps

(00:06) Introduction

(01:20) What is the LFS and what are the issues it's been having? 

(6:57) Alternative data sources for understanding the labour market

(18:23) Misunderstandings around what's happened in the post-pandemic labour market

(19:39) ONS changes to improve the quality of the LFS

(23:40) How poor employment statistics may impact local decision-making

(27:49) I...

(00:29) What is GERS and why is it important?

(10:19) What do the latest figures tell us and what factors are driving changes?

(14:23) What were our thoughts on the Scottish Government response?

(25:51) How likely is GERS to feature in the upcoming general election?

04:27 - What does the UK innovation survey say about innovation in Scotland?

07:10 - Is there really a decline in innovation across Scotland? 

12:00 - Is business investment in Scotland really less than rest of UK?

15:44 - Product innovation versus process innovation

21:00 - How do skills shortages affect innovation?

24: 00 - How does company size affect innovation?

27:04 - How can businesses collaborate with universities to address skills development?

29:00 - Where is the policy environment in Scotland when it comes to innovation?

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(00:38) What is the Scottish Business Monitor?

(02:44) What business types are represented and what is the sample size?

(04:28) Has poor business sentiment from Q1 2025 recovered in Q2?

(06:50) What changes have we seen based on the changes to employer national insurance contributions?

(08:37) What does business sentiment look like for 2026?

(11:26) What factors are contributing to current business sentiment?

Timestamps

(00:23) What is congestion charging?

(02:59) Exemptions

(04:49) Similarities with LEZs

(07:10) Timing of charges

(10:26) Use of discounts & revenue

(14:54) Clyde Tunnel Toll

(16:26) Edinburgh’s failed proposal

(20:13) Other UK charges

(21:43) Effectiveness of congestion charges

(23:37) Glasgow’s public transport system

(25:57) Public attitudes

Timestamps: 

(01:55) The Social Policy Association (SPA) and the East Asian Social Policy Research Network (EASP)

(04:15) The Hospitality Sector – Serving the Future Project 

(07:30) Learning Disabilities & Employment 

(10:30) Child Poverty 

(14:40) Housing & Health 

(19:10) Labour One Year in Office: Tax Policy & Wealth Taxes? 

(24:30) Key Takeaways from the Conference 

Yesterday, the Scottish Government published their medium-term financial strategy, which kicks off the Scottish Budget process. Hannah Randolph is joined by FAI Director Mairi Spowage to share their reactions. (2:08) What does the medium-term financial strategy do? (8:47) Financial strategy across spending areas (18:04) Public sector reform (25:06) Looking ahead to the Scottish spending review

PARTICIPANTS

Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde 

Ben Cooper, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

TIME STAMPS

(0:20) History of the FAI

(5:30) FAI conference plans

(10:15) Parliamentary reception plans

(11:40) Where to find more information about the FAI 50th

Introduction

What are investors saying? 03:43

Why is policy certainty so important? 10:27

Energy companies versus energy investors: 13:05

Where should government focus on? 17:52

Why the grid is so important? 24:42

Importance of effective carbon pricing regime: 31:04

Policy Responses from UK and Scottish Government: 42:11

PARTICIPANTS 

Ben Cooper, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde 

Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde 

Joao Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde 

TIMESTAMPS 

(00:30) A summary of the spending review announcements 

(08:00) What did we hear on capital investment? 

(11:50) What were the announcements on day-to-day expenditure? 

(21:14) What are the implications on Scotland from the spending review? 

(26:50) What has changed for the Medium Term Financial Strategy? 

(35:30) How important is the spending r...

Timestamps:

(0:00) Introduction

(00:38) What do the latest child poverty statistics say?

(01:49) What was JRF's reaction to the stats?

(03:09) Can we see an impact from Scottish Child Payment?

(06:09) How do we achieve the 2030 targets from here?

(09:24) Modelling of options to meet 2030 targets

(12:57) What about cost?

(19:27) How might UK Government proposed benefits changes impact poverty levels?

(23:30) How will the changes impact Scotland's finances?

(25:41) What happens in Scotland if the work capability assessment is replaced by the PIP assessment?

(28:20) What's next...

PARTICIPANTS

Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde 

Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

TIME STAMPS

(0:30) Economic conditions leading up to the spring statement

(16:15) What announcements were made and how do they affect Scotland?

(21:10) OBR estimates for policy costs and savings

(30:25) What fiscal policy changes might we expect later this year?

(37:40) What are the UK's prospects for growth? 

PARTICIPANTS

Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute
Angela Mitchell, Senior Partner for Scotland & Northern Ireland, Deloitte
Lesley McEwan, Director in Deloitte's Infrastructure and Capital Programme Team, Deloitte

TIMESTAMPS

(10:50 ) What purposes could public land be put to?
(14:10) Taking the demand to the supply – data centres
(15:40) Grid infrastructure issues must still be tackled
(16:40) Digital opportunities
(19:23) Threats and opportunities from AI, including smart cities
(22:28) What can Scotland learn from other cities around the world
(24:30) A key role for research and academia
(25:23) Power hungry AI
(26:50) Us...

PARTICIPANTS

Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

TIME STAMPS

(0:25) What is the Barnett formula and what does it do?

(2:50) What came before the Barnett formula and how was it different?

(9:25) Has the Barnett formula resulted in convergence on spending per person across the UK nations?

(12:40) Limits set by the Barnett formula and their impact on spending options for devolved governments

(16:50) Governance framework - can d...

Scottish Health Equity Research Unit Website

Scottish Health Equity Research Unit BlueSky

(0:34) Introduction 

(01:15) Origins of SHERU

(04:42) Historical context of health inequalities research 

(8:40) Impact and Implementation 

(16:50) Interactions between Policy and Research

(20:42) Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches 

(27:36) Goals and Aims of SHERU

Intro/Outro by Ian Macartney

PARTICIPANTS

Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Jack Williamson. Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

TIMESTAMPS

(00:3o) BOE: interest rates and the outlook for growth 

(07:00) Budget process and developments 

(10:20) Two child limit mitigation 

(16:45) Q4 2024 Scottish Business Monitor

(20:10) Upcoming fiscal events and releases

Timestamps 

(00:36) Inflation data and MPC expectations

(07:45) GDP growth

(11:00) Scottish Budget Report developments

(20:08) Other fiscal news in 2025

(22:01) Allison and Mairi discuss air quality research

(26:20) Hannah and Mairi discuss the Scottish Child Payment and foodbank usage

(31:45) Ben and Mairi discuss Economic Futures

(35:40) Live! Scottish GDP data comes out during the podcast

PARTICIPANTS

Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Emma Congreve, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

TIME STAMPS

(0:21) Summary of main announcements
(1:37) Mitigation of the two-child limit
(3:42) What has happened with the budget for housing?
(5:15) Hospitality relief - similar to relief in England & Wales?  
(8:30) Implications of omitting employer NICs from forecasts on public sector pay
(13:43) Income tax and what the SFC forecasts tell us...

FAI economist Hannah Randolph is joined by Luke Michaelides and Phil Gooding from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Consumer Prices team to talk about inflation statistics. We cover what measures of inflation are produced by ONS, how they differ, and recent developments in methodology and the data underlying the statistics. We end by discussing how inflation rates impact households and businesses.  

Participants

Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Luke Michaelides, Branch Head, Consumer Prices Development and Subgroup Production, ONS

Phil Gooding, Statistician, Consumer Prices In...

(0:00) - Introducing the GEMINOA project - background and context

(1:16) - Key findings:

(3:32) - Local policy measurement challenges:

(7:30) - Economic implications:

(11:00) - Future outlook:

In our 100th podcast episode, FAI Director Mairi Spowage and Deputy Director João Sousa join economist Hannah Randolph to discuss what was announced in the UK budget statement and how it will affect Scotland. We also talk about whether OBR publications alongside the budget shed more light on the budgetary "black hole" left by the previous government, and whether or not this budget signals a significant change in UK fiscal policy. 

Participants 

Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, Uni...

Deputy Director João Sousa joins FAI economist Hannah Randolph to discuss our expectations for the budget statement on Wednesday as well as what we can learn from past chancellors' first budgets and the role of the OBR in the budget process. 

To read more about past chancellors' first budgets, check out the details here: https://fraserofallander.org/publications/uk-budget-preview-3-first-budgets-of-post-war-chancellors/

Participants 

Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

 Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Time stamps

...

In this episode, Brodie Gillan is joined by Chirsty McFadyen, and Laura Robertson, who is a Research Manager at the Poverty Alliance. Brodie, Chirsty, and Laura discuss the Serving the Future project in the context of Challenge Poverty Week.

Serving the Future is a three-year action research project working with hospitality employers and workers funded by the Robertson Trust. The project is seeking to understand, reduce and prevent in-work poverty and identify changes that could be made within the hospitality sector.

You can find out more about Serving the Future here: https://www.servingthefuture.scot/

(00:35) Mairi discusses the headlines from our commentary publication, covering the main indicators of economic conditions

(03:55) Douglas reflects on whether this chimes with the experience he is having with clients

(07:12)  Mairi, Joao and Douglas discuss the latest data on Scottish Income Tax, and our old friend fiscal drag

(15:03) Mairi and Joao discuss our analysis of fiscal black holes

(21:33) We all speculate about the UK Budget on 30th October, focussing on the implications if capital gains tax features in the changes the Chancellor is likely to make.

(30:30) Mairi discusses some of o...

Episode Notes

In this episode, Hannah Randolph is joined by Chirsty McFadyen who leads on our learning disabilities employment research. Hannah and Chirsty discuss the Equality Act and its implementation issues, as well as some of our latest findings from speaking to employers.

We are also joined by Liam Brown, Entrepreneurial Executive at Young Enterprise Scotland, who discussed his neurodivergent condition and how language has impacted his experiences of employment.

Learning disabilities research by the Fraser of Allander Institute can be found at the following link: https://fraserofallander.org/research/adults-with-learning-disabilities-in-scotland/

...

Institute Deputy Director Emma Congreve is joined by fellow Deputy Director Joao Sousa and Director Professor Mairi Spowage to discuss all the fiscal announcements over the last month and what they mean for Scotland. 

Director Mairi Spowage and Deputy Director João Sousa join FAI economist Hannah Randolph to discuss GERS statistics for 2023-24, including the net fiscal balance, details of changes in revenues and spending, how Scotland compares to other UK nations and regions, and what it all means for the independence debate. 

GERS 2023-24 can be found on the Scottish Government website at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-gers-2023-24/

Participants 

Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

 Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Stra...

FAI Deputy Director João Sousa is joined by OBR Deputy Chief of Staff Laura Gardiner to discuss the OBR's recent work on the drivers of the growing gap in income tax paid per person in Scotland relative to the UK average.

Find the OBR's working paper on devolved income tax at: https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/forecast-methodology/#working

More OBR analysis and devolved forecasts are available at: https://obr.uk/topics/scotland-wales-and-northern-ireland/

Timestamps:

(00:45) The OBR's role in forecasting Scottish taxes

(06:00) The main drivers of differences in income ta...

Participants

 Dr Hannah Randolph, Economic Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Professor Rebecca Kay, Senior Researcher, Migration Policy Scotland

Time stamps

(0:20) Context: Immigration trends in Scotland

(1:40) What are current attitudes towards immigration like in Scotland?

(6:45) What views do people have on the contribution of immigrants to Scotland?

(14:45) What might change about the UK government's approach to immigration policy?

(20:40) Finances, employability, and poverty of immigrant households in Scotland

(27:35) What approaches might improve access to services for migrants?  

Participants

 Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

 Emma Congreve, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

 Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Time stamps

(0:20) New cabinet and expectations for a fiscal event

(6:00) What changes might Labour make to workers' rights and employment law?

(10:55) A Universal credit review and the potential for change to the two-child limit and local housing allowance

(18:20) Will we see a push for social care refo...

PARTICIPANTS

 Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

 Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

 Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

TIME STAMPS

(00:40) Main policy areas in the party manifestos

(02:00) Devolution, devolved issues, and funding

(06:00) Social security

(08:40) Q&A: What would an increase in Housing Benefit in Scotland mean for Scottish taxpayers?

(12:35) Q&A: Is there scope to implement an Essentials Guarantee?  

(15:20) Q&A: Ar...

PARTICIPANTS

 Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

 Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

 Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

TIME STAMPS

(0:20) Are plans to increase tax compliance credible?

(10:10) Can the UK government raise the global minimum tax on corporations?

(11:40) More on tax: Reform's costings & Alba's plan to halve VAT (temporarily?)

(16:50) Is the UK State Pension low compared to other countries?

(21:50) What's next in FAI...

PARTICIPANTS

 Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

 Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

 Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

TIME STAMPS

(0:20) Fiscal headroom, economic growth, and the role of the OBR forecasts

(15:55) Can the new government borrow to invest?  

(24:58) Tax proposals in party manifestos  

(34:02) What's next in the FAI General Election coverage

Participants:

   Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

   Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

   Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Timestamps:

(0:20) New inflation numbers and BoE interest rate decision

(8:40) Manifesto update: SNP, Scottish Labour, and Scottish Greens

(11:30) Fact-check: £4,800 additional on mortgage payments if the Conservatives win?

(17:20) Fact-check: Have Scottish productivity and GDP per head grown faster than the rest of the UK?

(27:40) Fiscal rules and borr...