Universal Basic Kalshi Guys

McKenna returns & the UBK Gang discusses the unfolding Texas Senate race & related markets.

The UBK Gang explores the Kalshi markets for the release of additional data sets in the Epstein Files, and who will be named in them, if released.

Evan, a Knick fan of 50 years, and Amir, who became a Knick fan last week, discuss the market for the NBA Finals and sports betting generally.

The UBK gang considers the Kalshi market for how much democracy will weaken over the remaining course of the Trump presidency, as measured by The Economist's Democracy Index? Plus a bonus exploration of how much democracy, democratic norms have already been eroded!

The UBK Gang discusses state legislative limits on sports participation by transgender athletes and the Kalshi market for the upcoming Supreme Court decisions in West Virginia v. BPJ and Little v. Hecox, in which the Court will decide whether transgender sports bans violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment and Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

The UBK Gang takes a look at early trading in the market for the 2028 Republican primary, with close looks at the potential candidacies of Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, populist media pundit Tucker Carlson, and yes, President Donald J. Trump.

The UBK Gang takes a look at early trading in the market for the 2028 Republican primary, with close looks at the potential candidacies of Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, populist media pundit Tucker Carlson, and yes, President Donald J. Trump.

In the second part of this two-part series exploring the market for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary , the UBK gang assesses the chances of the leading contenders, with a particularly close look at the markets for the 2024 nominee Kamala Harris, AOC, and the group's value play, Pete Buttigieg.

The UBK Gang take a first look at the 2028 Democratic primary, and explores the fundamental dynamics of a race in which Democrats face an incumbent, term-limited Republican president. Part 1 focuses on an examination of the long shot candidates -- those trading at five cents or less -- including Ruben Gallego, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Andy Beshear.

The UBK Gang examines whether political identity quietly shapes the way people bet on prediction markets, and whether platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are as ideologically neutral as they claim to be. The research says they're not. A study of 1.8 million Polymarket betting records found that political leanings directly translate into economic outcomes. Researchers call it "wishful thinking bias." The gang discusses how to use this to effect to shape investment strategy.

The UBK Gang explores the Kalshi market on whether Donald Trump will run for a third term – a question that sits at the intersection of prediction markets, constitutional law, and the political psychology of the MAGA movement. The market is not simply a vet betting vehicle; it's a real-time barometer on how seriously traders take the erosion of constitutional norms under this administration.

Someone turned $2.1 million into $21 million on S&P options minutes before Trump's tariff pause. Six Polymarket accounts pocketed $1.2M in the hours before Israeli strikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader. The Pam Bondi cabinet departure market jumped 18 points in a single session — before any public announcement.

Is this insider trading? Probably. Can anyone prosecute it? That's where it gets complicated.

The UBK Gang breaks down the legal gap that makes prediction market insider trading almost impossible to prosecute, why Kalshi and Polymarket are in very different positions despite being painted with the same brush, and the gr...

This morning, the President of the United States threatened to erase an entire civilization from the face of the earth. Tonight, he announced a 2-week ceasefire — 90 minutes before his own deadline. We break down every piece of today's chaos, put it in full context, and make the case for why this is one of the most important and under-reported stories in modern American history.

We are 38 days into a war most Americans didn't know they were fighting. Operation Epic Fury launched on February 28th — a coordinated US and Israeli strike campaign targeting Iran's military infrastructure, missile sites, nucl...

Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2, 2026 — and a now $2.5 million market has emerged on who comes next. On this episode of Universal Basic Kalshi Guys, Evan and Amir break down the Kalshi market for Trump's next Attorney General, walk through the leading candidates, assess their real probabilities, and ask the question the market is actually pricing: what does Trump want from the DOJ right now?

We cover: — Why Bondi was fired and what it signals about Trump's priorities at DOJ — Lee Zeldin (EPA Administrator, ~58% on Kalshi): the frontrunner, the reporting behind his lead, and why the ma...

The UBK Gang assesses the floor of Donald Trump's approval rating and value plays for the midterm elections.

Every president hits turbulence — but is Trump approaching a true political floor, or is there further to fall? In this episode, the UBK Gang breaks down the latest polling data, examines the structural limits of Trump's approval rating, and asks the question every political strategist is gaming out right now: what does a depressed presidential approval mean for down-ballot races in the midterms?

From swing-district House races to key Senate battlegrounds, the crew identifies where th...

The UBK Gang discusses the $12 million market for whether the US government will confirm the existence of aliens--one of the biggest non-sports markets on Kalshi.

The UBK Guys define lock propositions, identify their top 10 locks for the remainder of the year, and discuss how to create a diversified value portfolio.

The UBK Gang uses the markets for season 22 of The Bachelorette as a launching point for discussing emerging markets and efforts to quantify the risks of insider trading.

The UBK Guys analyze markets relating to the Iran war, including the chance of democratization and reopening of the American embassy.

Special guest Dan Bubbeo of Newsday joins the UBK Guys to preview the markets for Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Director with an eye to value.

The UBK Guys recap their positions on the shutdown, discuss the difference between gambling and investing, and analyze the open markets for the remaining cases of the Supreme Court 2025-26 term including transgender sports bans, weakening of the Voting Rights Act, and banning of mail order ballots.

The UBK Guys review their State of the Union bets including a discussion of the bandwagon effect and assess the government shutdown market.

Value propositions in the markets for who's going to attend the State of the Union address 2K26 and what DJT is likely to say. (Spoiler: We're short on Musk!)